Dollar with the lowest exchange rate since 2020. Long -time hole on the USD/PLN currency pair threatened

On Thursday, the dollar exchange rate relative to the zloty was set by new many years of minima, noted since December 2020. The American currency is also weaker in hand with the most important currencies in the world, including primarily from the euro.

The EUR/PLN exchange rate looks stable after strengthening the domestic currency that occurred after the de -escalation of the conflict in the Middle East and the suspension of weapons. After a decline from over PLN 4.27, and at times nearly PLN 4.28 for one euro, its exchange rate from Tuesday is consolidated around the level of PLN 4.25. On Thursday, around 10.09, the EUR/PLN quotations indicated PLN 4.2462, i.e. on Wednesday's closure.

“It is also worth mentioning that the EUR/PLN exchange rate is testing several important technical supports around 4.23-4.25. Without stronger impulses, establishing subsequent local minima may encounter problems, although it remains the base scenario. By the end of June, the EUR/PLN exchange rate can reach 4.22, thus opening the space to a further decline below 4.2” – wrote in a commentary for PAP Bizdzław Budzicki, strateg Market PKO BP.

“Stabilization of oil prices at lower levels or a further degree in decline can promote bond markets and shares, as well as gold. Support levels for EUR/PLN are around 4,225-4.23”-noted economists of Bank Millennium in their commentary.

The situation on the dollar looks more interesting. The EUR/USD exchange rate exceeded on Thursday morning for the first time since September 2021 level 1.17. At 10.00 for one euro you had to pay $ 1.1708. Even older extrema were steamed with gold. The USD/PLN exchange rate dropped on Thursday morning after 10.15 to the level of 3.6180 PLN and was the lowest since December 2020. The minima at the time of PLN 3.6110 are the last “technical” stop point before the long -term bottom of January 2018 (PLN 3.30).

The dollar exchange rate lost about 0.6 percent on Thursday. relative to Wednesday's closure, which in turn fell by 0.42 percent. lower from Tuesday. The USD/PLN pair has 6 inheritance sessions in a row so far and seem to be another.

“The increase in EUR/USD may partly result from the critical comments of D. Trump towards the President of the Fed, press speculation that the US President may indicate the successor of Jerome Powell around September -October, and partly also from the upcoming period of frostbite of American elevated duties, which falls on July 9” – wrote in the Millennium bank.

“The American dollar has not been so weak for a long time. One of the main reasons for this inheritance is the uncertainty and unpredictability surrounding the US trade policy (…). This uncertainty prompted many foreign investors to reduce their involvement in American assets, which contributed to almost 10 percent of the decrease in the American dollar index in relation to the main currencies this year,” Mateusz Czyżkowski wrote in a commentary. DM XTB.

Noteworthy is also the two -day interrogation of the Fed President Jerome Powell at the American Congress. “The second day of interrogations (…) cemented the position of the Fed president in terms of feet – he said that” it is extremely difficult to predict what inflation will have duties on inflation. “We receive these words a little differently than the market, seeing in them above all the warning for President Trump in case he wanted to take radical actions in commercial policy in July. We still assume that the reduction of the foot at the end of the month is completely real, Extreme scenarios of the trade war does not materialize, “Kamil Cisowski from Di Xelion noted in the morning commentary, paying attention to the subject of the July foot reduction on the market and thus pressure on the dollar.

The dollar weakness also deepened against the Swiss franc. The USD/CHF pair went down to level 0.8 and was the lowest since July 2011. Frank in hand with the golden cost PLN 4,5255 in the morning, which is just over 2 grosze less than the day before at this time. PLN 4.9799 was paid for the British pound, just like the day before.

Mku

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