Putin will only negotiate as a result of major military failures on the front, say US military experts
A peace negotiated in Ukraine will only be possible after Russia will undergo significant losses on the battlefield – it is the conclusion reiterated by the Institute for War Study (ISW), the American think tank specialized in military analysis.
Russia continues to hit Ukraine/Photo: AFP
According to a new report, only a “adequate and time” military support from the West, corroborated with repeated defeats of the Russian troops, could force Vladimir Putin to accept that a military victory against Ukraine is no longer possible and to finally sit at the negotiation table.
The statement comes against the background of a new diplomatic and military effort launched by the United Kingdom. The British Defense Minister John Healey announced, at the July 21 Contact Group meeting, the start of a “50 -day campaign” meant to accelerate the armament deliveries to Kiev and, in parallel, to create strategic pressure on Moscow.
Healey also referred to a proposal carried by former US President Donald Trump, who would aim to impose 100% secondary rates on Russia's commercial partners, if no clear progress to a peace solution is made within 50 days.
But ISW points out that such changes cannot occur in a short horizon.
The Kremlin relies on a war of wear, not on peace
US analysts warn that defeats that would force Putin to rethink their military goals cannot be achieved “in a few weeks”, but require “months or even more seasons of sustained military campaigns.” This means that Western allies engage in constant support, not just symbolic, in terms of armament, logistics and reconstruction of Ukraine's operational capacity.
“Only under the conditions in which Ukraine will have the ability to carry out efficient and supported operations, can the premises of some truly decisive Russian military failures appear.”shown in the report.
At the same time, ISW notes that Russia's participation in the next international negotiations is treated with a low interest, reflected in the composition of the delegation – one of medium level, without real decision -making weight.
According to analysts, the Kremlin maintains its strategy of delaying any real form of peace. Behind the rhetoric about negotiations is, in fact, the desire to gain time to continue the offensive in Ukraine and, possibly, to obtain territorial or diplomatic concessions from Kiev and West.
“ISW continues to appreciate that Moscow uses the diplomatic mechanism exclusively as a pressure and postponement tool. The Kremlin is not currently interested in an authentic negotiated solution”, It is shown in the published analysis.
In this context, the ISW report reaffirms an essential idea: there is no realistic route to the end of the war without Russia being confronted with tangible failures on the fighter ground. And these failures will not be possible without a real mobilization of Western support – consistent, continuous and well coordinated.
