“Exactly the measures we need,” says a top economist about the fiscal package. But with a condition / other expert identifies what is “absolutely necessary” to do the state

If only these measures that Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan announced on Wednesday, says Laurian Lungu, the co-founder of one of the most respected economic tanks in Romania, would be exactly the measures we need. “Less increase in dividend tax,” he says. Another economist, Cătălin Ghinararu, says in the dialogue with Hotnews that “there will be a movement in the direction of the economic recession. He warns, however, that” it is absolutely necessary to work on the structure of the economy.

In the opinion of Laurian Lungu, if the increasing tax on dividends is applied, “it will deepen the deceleration of the economy, it will delay its recovery and on the net and will not bring to the budget the predicted amounts, on the contrary,” explains Lungu.

Otherwise, he adds, the measures are the ones we suggest here a month ago and something. “We suggest that the VAT actually increase temporarily, for a maximum of 3 years, with 3 percentage points from 14.5% as it is now.” What, in essence, says Lungu, is obtained with 2 percentage points on the statutory quota and the rest of the increase of reduced quotas.

“If the VAT increase, the gambling tax, the CASS application to the pensions of over 3,000 RON applies very soon, from August 1, there are sufficient measures, in conjunction with a reduction of budgetary, feasible expenses, of at least 0.5% of GDP, to reduce the budget deficit sufficient to reduce the risk of the country,” explaining the risk.

In his opinion, VAT growth is the least harmful to the economy in tax increases. “Obviously, it must be applied alongside quick and targeted measures to reduce VAT evasion. VAT increase helps to adjust the budget and in 2026, especially by reducing some categories of expenses in real terms!”, He believes.

What is very important is that capital taxes-so on profit or dividends-as well as those on the workforce remain unchanged, points out the economist, co-founder of the council Policy Advisors Group.

The economy slows down a few good quarters, in the first quarter of this year the value added of all the sectors in the economy was zero and its slope is descending. “In these conditions a potential increase of these types of taxes-in particular the dividend tax, which appeared as a potential measure of 2026-has a very high cost-benefit ratio, deepening a possible recession. It is an important moment for the economy,” he concludes.

“The consumption will decrease,” warns Cătălin Ghinararu

Also, another economist with whom Hotnews discussed says that measures are completely anticyclic.

“There will be a movement in the direction of the economic recession, but I expect the inflationary, a deflationary one, because we will witness the freezing of wages, which makes a salary inflation impossible. It will be a temporary increase in inflation on certain channels (that of the IPC), but doubled by a consumption or a consumption. Aggregate, it will decrease! ”Says Cătălin Ghinararu, one of the few experts on the labor market with which the European Commission discusses in Romania.

“It is an obvious anti-cyclical measure, as well as those taken in 2010, when prices have grown suddenly, after which they have reached,” he says.

“It is absolutely necessary to work on the structure of the economy. And measures are required to create other state sources than the simple application of taxes and taxes and especially this extraordinary dependence on labor taxation!”, Concludes Ghinararu.

Bolojan's measures

The reduction of the excessive budget deficit will be done through three packages of measures that will be adopted successively in the coming months, Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan announced on Wednesday in a press conference.

Bolojan said that it proposes three packages of measures, which are a mix of income increases, a mix of spending discounts and a mix of staggers and investment prioritizations.

The first such package will be adopted by assuming the responsibility of the Government in the Parliament, the next week.

Among the measures that will be part of this project are VAT reassemble on two thresholds, general share to 21% and a reduced share of 11% (drugs, food, horeca), increase in dividends from 10% to 16%, increased alcohol, tobacco, fuel by 10%, freezing the increase of pensions and salaries in 2026 Pay the contribution to health, tax on banks' profits and gamble gains.

All the measures announced will enter into force from August 1, 2025, except for the increase of dividends taxes that will be applied from January 1, 2026.

“We will relocate the VAT to two odds. Today we have three odds, of 5, 11 and 19%. The two quotas at which we propose the reassemble are 11%and 21%quota. At the reduced quota will remain, as until now, medicines, foods, public water and sewerage services, water for irrigation, It remains at this level. announced the new fical measures.

What did the head of the Government announce:

• “In fuels, in diesel, a scheme of partial restitution of this growth will operate to companies that provide transportation to Romania, so that this shock is partially mitigated. The excise duty for cigarettes will also increase.
• We will propose and adopt a measure that will enter into force from January 1 to increase the dividend tax from 10% to 16%.
• We will also tax the profits of banks. The banks in Romania have one of the best yields of capital in this part of Europe and I think they can contribute with higher amounts to the state budget revenues.
• Also, we will overcome all the gambling winnings so that we collect at least 30% more of this category of revenues.“

(Accountant that calculates taxes, VAT, loans, debts, savings or salaries – illustrative photography / source: © Tero Vesalainen | Dreamstime.com)