22 million tons of crude oil and 5 billion cubic meters. Natural gas – the discovery of the Canadian Central European Petroleum company announced on July 21, which found deposits in the Baltic Sea in the Location of Wolin East, about six km north of Świnoujście, moved all Polish public opinion. With oil import of 96-97 percent consumption and gas at 82 percent (The numbers in the recently published collective report cites the Energy Forum) The prospect of local operation aroused hopes for strengthening the fuel and energy sovereignty of our country.
“If the information is confirmed, it will actually be the largest oil deposit in Poland from the previous ones” – on July 21, Leszek Wiwała, president of the Polish Organization of Oil Industry and Trade, said on July 21, in the context of gas deposits, adding that “a larger scale of satisfaction of demanding demand in Poland is also a step in the right direction.” It is the growing addiction to import and unstable prices on international markets, in addition to environmental and climate issues (methane emissions), is the greatest accusation of gas energy – covering at least part of the needs of extraction in the country would help partially limit this problem.
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Fossil fuels and the climate
Despite emotions, commentators from the beginning pointed out that enthusiasm and “dreams about power” could be premature. As he noted, it is not yet known whether the Baltic oil from the Świnoujście area will meet the quality requirements of Polish refinery, and significant investments in infrastructure are also needed to be extracted (as to the last, Central European Petroleum has announced the search for partners in Poland, and Orlen also expressed its interest in the discovery).
A certain reserve was also kept by prof. Krzysztof Szamałek, director of the State Geological Institute – the National Research Institute. “Without checking by the State Geological Service, the credibility and quality of the results of geological work and obtained data, we treat media reports with interest, some enthusiasm, but also far -reaching caution,” commented the scientist. He noted that only full documentation will show a real scale of discoveries and its possible consequences, and this is a long -term process.
So you still have to wait for the full assessment of the effects of July sensation. With the fact that its own extraction of energy raw materials has advantage over imports, it is difficult to argue, the possible oil-gas “boom” on the Baltic Sea seems to be contrary to the long-term goals of climate and energy policy.
Contrary to appearances, these are not limited only to the European Union with its goal of zero net emissions in the middle of this century. Under the declaration of gradual departure from fossil fuels at the global climate conference in Dubai in 2023, representatives of almost 200 countries, including Poland, signed.
In turn, in the perspective of 2050, a global temperature increase of 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to the pre -industrial era obliges its signatories the Paris Agreement. Meanwhile, in 2024, global greenhouse gas emissions broke their next record – according to Global Carbon Budget estimates, the total amount of CO2 issued amounted to 41.6 billion tons compared to 40.6 billion tonnes a year earlier. As for the pace of progressive warming, the latest report of the World Meteorological Organization shows 70 percent. The probability of exceeding 1.5 degrees by average temperature in 2025-2029.
“Poland will not be a topus”
Purchased transport – in its road, air and sea edition – in 2022 he was responsible for about 23 percent. global CO2 emissions, as reported by the International Energy Agency. In Europe, which has managed to significantly decarbonize its electricity, it is this sector that is today the greatest issuer.
Is there a place here for other significant investments than electrification or the use of alternative fuels? Michał Smoleń, manager of the Energia and climate research program at the Instrat Foundation reminds: – The departure from the large -scale mining of fossil fuels is a fundamental goal of climate policy. The exhaustion of available deposits is not enough – we discovered them enough to lead to catastrophic warming (…). He adds that “ultimately the operation of new sources is to stop paying.” – (…) Part of coal, gas and oil will remain in the ground. Not all deposits are already used for economic reasons – he indicates.
As for the information, Central European Petroleum Smoleń states that they should not be overestimated. –“The largest will be folded in Poland “is simply a low -suspended bar. National mining satisfies about 5 percent our demand for oil. If the discovered deposit is exploited – and there is still a long way – it can increase this factor by several percentage points. Impact on the supply of Poland with natural gas would be even lower. So we are not talking about any hydrocarbon revolution, but only about a chance for some limitation of dependence on fuel imports. From the perspective of an ordinary recipient, the impact on fuel prices will not be felt – comments the expert.
