Analysts of the Goldman Sachs investment bank indicated that On Sunday (June 22), the price of Brent oil increased to just below $ 80. for a barrel. In their opinion, this is due to the fact that the market values a slightly higher probability of disturbances in supplyalthough bank analysts do not expect “there are significant disturbances in the supply of oil and natural gas“.
The bank is considering two scenarios of oil supply disturbances. The first – a decrease in deliveries only from Iran and the second – wider disturbance of regional oil or transport production.
According to analysts, if the supply of Iranian oil would fall by 1.75 million barrels a day (Mb/D), then – according to their estimates – the price of Brent oil could increase to about 90 dollars. On the other hand, If the oil flow through the Strait of the Ormuz (located between Iran and the United Arab Emirates) would fall by 50 percent. for a month to stay 10 percent Lower for the next 11 months is – according to Goldman Sachs estimates – the price of oil would temporarily jump to around $ 110.
“We expect that European natural gas markets (TTF) and LNG will also value a slightly higher probability of a serious disturbance of supplies” – according to them, natural gas can reach a price of 74 euros per MWh, which – as they reminded – in 2022 caused a limitation of gas demand.
Read also: Iran increases oil exports in the face of conflict. The key role of the Strait of the Ormuz
According to experts, hypothetical, long -lasting and serious disruption of transit by the Strait of Ormuz could cause oil prices to $ 110. for a barrel, and European gas up to 100 euros per MWh. This respect assumes almost 20 % disturbing global energy supply.
“While events in the Middle East remain dynamic, we believe that economic stimuli, including for the USA and China, to try to prevent a lasting and very large disturbance in the Strait of ORMUZ, would be very strong” – emphasized Goldman Sachs analysts.
