In the context of uncertainty, especially fiscal, the economy is anticipated to grow modestly, not excluding a recession scenario for this year, says Adrian Codîrlașu, CFA Romania president, presenting the main estimates for the period to come.
The risk that Romania will enter the recession is not excluded this year. Photo shutterstock
“As the risk of a result of the presidential elections that would have led Romania to a trajectory to Euroscepticism disappeared, the trusted indicator increased strongly in May. But, The risk of the Romanian economy remains high and is caused in particular by the unsustainable budget deficit. In the context of uncertainty, especially fiscal, the economy is anticipated to grow modestly, not being excluded a recession scenario for this year ”, said Adrian Codîrlașu, president of CFA Romania – Association of Investment Professionals in Romania holders of the title Chartered Financial Analyst.
According to him, the macroeconomic trust indicator of the CFA Romania Association increased strongly in May, by 11.5 points to 44.9 points. This situation was due in particular to the strong increase in the anticipation component of the indicator, by 15.2 points, while the current component increased by 4.3 points.
The anticipated inflation rate for the 12 -month horizon (June 2026) increased compared to the value recorded in March and reached the level of 4.87%.
Regarding the EUR/RON exchange rate, about 70% of the participants anticipate a lion's impairment in the next 12 months. Thus the average value of the anticipations for the 6 -month horizon is 5,1046 lei for one euro, while for the 12 -month horizon, the average value of the EUR/RON in advance is 5,1723 lei for one euro.
Regarding the evolution of prices of residential properties in cities, 60% of participants, anticipate a stagnation in the next 12 months, while 25% anticipate a decrease. Also 60% of participants believe that current prices are over-evaluated, and 35% are correctly evaluated.
The deficit of the state budget forecast for the year 2025 decreased slightly compared to the previous exercise, at the average value of the anticipations of 7.7% of GDP.
The anticipations of economic growth for the year 2025 are, increasing compared to the previous exercise, at the average value of 1.0%, there are also opinions among the participants regarding a possible entry into the Romanian economy.
The public debt calculated as a percentage in GDP is anticipated to increase to 59% in the next 12 months.
An additional question introduced in the survey refers to the anticipations regarding the relegation of Romania in the rating category not recommended (“junk”). Thus, according to the results, 74% of the participants anticipate the maintenance, in the next 12 months, Romania in the rating category recommended (increasing from the previous exercise), while 26% anticipate a relegation in the category not recommended (“junk”). For comparison, from a statistical point of view, when the prospect of an issuer is revised from “neutral” to “negative”, in one of three cases it is relegated in the next 12 months. Also, the weaker the rating (eg BBB-, BB+), the higher the risk of relegation after a negative perspective.
