Consumer inflation in Poland (CPI indicator) in July 2025 amounted to 3.1 percent. year on year – Gus said on Thursday morning, publishing preliminary data (so -called Flash). This means a very clear drop in the indicator against June, when CPI inflation amounted to 4.1 percent. percent year on year. Reading is higher than the expectations of economists: the average forecast assumed a decrease to 2.8 percent, and some even pointed to the possibility of going down to 2.5 percent. Full data on CPI inflation for July will publish the Central Statistical Office on August 14.
This is the lowest level of inflation in Poland for a year, when due to the effects of the database the indicator recorded a large, but only temporary decrease to the NBP target (it is 2.5 percent with tolerated deviations +/- 1 percentage point if this episode turned off, July inflation would be the lowest from March 2021.
Preliminary data shows that in an annual basis of the price of food and non -alcoholic drinks in July 2025 they grew by 4.9 percent. (just like in June). Energy carriers increased year -on -year by 2.4 percent. (against 1.1 percent in the previous month). Fuels for private means of transport made ahead of 6.8 percent year on year. (due to the increase in June by 3.5 percent).
On a monthly basis, the average prices of consumer goods and services in July 2025 grew by 0.3 percent, That is, more than the forecast of 0.2 percent assumed. For comparison, in June the monthly dynamics was only 0.1 percent.
In view of the previous month, the prices of food and non -alcoholic drinks fell in July 2025 by 0.6 percent. (increase 0.1 percent in June). Energy carriers increased by 1.1 percent (in June they got cheaper by 0.3 percent). Fuels for private means of transport increased by 3.5 percent for a month. (compared to a 1.3 % inheritance in June).
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Own study based on NBP and CSO data.
“A lot of variability in data is generated by prices of energy carriers. On the one hand, the database effect related to partial frostbite of carriers in July 2024 will expire. In the opposite direction, the return to the power fee bills and frostbite system heat prices.
It is important not only that inflation has returned to the NBP inflational target, but also that – as economists and the central bank itself forecast – will remain in it for the next quarters. According to the July NBP projection, the average inflation in the third and fourth quarter of 2025 will amount to 2.9 percent, respectively. and 3.6 percent (The higher result in the last three months of this year is to be the result of further increases in energy prices, which, however, probably will not happen). In 2026, according to the NBP, it is in particular quarters: 3.5 percent, 3.2 percent, 3.1 percent. and 2.7 percent In 2027 it is to be 2.6 percent, 2.5 percent, 2.3 percent and 2.1 percent
