Russia's summer offensive continues. The expert talks about the script dangerous to Ukraine
Mariia Tsiptsura: Recently, there is talk of Russia's new summer offensive. Can they intensify the fights?
Dmytro Snegiryov: They never reduced the intensity of warfare. Each month, Ukraine suffers territorial losses. Of course, these numbers are different. In June we lost over 500 km2. The most critical in this respect was November 2024, when we lost 726.5 km2. This means that the offensive continues – it has not stopped for an hour or a day.
Another thing is that the Russians have changed tactics. They are now trying to expand the area of activities, in particular to new territories: Sumski and Kharkov circuits, there is also a threat to reaching the Dnipropetrovsk region – the front line has increased by 200 km due to their actions in these regions. This is a change in tactics and strategies – now the Russians are trying to create preliminary conditions not for the buffer zone, as the Russian dictator says, but for the so -called territorial exchange.
This means that possible tactical successes in the Sumian, Kharkiv circuits and – God forbid – Dneprop “will be used as levers of military and political pressure to Ukrainian leadership. According to their logic – if you do not accept the ultimatum about the withdrawal of the Ukrainian armed forces from the Donetsk region, we will increase the scale of fighting. This is exactly what information about a telephone conversation between Putin and Trump, in which the term “60 days” mentioned.
Information leakage on the American side? “They create a trap for Russians”
This is true – there was information that the Russian Federation intends to reach the administrative borders of the Donetsk region within 60 days.
This is the so -called controlled information leak through the American side. He creates a diplomatic trap for Russia, which is unable to realize this scenario. I'm already saying why.
At the moment, the Russians are facing the task of storming the largest urban agglomerations-Pokrowsk (Pokrowsk, Dobropole, Myrnograd) and the Slavic-Mustratorsk agglomeration. These are four huge industrial cities in the Donetsk region, which are under the control of the Ukrainian armed forces. I remind you that the battle of Bachmut lasted nine months, and he is smaller than the Constantineówka herself. That is why we can estimate that reaching the administrative borders of the Donetsk region will take at least 3-4 years. In addition, during the battle of Bachmut, Russian losses reached up to 100,000. If we are now talking about four cities, it can be 400 thousand. Added to this is the Pokrowska agglomeration, consisting of three cities. And the Russians are aware of this.
But will they still be able to take over more territories and achieve their goals by increasing pressure?
Their main problem is time that does not work in favor. There is a misconception that Russia “plays a long game” and has a safety margin. That's not true. The local economy is overheated. And this is what prompts them to intensify the war in new areas – the goal is to create preliminary conditions for the exchange of territories. This is the most dangerous scenario for Ukraine.
The expert talks about the script dangerous to Ukraine
Why is he the most dangerous?
Because it involves the extension of the area of activities. If we make concessions under external or internal pressure, we will give the most industrialized centers. The Slavic-Mustrators' agglomeration is not only metallurgy, coal mining, processing, but also the largest shale gas deposits in Europe. There is also the direction of Pokrowski. There is also a lot going on there, because we have the largest deposits of lithium ore. In addition, there is a large coal coal extraction center. In other words – Russia's intention is to solve your own economic problems in this way and that is why this scenario is so dangerous.
We have already talked about changing tactics, but if we return to the topic of the great summer offensive, do you think that Russians can even increase its intensity? Will they have enough resources?
And how much more intensive can it happen? According to intelligence data, the number of the Russian army increased – it was 550,000, now it is 700 thousand. plus 110 thousand reserves. However, their resources are still not unlimited. The key is the local economy, which does not stick to poop. The budget deficit is already 2.2 percent. GDP (over $ 55 billion). This is a serious matter. Currently 6.6 percent GDP is spent on defense, which is the highest result since the Cold War. So in fact the summer offensive is already underway. And it will not become more intense.
And in what areas do they arrange the reserves? They informed about 160,000 new soldiers.
On all, but the main priority is the Donetsk direction. They focus on this.
And how far can they go in the Sumski and Kharkiv regions?
Currently, the progress in the summary region has been detained. The plan to create a buffer zone is not implemented. The depth of their attack is a maximum of 5 km. The counterattack made Ukraine to take several places, and the situation was stabilized. That is why the Russians focused their attention from the direction of Kharkiv. They did it to extend our operational reserves to several areas at the same time and try to get us tired. However, it is difficult for me to say how the situation will develop. Everything will depend on the availability of reserves in the Ukrainian army.
And now the last thing: assessing the opponent's operational reserves and the current intensity of the fighting, how long will he be able to maintain this pace?
This will depend on many factors, including the effectiveness of sanctions and sources of financing. The Russians have sufficient working force. All this is about money. What counts is the effectiveness of the 18th Sanctions Package, as well as the sanctions promised by Trump. If they are implemented, it will affect. But the Russians will use at least another 40 days to improve their tactical positions.
