Hatred for Russia can combine two enemies. This is a blow to Putin

Ashley Davis05/07/2025

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The rule of Armenia and Azerbaijan, who spent most of the last 35 years in conflict, now have Common goal of hostility: Kremlin.

Azerbaijanian court doctors stated that one of the deaths was caused by injuries during the custody, and the other was assigned to a heart attack after post -traumatic shock.

Baku reaction was fast. On June 28, Azerbaijani officials called on Russian Chargé d'Affaires in connection with the accident, and the next day they canceled the visit of high -level parliamentarians in Moscow, citing “violence against Azeri”. Then, on June 30, the Security Services arrested other employees financed by Moscow Sputnik, a Russian information service, which had a closing order a few weeks earlier.

Prosecutor General Baku announced on July 1 that he had initiated investigation on “torture and murders committed with exceptional cruelty to the citizens of the Azerbaijan Republic and people of Azeri origin.”

Increasing tensions

As part of an activity that seems to be a retaliation demonstration of strength on the part of Baku, a group of Russian citizens in Azerbaijan was detained on charges of drug trafficking – this allegation is routinely used in matters related to critics or opponents of the government. Published films show detained Russians who are forced to walk and squat in a humiliating way. The detainees appeared in court with visible traces of beating. Independent Russian media identified several men as IT specialists who left Russia after the announcement of military mobilization in 2022.

Russia reacted with further detention.

Azerbaijan media also contributed to anti -Russian campaign. On June 29, the Azerbaijan State Press Agency has published an article entitled “The same Russia, the same scenario: chauvinism and cruelty”, in which the murders of poor treatment of economic migrants and invasion of Ukraine were associated.

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In an opinion -forming article, which was published on the pro -government service of Aze.media, it was found that “the massacre made by the Russian security forces in Ekaterinburg cannot be considered an isolated case, but this is part a broader scheme“, and then an event was associated with the shooting of the Azerbaijani airlines civil aircraft (AZAL) by Russian air defense in December 2024.

Indeed, relations between Russia and Azerbaijan are tense since Russia she refused to quickly confess to the disasterin which 38 passengers and crew members were killed. Russia's poor reaction met with condemnation from the strong Azerbaijan President Ilham Alijew, who at the last moment canceled his participation in the important parade on the occasion of the victory day in Moscow in May.

Russia versus Armenia

In turn, relations between Armenia and Russia They have deteriorated since 2020.when Moscow did not manage to intervene effectively in the war between Erewan and Baku, despite the long -term alliance with Armenia. Further Azerbaijan's offensive in the following years has only strengthened the retreat of Yerevan from Russia, and in recent years closer to Europe and the United States.

In response, Russia intensified media attacks on the Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Paszyniana and his government, which prompted the Armenian elites to accuse Russia of waging “hybrid war”.

In June this year there was a conflict between Russia and the Armenia government in connection with the arrest of the Russian-parliamentary billionaire Samvel Karaptyan and the high-ranking clergy on the charge of inciting the coup. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov publicly described the arrest of clergy as “unjustified attacks without serious grounds”.

The Minister of Foreign Affairs of Armenia answered, encouraging Lavrov to “refrain from interfering in the internal affairs of Armenia and her internal policy.” Official representatives are currently in favor of blocking Russian television programs in Armenia.

However, to understand the current dynamics, it should be remembered that while Armenia acts from the position of weakness, Azerbaijan faces Russia from the position of strength.

Games with Russia

From 2020, many events indicating in Azerbaijan The increase in the importance of this country as regional power. The most important of them was the strength of the mountain karabakh in September 2023, which allowed Alijew to announce a total victory over the Armenia in the conflict that has been ongoing for decades. Russian soldiers of peace forces in Górski Karabakh They did not take any action to stop the offensivewhich laid an end to the long -term separatist project of Armenia.

However, it was not only the victory of Baku over Armenia that ensured Alijew more confidence. Over the past few years, Baku has liquidated the few independent media in the country, increased its role on global energy markets and trade routes, and was hosting the COP 29 conference in 2024, despite accusations of violating human rights and ethnic purges. In the years preceding the air disaster, the relations between Baku and Moscow were good, and the Kremlin's passivity in terms of mountain karabakh seemed to recognize the growing power of Azerbaijan.

Vladimir Smirnov / AFP

President of Azerbaijan Ilham Alijew and Prime Minister Armenia Nikol Paszynian, St. Petersburg, December 26, 2023.

On the other hand, the Paszyniana government is struggling with growing internal instability. The main promise made to voters in 2023 that thanks to the pragmatic negotiations and abandoning the nationalist claims of Armenia will achieve security and prosperity, it has not yet brought results. A formal peace treaty with Azerbaijan has not yet been signed, because Baku strives to achieve maximalistic goals, demanding from Armenia to accept the transit corridor by its territory and changes in the constitution.

Russia also has a much greater influence on Armenia than Azerbaijan. Due to the closed borders with Azerbaijan and Turkey, Armenia remains dependent on the Kremlin in the field of trade and energy. Moscow provides it with approx. 85 percent gas, and the country's energy infrastructure is largely controlled by Gazprom, which gives the Russians more tender cards that they can use against Eritania, if they consider it appropriate.

Movement on the side of Moscow

However, Azerbaijan is more independent In terms of economic and energy, and its extremely important oil and gas sector benefits from Russia's isolation after 2022.

Ironically, in a situation where the rule of Baku and Terivania fall into conflict with Moscow, it seems unlikely that the latter can force reconciliation between them. Within seven months of the disaster of Azeri Airlines, significant contacts with Ukrainian officials occurred, perhaps in order to demonstrate Russia's independence of Azerbaijan. However, this did not improve the relations with Armenia.