The increase in salaries releases. PKO BP presented its forecasts for the next year

The average increase in salaries in 2025 in Poland will break the level of 8 %, and in 2026 will be in the range of 6-7 percent. – PKO BP economists forecast. An increase in employment may appear at the earliest at the end of 2025, although its scale will be limited by decreasing work supply.

“The scale of wage growth in the national economy in the first quarter of 2025 was by nearly 2 percentage points higher than our expectations, and spring brought the inheritance of the inheritance trend of payroll in the sector of enterprises. As a result, we assume that the average increase in remuneration in 2025 will break the level of 8 %, in 2026 will be in the range of 6-7 percent” – written in the report.

“Inhibition of wage dynamics next year will be supported by the lowest increase in the minimum wage proposed by the government at 3 % at the same pace, the remuneration in the budget sphere is to increase. In addition to regulatory factors, pay pressure on the side of employees will suppress limited demand for work” – added.

According to economists, an increase in employment may appear at the earliest at the end of 2025, although its scale will be limited by decreasing work supply.

“Data on flows on the labor market suggest that the existing buffers limiting the increase in the number of unemployed (including reduction of full -time jobs with retreating from the labor market) began to run out, which prompted us to a slight revision up the unemployment rate forecast” – wrote in the report.

“It is possible that the greater caution of companies in relation to personnel policy results from increased global uncertainty. The domestic situation should, however, support the reconstruction of demand for work. We assume that the increase in employment can be seen at the earliest at the end of 2025 and in the further horizon of the forecast, although its scale will be limited by decreasing work supply” – added.

PKO BP forecasts that the registered unemployment rate at the end of 2025 will be 4.9 percent, and at the end of 2026 it will be at 4.8 percent.

Among the main risk factors for forecasts, economists point to an unknown, ultimate scale of the minimum wage in 2026, the scale of migration (including the direction of flows in the case of peace in Ukraine), as well as the sensitivity of the professional activity rate to improve the economic situation. (PAP Biznes)

Pat/ Ana/