Mariia Tsiptsura, Onet: In recent days we have been carefully observing the development of the situation regarding a possible suspension of weapons. Do you think that we can talk about progress on the peaceful resolution of the conflict?
Volodymyr Fesenko: Current events can be treated as a revival of the negotiating process. There is a chance and a little chance of suspending weapons. In my opinion, this is the only option to end the war. Of course, there are both opportunities and risks. I do not expect a quick solution to all problems and the rapid end of the war.
What risks do you mean?
On the part of Putin, it can be an attempt to drag negotiations, distracted attention, take the initiative – as was the case in May. At that time, Putin replied to the proposal of Zelanski and Europeans regarding the suspension of weapons that negotiations in Istanbul would take place. It did nothing except the exchange of prisoners. I think the current situation is similar – he is trying to take the initiative again. It is a way to neutralize the risk of sanctions, deteriorate relations with Trump. Further negotiations do not guarantee anything, because the war can take place in parallel.
The next risk is insidious maneuvers. Vladimir Putin can propose “peace initiatives”, which at first glance seem attractive, especially for Trump, but in fact they are a trap. They will anticipate unilateral concessions from Ukraine without any reliable security guarantees. And if Ukraine refuses – he will accuse us of reluctance to peace. Then he will try to influence Trump's position again and convince him that Ukraine does not want the end of the war. In this way he will try to change Trump's policy again. Putin is dissatisfied with the turnover in the case of Trump, because this does not correspond to the interests of Russia. It is too early to draw conclusions. Currently, a very sharp tactical fight begins around the further development of the negotiating process.
“Freezing the conflict is the only way to end the war”
How do you assess information about the points of the peace plan that the United States was to propose Russia? Do they assume large concessions from Russia?
For now, I can't judge it because information in various media is contradictory. The situation is changing. It is necessary to seriously analyze the proposals and conditions of the end of the war when the positions are officially announced.
Could Ukraine agree to suspend a weapon?
In my opinion, the only realistic path to the end of the war is the suspension of weapons. We can call it a truce. However, a peace agreement should not be expected that will solve all issues. We have a lot of issues with Russia in which there is an impasse, for example in the status of occupied territories – there is no compromise. Pages positions are diametrically different. We don't recognize de iure [zgodnie z prawem] None of the occupied territories for Russian. Freezing the conflict is the only way to end the war. And it doesn't matter how many years to write on paper. You can write everything, but nobody knows what will be in 5, 10, 20 years.
Recently, there is a lot of news about the possible suspension of weapons in the air. Can we call it the first step to complete weapon suspension?
Yes. The idea of a gradual suspension of weapons – first in the air and at sea – appeared for the first time in France and Great Britain in March. The idea is completely pragmatic and practical. We must understand that the suspension of weapons on land is an extremely complicated task in terms of organization and technical. Immediate achievement of complete suspension of weapons is almost impossible.
There will be numerous violations on land, which will discredit the whole process. To agree the weapon suspension on land, means of control, communication means, sanctions in the event of violations, etc. are necessary. Americans proposed demilitarized zones, control of drone starts and other security. This is realistic, but requires a lot of effort. It's hard work. Therefore, from this point of view, the gradual suspension of the weapon, starting from the air, is the optimal solution. Controlling the suspension of weapons in the air is much easier, especially by recognizing the US satellite.
Will Russia and Ukraine agree?
It depends. Some believe that the suspension of weapons is beneficial for Russia – they claim that it will allow her to regain strength. But we could also regain strength. It is said that Russia will be able to gather drones, but Ukraine will do it too. And who now needs to regain strength – Russia or us?
Vladimir Putin
Our losses among civilians as a result of raids are much greater. Only this year Ukraine lost hundreds of civilians. Russia uses rockets, not just drones. And the destruction in Russia is smaller than in Ukraine. Therefore, the suspension of raids is in the interest of Ukraine, especially if the US is a guarantee.
And where are the “red lines” of Ukraine? What will Kyiv not agree to?
We do not consider any occupied territory as Russian. We can agree to the suspension of weapons, and these territories will be for an indefinite time under the control of the enemy. However, I believe that one should not agree to specific years – deadlines should not be the subject of discussion, because it is a way to indirectly recognize these territories as Russian. And in legal terms, we will never consider these territories to be Russian.
Donald Trump
The second red line – we do not take any obligations regarding the change of foreign policy course. Joining NATO or the EU is a sovereign law of Ukraine and we will not give up it. We should decide about our country, not others. Like internal issues – the status of languages, heroes, state structure. This should not be the subject of negotiations, but the matter of our internal sovereignty.
Is Putin's meeting with Zelanski possible? The expert indicates the condition
How real is the meeting of Trump and Putin? How can this affect Ukraine and does it allow the thought of a possible meeting of three sides?
The probability of meeting Trump and Putin is high. In Moscow, the place was reportedly even established. This meeting has been talked about since February, and the fact that it did not take place is Russia's tactical game. Now Putin apparently decided to act differently – reformatt the situation, influence Trump and change his attitude.
Putin's meeting with Zelanski is only possible provided that a real chance for an agreement on the suspension of weapons. Our goal is not the meeting itself, but the acceptable conditions of this meeting.
Wołodymyr Zelanski
The meeting of US and Russian presidents can be both an opportunity and risk for Ukraine. Putin can try to impose one -sided conditions on Trump that will not be possible to accept by Ukraine. It is important that we set red lines with the participation of European partners. We will not agree to everything that Russia from the US agrees. I think Trump understands that he can't ignore us. However, there is a high risk. Putin's insidious maneuvers may occur when he proposes an allegedly peaceful initiative, which will be a trap for us and will be aimed at provoking the conflict between the US and Ukraine.
I have a lot of doubts whether Russia pays to start real negotiations.
Negotiations may start, but they will not guarantee the suspension of weapons. It is possible that Putin will agree to suspend a weapon in the air, and on land the war will continue. An important nuance is that Putin reacts to Trump. He doesn't ignore him. Putin is not indifferent to Trump's indifferent conditions because he does not want to confront the United States. For him it is a risk and a problem he wants to avoid. This gives you a chance that after some time we can gradually suspend weapons.
