Russian treasure greater than ever. It can be a rescue wheel for Putin. Economist: this should not be underestimated
The fourth year of the war unleashed against Ukraine, which began on February 24, 2022, did not start well for the Russian economy. In the first quarter, its increase was only 1.4 percent. Compared to the same period of 2023 and for the first time since 2022, it fell compared to the previous quarter.
Industrial production increased by only 1 percent, and in addition to the armaments sector there was even a decrease. And although on June 13 the central bank began to reduce the excessive interest rate of 21 percent, it still maintains its assessment that even a dozen of the 78 largest enterprises in the country outside the financial sector can go bankrupt this year.
Macroeconomic perspectives are also not so pink. According to the Reuters Agency survey, the economy, which for two years grew at a amazing rate of 4.1 percent, in 2025 will increase by only 1.5 percent. “It can even end in a recession,” Oleg Wjugin, a former vice president of the Russian Central Bank, explained recently in an interview with “Die Welt”.
In the revised budget forecast, the deficit to 1.7 percent is expected. GDP. While expenses – especially for war – are still growing, a decrease in important revenues from oil and gas exports is forecast by 24 %. up to 8.3 trillion rubles (PLN 393 billion) in connection with oil prices.
Does everything look so bad then? Not necessarily. International gold reserves and foreign currencies of Russia have recently increased significantly. What's more, they even broke several records.
According to the Russian Central Bank, at the beginning of June they amounted to $ 680.4 billion. (2 trillion PLN 522 billion). At the beginning of the year it was still 609 billion (2 trillion 257 billion). At the time of the annexation of Crimea in 2014, they amounted to less than PLN 500 billion (PLN 1 trillion 853 billion), and in subsequent years below PLN 400 billion. (1 trillion PLN 483 billion).
Of course, unlike earlier years, from the beginning of the war about $ 300 billion. (1 trillion PLN 112 billion) from total reserves was frozen in the EUwhich means that Russia can only have 380 billion (1 trillion PLN 409 billion) from the current 680 billion. (2 trillion PLN 521 billion) However, an increase of PLN 71 billion (PLN 263 billion) has been worthy of attention since the beginning of the year.
– This is partly due to the strengthening of the euro relative to the dollar, because some of the total reserves are still kept in euros – explains Wasily Astrow, an expert on Russia from the Vienna Institute of International Economic Studies (WiW). Lion's share of growth by $ 71 billion (PLN 263 billion), namely PLN 51 billion (PLN 189 billion), however, results from the increase in the price of gold, which from the beginning of the year went up by over a quarter (and in an annual basis by over 40 percent). In this way, the value of Russian gold reserves is $ 248.2 billion. (PLN 920 billion) – as much as never before.
Trump's consistency
– It is not necessary to underestimate the increase in the value of Russian gold reserves – indicates Władisław Inoziemcew Russian economist and co -founder of the Analysis and Strategy Center in Europe (case) in an interview with “Die Welt”. – The increase in value from mid -2024 more than compensates for the decrease in revenues from oil and gas exports caused by a decrease in oil prices. Therefore, the deterioration of Russia's commercial situation is not as dramatic as he often believes – he notes.
Not only the price of gold increases the value of reserves. This is also influenced by the fact that, as the years passed and the growing distance from the west, Russia sold American tax bonds, preferring the purchase of gold. While five years ago, the share of gold in Russia's international reserves was 22.9 percent. – What was already a very high result and interpreted as preparations for the economic war – currently it is as much as 36.5 percent.
– Compared to other countries, Russia currently has a fairly high percentage of gold in its reserves – indicates Wjugin. – but also other countries, for example China, increased the share of gold in their foreign currency reserves. It is simply a consequence of Trump's policy – he adds.
What can Russia gain?
But what do Russia really give a record high currency reserves due to the increase in gold price? – Basically, she could compensate for the losses in the event of a breakdown in foreign trade – says Wjugin. However, in fact, the creation of reserves only withdraws funds from the economy. – The reserves are like a dead load. In the short and medium -term perspective, they are not significant for the economy – he notes.
Astrow agrees that their role is currently small, if it exists at all. – Rubel currently has an upward trend. To devaluate it, you don't need reserves – on the contrary: it should be bought – he adds.
Vladimir Putin, Moscow, May 28, 2025
As for the potential financing of the budget deficit from the Central Bank reserves, the Astrow “excludes it at the moment.” – This is not currently necessary, nor would it be in line with the still liberal principles of macroeconomic management in Russia – he says.
Russia has other possibilities of financing a budget deficit – a ruble devaluation, which of course is difficult to realize or increase low public debt. Above all, however, the state has the so -called The Fund of National Welfare (NWF), which before the war, managed to accumulate from surplus of oil exports.
Its liquid and thus easily available part has been used for the budget and decrease rapidly from the beginning of the war. According to recent calculations, Bloomberg has fallen by 68 percent. up to only 2.8 trillion of rubles (PLN 132 billion). And it still decreases.
A ban on gold trading from Russia
– The situation definitely worse – explains Inoziemcew. – Many experts believe that the liquid part will be exhausted in 2025 or 2026. So if the budget holes really become disturbing, Russia will probably also reach for gold reserves – says the economist.
The problem is that in mid -2022, the EU and the US banned the import and trade in gold from Russia. Russia not only has huge amounts of gold in its state reserves, but also brings it out a lot.
Last year, it was the second largest producer in the world, giving way only to China and ahead of Australia. Before the war in Russia, gold was the third largest export commodity after energy raw materials.
To some extent, Russia still earns on its ore despite the sanctions. – Of course, Russia sells its gold because many countries are not aware of sanctions – says Inoziemcew. The main recipients are the United Arab Emirates (ZAA) and Türkiye. And also Armenia.
As revealed at the end of 2024, the Russian investigative portal “The Insider” and its Armenian equivalent “Hetq” based on customs data, Armenia in the years 2022–2024 imported from Russia as much as 89 tons of gold worth $ 5.2 billion. (PLN 19 billion) to quickly sell them to the United Arab Emirates, but also to Hong Kong and continental China.
“In the first years of the war, Armenia became an important smuggling corridor,” says Inoziemcew. – If Russia's budget problems became so serious that it would be necessary to sell significant amounts of gold, these corridors would not be enough. I think that in the event of what Russia will try to find a solution to this problem – he adds.
