“There is a decisive weapon in the conflict between Israel and Iran.” The disclosures of a former Romanian head of military intelligence

The war between Israel and Iran becomes intuition, and his denouement seems uncertain. Former head of the Directorate of Military Intelligence and representative of Romania in Norway, General (r) Adriean Pârlog explains, in an analysis for “Adevărul”, how things are in the field, in this war, but also what we could expect.

The war between Israel and Iran ignite. Profimedia photo

A new day, a new surprise in the war between Israel and Iran: after the successes obtained by the Israelis in the first days, the forces of Tehran seem to have balanced the battles, and even more. According to The Wall Street Journal, Israel is experiencing a serious strategic vulnerability: Stocks of ARROW missile defense interceptions are about to be exhausted. The information, confirmed by a high-ranking American official, comes at a time that can not be worse for Israel, when Iran announces the launch of Fattah-1 hypersonic missiles against his enemy. According to the quoted source, the hypersonic missiles fly with speeds over Mach 5 (five times the speed of sound) and can perform unpredictable maneuvers during the trajectory, which makes them almost impossible to intercepted.

“Adevărul” appealed to the expertise of General (R) Adriean Pârlog, former head of the Department of Analysis of the General Directorate of Information of the Army in Romania and attached to Defense, Military, Aero and Naval in the Kingdom of Norway, in an attempt to decipher the turn that seems to take the war from the Middle East.

Where the problem comes from

The general confirms that Israel would have reached the situation where he would no longer have enough intercepting missiles in front of Iranian attacks.

“They have very few compared to the duration, in length, of the operations they considered, in times of peace, that they can cover it in an effective way. It may not have done the best estimate. It is a surprise, first, the speed with which the Israeli reached certain performances in three days. The Iranians to receive blows without responding a lot ”, says General Pârlog.

Israeli interception rockets are completely different from their attack weapons. In fact, the anti -pea defense systems of Israel are famous and are among the most effective. However, says the general, it seems that Iranian weapons are more efficient than expected.

“The interception missiles are totally different in terms of the conception of offensive missiles. Interception missiles, in principle, are more expensive than destructive, offensive rockets. Defense systems involve real -time information, for several tens of seconds, depending on the geographical coordinates, the coordinates on the trajectory of the offensive vent. Close to one to destroy the respective rocket. The immediate future will confirm or denied the assumption”, Says the expert.

What will the Americans decide

An intervention of the United States of America seems unlikely, but it cannot be totally excluded. In fact, there is information that Donald Trump would have given his agreement to join US at the Air Campaign against Israel, according to the CBS, which cites a high source of information services and a Pentagon manager. However, the word is uncertain, while global diplomacy tries to prevent a situation that would really have explosive potential.

It will be a political decision of Washington, considers the general, and the objective can only be stopped by the Iranian nuclear project. Israel puts pressure on the US and want Americans to intervene and use the GBU-57 anti-buse. So far, Americans have used a similar bomb, GBU-43/B, known as the Massive Ordnance Air Blast). Also known as the mother of all bombs or a massive breath bomb, it was used by Americans in Afghanistan, to destroy the Hidden ISIS bases in the mountains.

“It is an extremely complicated political problem. Surgeing means certainty about stopping the Iranian nuclear project. Or this would involve hitting the famous Iranian installation of the Fortow uranium. American anti-tunnel bombs could be effective. His mandate is associated with peace.says the general.

Bombs that could be used in Iran

There is a problem even in the case of American bombs. It is not very clear whether the American conventional bombs, even the anti-tunnel bombs, could destroy the Iranian base at the Fortow. Unlike the bases of terrorists hidden in Afghanistan, the Fortow Uranium enrichment plant was built in the 2000s by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard at a depth of over 500 meters, deep in the stone mountains. There would be another American bomb, including nuclear load, but has not yet been tested.

“The big problem is related to the depth at which it has to pierce such an ultra sophisticated ammunition and the great destructive kinetic capacity. And the third problem is that the last bombs have been tested only under laboratory conditions, but not in fighting”, Points out the expert.

And that's not all. Americans would still have a bomb, probably the most effective, but with a nuclear load. But Donald Trump would not allow it to use it.

“The third form is nuclear load. Or I would say that this is hard to assume that a politician who struggles for peace, such as Donald Trump, will assume, which requires respect for freedoms and the right to life. Especially since he pressed to resign a nuclear agreement with Iran, and then he was the one who … no, I do not think he would use a nuclear weapon against Iran, would be out of logic. But, in the end, you know that the invasion of Ukraine from Russia seemed very unlikely, which did not stop at a little to attack”Says the general.

Nuclear nightmare

Instead, another option could be chosen for hitting the plant where Iranians want to make their nuclear bombs.

“They also have the opportunity to use nuclear ammunition, but also to use classic explosive. In fact, they are a waterfall who come and hit where he destroyed the front.”He says.

Until extreme solutions are reached, it will most likely try to solve this dispute on the way of negotiations. General Adriean Pârlog believes that a Trump dialog – Putin could be decisive. This is because the United States is the main ally of Israel, and Iran has the support of Russia. Negotiations and discussions between the two leaders could prevent any attempt to use nuclear weapons in the Middle East and beyond.

“The most inclined I would finally believe a Donald Trump – Vladimir Putin dialogue. Perhaps Trump will contribute to finding a solution to remove the world from a hellish precedent and difficult to justify and accept”, General Adriean Pârlog shows.

In addition, the use of a nuclear weapon against Iran could cause Russia to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine, and the risk of a huge world, even nuclear war would become more tangible.

“I think there will be enough wisdom to avoid such a catastrophic scenario. Of course, nothing is excluded, but I personally think it will not be here,” concludes General Adriean Pârlog.

Who is the general hawk

Prof. univ. dr. Adriean Pârlog is general Maior (R). He was deputy of the Directorate of Military Intelligence in Romania and attached to the defense, Military, Aero and Naval in the Kingdom of Norway. Currently, Adriean Pârlog is president of SC Integrated Corporate Security Services SRL (ICSS) and offers courses for vocational training in fields for business and corporate security.

General Adriean Pârlog has over 25 years of experience in the Intelligence field and has held the position of head of the Military Intelligence Analysis Service. He is currently an associate professor at Lucian Blaga University and at Babeş-Bolyai University in Cluj, member of admission commissions at the postgraduate course of military information, member of commissions at the National Defense College, scientific leader, etc. He graduated from the Faculty of Economic and Statistical Cybernetics – Economic Cyber ​​specialty, after which he attended a postgraduate course of specialization in modeling and simulating economic -social phenomena within ASE. He holds the title of doctor obtained from the Academy of High Military Studies, where he also attended a postgraduate course in the field of military information. He attended NATO courses, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California; Center for Defense Studies and King 'S College London, UK; Harvard University/John F.Kennedy School of Government, Boston. Its expert area includes Intelligence & Business Intelligence, information theory, modeling and simulation of economic and social processes.

He is the author of over 10 scientific communications published in volumes of national scientific events; 49 articles published in specialized magazines; 12 research and development projects; 24 sets of specialized lessons; 6 books; 25 complex specialized applications or exercises. Among the scientific concerns you can list the following book titles: “Information production”, “Methods and techniques of information analysis”, “The information activity”.