Lukashenko on the occasion of the visit of the envoy Donald Trump for relations with Russia and Ukraine Keith Kellog actually released only eight political prisoners. The six other people who were pardoned the Belarusian dictator and several others who were released from detention, because they were citizens of other countries, including three Polish citizens.
Importantly, all released Belarusian oppositionists were simultaneously expelled from Belarus, which means that the regime not so much released them as it threw them out of the country, which is otherwise incompatible with international law.
It is worth noting that there are currently almost 1 thousand in Belarus. 200 political prisoners. The fact that the Trump administration has been released eight is therefore no success.
To realize the scale of failure, it is worth noting that in the last two weeks another 13 people convicted of opposition activities have been sent to the prisoners in Belarus. In other words, Łukaszenko released more or less so many people from prison, which he put his regime into prison in about a week.
What's more, according to Onet's information in the sources among the leaders of the Belarusian opposition, accompanying Kellogg during a meeting with Lukashenko Christopher Smith (holding the position of deputy minister in the Department of State) during conversations with opposition leaders, he talked about the plan to lead to free from 100 to 200 prisoners.
Continuation of the material under the video
The fact that Siarhiej Cichawuski was among the dismissed is significant because until his arrest he was a leader in the polls before the elections falsified by the regime in 2020, the thing is that in Belarusian prisons there are many no less known people, including the presidential candidate and businessman, one of the opposition leaders, one of the opposition leaders, Maria Koścarka and the opposition leaders Human rights defender and Nobel Peace Prize winner Aleś Bialacki. The release of Cichanouuski, taking into account the fact that his place in the election was taken by his wife, is – as it seems – calculated to cause a crisis in opposition structures, in which the status of Svetlana Cichamanuska is already being undermined.
The fact of such a modest success in the release of political prisoners is a derivative of the fact that their situation was, according to Onet's information, barely second or even a tertiary topic of conversations. Kellog was supposed to talk to Lukashenko during six -hour talks with the expected course of the 2025 exercise, sanctions that the United States imposed on Belarus and probably also about Łukaszenka's will to become a “intermediary” in the conversations of the USA with Russia.
PAP/EPA/BELARUS PRESIDENT PRESS SERVICE/HANDOUT
Meeting of General Kellog with Lukashenko in Minsk
Serious fears in NATO
Planned maneuvers planned for September 2025 arouse serious concerns in NATO. Although Minsk declares that the exercises are to be limited on a scale, interviews of alliance countries are afraid that they may be a prelude not so much to attack, but to provocation in relation to the Baltic States. The territory of Belarus was, let us remind you, used by Russia to attack Ukraine in 2022.
The problem with conversations with Minsk on maneuvers. The collapse boils down to the fact that not Minsk, and Moscow makes decisions about the scale of maneuvers and whether he will provoke Lithuania or Latvia (with Estonia Belarus does not border). Unfortunately, the probability that Lukashenko could oppose any plans for Moscow is slim.
Even worse, it is even doubtful that he would inform about such plans. Not because he would not “trade” them (because it is a specialty of Lukashenko), but because the Russians could – similarly to the case of an attack on Ukraine – not even inform about such plans.
Optimism is also not aroused by the fact that Kellog was supposed to talk to Lukashenko about sanctions. Any softening of the sanction regime towards Minsk means opening a wicket to avoid sanctions by Russia.
The reports are also disturbing that Minsk is constantly trying to offer the role of an intermediary in conversations, either the United States or west with Russia more broadly. Belarus, considering the fact that she made its territory available for aggression on Ukraine, is not suitable for the role of an intermediary.
All of the above -mentioned pessimistic comments are a derivative of the fact that the Lukashenko regime, unlike before 2020, lost the remains of independence in relation to Moscow. The above does not mean, of course, that Belarus will never become real independent again. Unlike the West, Russia is not able to offer Belarus any attractive civilization or development model.
The problem is that this means for us, and above all for Belarusian independence and sovereignty, admittedly a chance, but only in an indefinite future. Here and now Minsk is de facto in the situation of a vassal state towards Russia.
Alexander Kazakov/AFP/East News/East News
Aleksander Łukaszenko and Vladimir Putin in front of the Wałamski monastery, July 2024
In Poland, we have not had an important discussion about Belarus
On the other hand, it can be argued that even if the real range of Belarusian sovereignty is very narrow today, it is still better to widen it, and not even narrow. Only that such a way of thinking must be confronted with hard realities, which today are unfortunately much worse than just a few years ago.
A discussion that we have never done in Poland is an attempt to answer the question about the reasons, of which the vast majority of creators and people influencing Polish Eastern policy for years completely irresponsible, and at the same time with the amazing consequence, she ignored the risk, the essence of which was that Belarus may one day fall into such a dependence on Russia that it will happen – so it is – as historical cycle).
In Onet, we wrote about the above risk many times, e.g. on the occasion of a failed revolution of 2020, before which we defeat and negative effects we warned before it broke out.
Before the Russian assault to Ukraine, we have repeatedly argued that Belarus should be thought primarily in the context of military security.
These warnings were completely ignored by Polish diplomacy, financed by the Polish State Belarusian media and analytical centers. This could have been a derivative of extreme idealism and naivety, extreme stupidity or work for Russian services.
I’m Ashley Davis as an editor, I’m committed to upholding the highest standards of integrity and accuracy in every piece we publish. My work is driven by curiosity, a passion for truth, and a belief that journalism plays a crucial role in shaping public discourse. I strive to tell stories that not only inform but also inspire action and conversation.
