Trump may have fewer cards than it seems. Moscow still keeps him in a handful
Stoic statements flowed from the mouths of Moscow officials who rejected this movement as Another western bluff And they claimed that they were fully prepared – even despite the upcoming new date on August 8.
However, the markets were not fooled.
Rubel lost almost 3 percent. in relation to the dollar. The profitability of Russian treasury bonds increased rapidly, and 10-year OFZ bonds exceeded 50 points. The country's main stock index fell by 1.5 percent, and the declines were driven by energy giants and state banks in the reaction of investors to growing geopolitical risk.
The President of the United States doubled on July 31, declaring that the US would definitely impose sanctions. “I think that what they do is disgusting,” he added, referring to the ongoing bombings of Ukraine.
Secondary sanctions not only block American trade with Russia, but also They threaten to cut off foreign enterprises from the entire US financial systemif they do not comply with restrictions. This exerts real pressure on enterprises in China, India and Turkey, which are the main buyers of Russian oil and help finance the war machine of Vladimir Putin.
Moscow's connections mosaic
China and Türkiye made it clear that they would not bend against the pressure of the United States – at least not in public. China is still importing Russian oil worth billions of dollars, and Türkiye maintains commercial relations with Moscow and does not join western sanctions.
However, India began to change their position. According to reports over the past week, several Indian refineries suspended the purchases of Russian oil, which may mean that the threat of secondary sanctions is already beginning to bring results. According to sources cited by the Bloomberg agency, the Indian government also recommended refiners to start preparations for obtaining oil from sources other than Russia
However, on Saturday, representatives of the authorities said that India would continue to buy cheap Russian oil, claiming that economic policy cannot be dictated by another state.
Despite the external attitude of tenacity in India and other countries, there are signs of growing anxiety. If Trump keeps his word The consequences can be serious: limited access to the American financial system, high duties and chilling effect for banks, insurers and forwarders enabling trade with Russia.
Secondary sanctions can hit Russia much more than the sale of oil because they will be aimed at wider network of countrieswhich still trade with Moscow. From machines and electronics from Germany and Italy to food and industrial goods from Brazil and Uzbekistan – Russia is based on mosaice of connections to maintain its economy at the war level.
The opposite effect
Cutting access to the American financial system could stop flows, increasing the risk for companies and banks in countries that still run business with Russia, even if their rule turn a blind eye. Such consequences are difficult to ignore even for the largest economies.
However, there are serious reasons to doubt how far Trump will go in enforcing full secondary sanctions. China and India are of key importance for the wider strategic interests of the USA and it is not clear whether the president is really ready to risk wider cooperation with these countries just to punish Russia.
Washington also realizes that secondary sanctions for the Kremlin's trade partners can bring the opposite effect to the intended, causing increase in costs for American consumers and enterprises.
US President Donald Trump, 30 July 2025
Despite this, pressure on the Russian energy sector, which finances about 40 percent. federal budget, is growing before the deadline set by Trump.
The latest EU sanction package reduced the price of Russian oil prices to $ 47.60. (PLN 176), placed over 100 tankers on a black list and forbade the import of refined fuels related to Russian pus – all this is intended to cut off Putin's income during the war.
In combination with the rapidly cooling economy and the threat of Trump imposing secondary sanctions, Moscow can head towards the storm. Pressure is currently from two sides, and the war hardened by Russia may have difficulty staying on the surface.
The Kremlin reacted to the Ultimatum of Trump with a mixture of surprise and threats.
Kremlin's answer
Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov publicly challenged the logic of changing the deadlines by Trump. He stated that Moscow simply wants to “understand” the way the US President. His tone, however, was disrespectful. The minister emphasized that Russia has already survived unprecedented sanctions and “It will also cope with new means”.
Indeed, Russia survived 17 rounds of EU sanctions aimed at its energy, financial, defensive and hybrid abilities – part of a wider wave of almost 20,000. restrictions imposed on her enterprises and natural persons around the world.
Dmitry Medvedev showed more combat, who laughed at Trump's warning as “theater ultimatum” and warned the USA “playing in the ultimatum with Russia.”
The applauding answer did not come in words, but in Blood spill. Just a few hours after the last demand for the suspension of weapons by Trump, Moscow began a new wave of raids to Ukraine, attacking the hospital in Kamieńskie and the prison in Zaporozhye, killing at least 17 people.
The Kremlin's message was brutal and direct. Clearly reminded that Russia's war goals remain unchanged. Moscow wants to break the will of Ukraine, paralyze her infrastructure and destroy its sovereignty.
Putin will not consider the suspension of weapons until he takes full control over four regions of Ukraine, which he currently considers Russian – Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporży and Kherson. And taking into account the current momentum, there is no reason to think that he will stop at it.
But the real question is: will Trump really keep his word and hit Putin where it hurts?
Political theater
Given his long history of respect and open admiration for Putinwhich he called “brilliant”, “clever” and “genius”, it is difficult to say whether Trump's last moves signal a real change in politics, or are just another act of political theater.
His repeated flattery towards the Russian leader even raises provocative questions whether he does not act as a secret agent of Russia or simply stags the spectacle to divert attention from the ongoing Epstein scandal.
Many people still think that the Kremlin has compromising materials on Trump, which they think explains his extremely servile attitude towards Putin. Sensational reports on the infamous Dossier Steele have never been confirmed. However, years of investigation failed to completely dispel the suspicions that Moscow has a tender for Trumpand his existing mild position towards Russia maintains this theory.
Either way, the upcoming term seems to be a more spectacular move aimed at attracting the attention of the media than a serious step towards a significant change in politics.
Even Trump himself, usually a definite supporter of sanctions, admitted on July 30: “I don't know if the sanctions bother him,” sounding less like the commander -in -chief, and more like a partner who is still trying to figure out Putin's internal thoughts.
Although this last gesture suggests some distance to many years of worship for the Kremlin, history may indicate something else. It is more likely that it will be symbolic gesture – Taco [Trump Always Chickens Out, Trump zawsze się wycofuje] – than a real move. In other words, it will be a slight reprimand rather than a definite action that could really change the course of war.
