Peace or diplomatic victory for Kremlin? Trump and Putin meet instead of a historical transaction

After months of diplomatic tattoos, US President Donald Trump announced that he will meet Russian Vladimir Putin on August 15, in Alaska to discuss the cessation of the Ukraine war.

The announcement comes against the background of a visible tone change in Washington, after the West treated Putin as a bet since 2022, when he invaded Ukraine, causing hundreds of thousands of dead and massive damage, comments New York Times.

The meeting will take place in a state bought by the US from the Russian Empire in 1867, for $ 7.2 million, when Tsar Alexander II was on the verge of bankruptcy due to war debts.

Because Ukraine will not be at the negotiation table, the chances are drastically reduced for immediate progress. However, a summit would be a significant change in US policy and the mere fact that an American president agrees to talk directly with Putin is considered a diplomatic victory for Kremlin, notes the American publication.

Why does Trump-Putin summit are taking place now?

Since the beginning of the mandate, Trump and Putin have avoided scheduling an official meeting. The Russian leader, convinced that his army advances in Ukraine, did not want to take concrete steps towards a summit. Trump, in turn, was protected to seem to accept a diplomatic defeat, although he criticized the American military aid granted to Kiev.

The direction of direction came against the background of threatening with new severe sanctions if Russia does not put an end to the war. FRUSTAT, Trump has set a deadline for Friday, threatening new sanctions if Moscow did not listen to his requests. He partially respected his threats, drastically increasing the tariffs for imports from India, as reprisals for continuing the purchase of Russian oil.

Russia's request for a summit came even when the deadline was approaching for the new sanctions promised by Trump. The news of the meeting appeared shortly after Steve Witkoff, the special envoy of the American leader, had a meeting with Putin at Kremlin on Wednesday, although none of the parties gave details about what they discussed.

What does little want?

Experts believe that Putin could use the meeting as a postponement tactic and to make their relationship with the US.

The summit corresponds to Putin's vision of the world, according to which the great powers should determine his own spheres of influence, as Stalin met with President Franklin D. Roosevelt and with British Prime Minister Winston Churchill in Yalta in 1945 to divide post-war Europe.

Putin believes that the vast nuclear arsenal of Russia still makes a world power, even though it produces very little of what the rest of the world wants, apart from energy.

Putin, who described the disintegration of the 1991 Soviet Union as “the largest geopolitical catastrophe”, has tried for decades to reaffirm Moscow's control.

Its list of requests is predictable, comments NYT: the recognition of the annexation of East Ukraine, the exclusion of the NATO Kiev, the limitation of the Ukrainian army and maintaining a friendly political leadership to Moscow.

What is the stake for Trump?

Trump promised in the campaign that he would stop the war “in 24 hours”. The deadline has passed long, but he is still considered a supreme negotiator. He also did not hide the fact that he wants the Nobel Peace Prize and has linked his merit to this prize to his efforts in Ukraine, among other conflicts.

After a period when he seemed to tilt to the position of the Kremlin, even with the attempt to intimidate Volodimir Zelenski in the Oval Bureau, Trump recently criticized the Russian bombings on Ukrainian cities, calling them “scandalous” and “disgusting.”

This week, the White House leader returned to the theme of peace. “Everyone agrees that this war has to end and we will work in this regard in the coming days and weeks,” Trump wrote on his social platform.

What chances does Trump have to bring peace to Ukraine?

The summit will not include Ukraine or European allies, which drastically reduces the prospects of an agreement. Despite the enormous losses that the war has caused Ukraine in terms of human lives and destruction, the polls indicate that a solid majority of the Ukrainians rejects the idea of making territorial and other concessions required by the Kremlin.

The refusal of both parties to make concessions has long blocked any effort to negotiate an agreement, and at present there are few signs of optimism.

“Will it be a real change in the conflict resolution? Or just a new, noise and confusion start?” Asks Russian tabloid Moskovsky Komsomolets.

In a first reaction, Ukrainian President Volodimir Zelenski said on Saturday that any solution that does not include Ukraine will be “a solution against peace”, according to the BBC.

Ukraine “will not give up its territory to the occupants,” Zelenski said on Telegram, after Trump reported that Ukraine could have to give up the territories in a peace agreement with Russia.