The Israeli-Iranian conflict raises Moscow's anxiety. The diary indicates a change of feelings
Why is it important?
Iran is one of Russia's closest allies in the Middle East, and its stability is crucial for the interests of Moscow in the region. After losing their influence in Syria, where Bashar al-Assad was overthrown, Russia cannot afford another weakening of its position. The Israeli-Iranian conflict can, however, lead to Tehran's destabilization, which would be a blow to the Russian geopolitical strategy.
How did Russia assess the conflict initially?
When Israel began attacks on Iran, Russia saw it a chance to reduce Western support for Ukraine. It was also calculated on the increase in oil prices, which could improve the situation of the Russian budget. “Thanks to high oil prices, Russia can get billions of dollars additional influence,” noted Sergei Markow, a political scientist associated with the Kremlin.
What did Konstantin Zatulin say?
“The situation is developing in a dangerous direction for Russia,” wrote Konstantin Zatulin from the Moscow Institute of CIS. In his opinion, Israeli attacks can lead to destabilization of Iran, which would be a serious problem for Moscow.
Is the regime in Tehran to be threatened?
Experts cited by the “Washington Post” indicate that the regime in Iran is becoming more and more fragile. One of the Russian scientists, asking for anonymity, noticed that an external threat can unite society, but the limits of this stability are difficult to assess. However, if the power changes in Iran, the new authorities may be less favorable to Moscow.
What are the potential consequences for Russia?
The fall of the regime in Iran would be a bigger blow to Russia than the overthrow of Assad in Syria. Experts warn that Moscow may lose the opportunity to play the role of an intermediary in the region. Moreover, if the conflict leads to nuclear proliferation in the Middle East, the situation will become even more complicated.
Can Russia gain something?
Despite fear, Russia sees some benefits. The increase in oil prices and limiting Iran supplies can increase China's addiction to Russian raw materials. Any restriction of oil supply from Iran would contribute to a greater rapprochement of Beijing to Moscow – emphasizes Markow. In addition, the redirection of American missile defense systems to the Middle East can weaken military support for Ukraine.
Observe
us in Google news.
