After Trump's rule

After the rule of Donald Trump, the traditional US foreign policy will be unbeatable, the next president will have to build it from scratch, “Rebecca Lissner from the American Council of Foreign Relations (CFR) and Mira Rapp -Hooper from the Brookings Institute assess it from scratch – in Foreign Affairs.

The second term of Trump receives the illusion that his foreign policy and obsession with the trade war during the first presidency were only aberration, which will be corrected thanks to the durability of American institutions and alliances. The first months of the new administration's rule show that there is a seismic change, which is the driving force of Reluctance to traditional US partners and interest in cooperation with authoritarian regimes – write Lissner and Rapp -Hooper, author of the book “An Open World” (Open World).

When Trump ends his office in 2029, “there will be no more return” to the foreign policy that America had after the Cold War. The next president will have to take a position with a ready and clear vision of building this policy from the beginning, from the “zero point” – assess the experts.

This will be necessary because in four years “old order will be destroyed and irresistible.”

“No responsible analyst can predict what will happen in the year of Trump's presidency, and what in four years,” the authors reserve.

At the same time, they emphasize that the measure of the change that the current administration intends to introduce is the statement of the secretary of the state of Marc Rubio. He declared during hearing in the Senate: “The post -war world order is not only outdated (…), he is now a weapon used against us.”

Trump's foreign policy will accelerate the birth of a “multiply world”; His behavior towards allies and partners will prompt them to build a greater autonomy, not only on defense issues. Trade pressure exerted on China can become more and more favorable to them, as Beijing builds new alliances. The place of diplomacy, which Trump is not interested in, may take the competition of powers – Lissner and Rapp -Hooper forecast.

They also emphasize that “fears are growing, that the United States will retreat to the Western hemisphere and leave Russia Europe, and Asia – China.”

There is no guarantee that after Trump's presidency, “demand for the strength of America” ​​will be reborn, regardless of whether his successor will be a democrat, a traditional Republican or Trumpist. The new administration will have to assume that foreign policy will need to be created in the “more multi -speed” world and among numerous new restrictions – the authors state.

Two British Think Tanka, Royal United Services Institute (Rusia) and Chatham House, assessed in April that “Trumpism would survive his (Trump – PAP) presidency”, and a conservative American political scientist from the Brookings Institution Robert Kagan wrote that “the damage that Trump did (PAP) are Probably impossible “, and the trend appointed by the president in foreign policy will persist in the predictable future. (PAP)

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