When it comes to keeping atmospheric principles, Smoleń is a realist – where there are conditions, the operation of fossil fuels continues.
– Countries with competitive price resources of gas, oil or even coal, usually at least continue to have existing mining. Poland will not be a prime that will also be a primary prymus here. Poles still consider themselves a society in their achievements, their support for more decisive activities for the climate is limited, and there is a thread of energy security – he states.
He emphasizes that the possible extraction of deposits discovered close to Świnoujście must take place in accordance with the highest safety standards, environmental standards and protection against methane leaks. – Either way, we must also speed up the transformation on the demand side, in energy, industry or transport – sums up Smoleń, pointing to alternative directions for gas and oil.
Electromobility? “We are in the good time”
We asked Maciej Gisa, PR Director and Communication at the Polish Association of New Mobility Association to whether the possible increase in national oil production can be a threat to road transport electrification. Our interlocutor denies.
– The size of the discovered deposit corresponds to the scale of this year's oil consumption in Poland. So you can't expect that we will use it for many years. The development of the new mobility sector progresses regardless of this. We are currently at the good time; In June, the share of electric vehicles in the sale of new cars was 7.6 percent, which was a record result for Polish conditions. After a hard 2024, a clear upward trend can be seen – he comments.
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The good condition of the industry in Gisa's assessment is positively affected by state funding for the purchase of electric vehicles, the development of charging infrastructure or energy networks. – We achieved a threshold of 10,000 charging points in the country. We must accelerate the electrification of transport and slowly catch up with Western European markets, which are today much more developed than ours – he sums up.
“2050 raised into consciousness”
Could mining projects count on the favor of financial institutions, which, above all in Europe, also have in mind the requirements of green politics and reducing pressure on the climate and the environment? Piotr Kowalik, ESG Manager at Pekao Investment Banking indicates that a lot depends on the time horizon of the investment.
– Certainly in 2030 oil and gas will still be raw materials relevant to the Polish economy. Less strictly approaching climate issues, for example, American ones, could be ready to emerge funds to extract them in Poland. Over the years, however, the role of these raw materials should fall; In the energy energy, gas is to play the role of transitional fuel, in turn, if electrification, alternative fuels and hydrogen are successful in transport and industry, oil will start to lose its raison d'etat. Mining projects can therefore lose their business rationality – says Kowalik.
The expert gives an example of Orlen – related to the Oil & Gas giant industry, which in his strategy also declares the purpose of zero -emission in the middle of the century. – The year 2050 as the border date of climate neutrality, after all, raised our consciousness. Trump's return to power in the USA, the narrative about the Omnibus package in Europe, and finally the ambiguous attitude of our government made a lot of confusion, but some deeper trends managed to consolidate in business – he assesses.
For now, the success of the Wolin East deposit is counting regional business from West Pomerania. In the published commentary, Hanna Mojsiuk, president of the Northern Chamber of Commerce in Szczecin, states that if the Central European Petroleum reports are confirmed, “the West Pomeranian Voivodeship will be even on the highway for economic progress and even more dynamic development.”
“The extraction of oil and natural gas will pay attention to our region of potential investors of the energy industry even more, and the economic use of the Baltic Sea pool will be even wider. It is also new jobs and a gigantic opportunity for companies from Poland in participation in processes related to the service of this oil and gas deposit” – he states, announcing an unpopular” economic and investment breakthrough “for the region.
Business representative's fears raise the likely doubts of the German side in the process of obtaining a cross -border environmental decision. “Investments cannot be done to the environment, hence the consultation with the local governments of Wolin, Świnoujście and more broadly the Marshal's Office, so that the industrial and energy investment does not reflect a ricochet on our tourism,” adds Mojsiuk. According to the activist, estimated four years to start the start of extraction, among others for geological research and social dialogue. What next with the Baltic “Drill, Baby, Drill” – time will show.
