Indirect taxes are a total of nearly four fifth tax revenues of the central budget. To complete this year's assumptions, in the second half of the year the average monthly influx from this group of tributes would have to amount to about PLN 41 billion, and therefore definitely more than the average PLN 34.5 billion listed in the first half of the year.
At the same time, there was a discussion in the Sejm on the implementation of the budget for 2024 and granting the government discharge. The political dispute focused again on the condition of the income and the scale of the deficitwhich shows that the subject of tax collection for years remains the axis of the dispute, regardless of the balance of power.
In mid -July, the Ministry of Finance donated preliminary budget data for the first half of 2025. The deficit amounted to PLN 119.7 billion, which corresponds to 41.5 percent. annual plan. Total income reached PLN 264.2 billion, and expenses nearly PLN 384 billion, which is about 41.7 percent. annual plan on the expenditure side. Pursuant to the Budget Act, the state's revenues were scheduled for PLN 632.85 billion on 2025, expenses on PLN 921.62 billion, and the deficit at PLN 288.77 billion.
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It is better, but still poor
The ministry also reported that VAT income is higher year -on -year, and May brought an increase in this item by 19.7 percent. In terms of y/y, which was associated with with the reconstruction of retail sales.
Simultaneously Actions against abuse are announced, including the so -called VAT carousels. The ministry indicates that any further “sealing” has limited potential, which is why a greater weight will rest with economic activity and stable consumption.
The question remains about the reaction to a possible gap on the income side. One of the variants is the amendment to the budget, which in practice would mean an increase in this year's deficit above the threshold of PLN 300 billion, although Correction and shifts within expenses and between parts of the budget are also possible. At the same time, work is underway on the budget for 2026, in which the ministry should present updated assumptions along with the assessment of the plan to 2025. This will allow you to better estimate the discrepancies towards the primary quantities.
Medium -term images also appear against the background of short -term challenges. In the latest analytical materials, Bank Pekao assumes a scenario of a higher deficit and indicates several factors behind the revision of the fiscal path:
- The implementation of the state budget in 2025, weaker than the assumptions (including larger transfers to local governments and the revenues from certain taxes lower than expectations)
- Higher starting point after the result of the public finance sector for 2024.
- European return towards a more flexible fiscal policy in connection with defense and infrastructure
- Less probability of quick fiscal consolidation in Poland
According to these forecasts, the report of public debt to GDP would increase from approx. 58 percent. in 2025 to 63 percent in 2026 and 67 percent in 2027, i.e. above the reference threshold from Maastricht at 60 %, although still below the EU average estimated at about 81 percent. Pekao also assumes stabilization of debt service costs near 2.7 percent. GDP per year – in the Maksimów region listed during the European debt crisis.
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What about the excessive deficit procedure
On the plane of fiscal rules, Poland is covered by the excessive deficit procedure, but at the same time has the opportunity to use the so -called national output clause. This mechanism allows you to move away from the adjustment path by the amount of actual increase in defense expenditure to the limit of 1.5 percent. GDP.
In the cited calculations It is assumed that in 2026 it will be possible to use this clause to the full extent. Despite this, when maintaining current fiscal tendencies, the very use of the exception may be insufficient to fit into Maastricht limits, which means maintaining the requirements related to the procedure.
Important reservations apply, however, the structure of this year's result. After the first half of the year, the deficit at the level of less than PLN 120 billion remains in line with the proportion of “half of the year”, but the profile of the influx of income – including variability between individual tax categories – can cause transient liquidity voltages on the budget side. In the second half of 2025 The Ministry of Finance is therefore facing the task of balancing revenues and expenses while maintaining the stability of VAT consumption and improving the position in income taxes.
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Against the background of the whole image, you can also see more resistant areas. Corporate income tax revenues after six months reached PLN 36 billion, which means the implementation of 51.3 percent. annual plan of PLN 71 billion. This result suggests a decent condition of enterprises despite the unfavorable surroundings.
According to the data, the tax collection of financial institutions is also efficient: PLN 3.5 billion in the middle of the year corresponds to 50.5 percent. plan (PLN 6.9 billion for the entire 2025), which supports the application on the stable situation of the banking sector. In conjunction with the current revenue and the financial plan for the rest of the year, this gives a more complete but demanding picture. The foundations of the budget are still based on indirect taxes, and the success of the second half of the year will depend on maintaining higher than in the first six months, average monthly revenues and on cautious expenditure management.
