“Nobody here will miss the Russians.” The key ally turns away from Russia and smiles at the EU. Putin makes a desperate attempt
Fate is a foregone conclusion. Armenia no longer wants to wait for the protector who will never come.
The crack can be traced mostly in 2021 and 2022, when Azerbaijan forces conducted cross -border attacks on the territory of Armenia, killing hundreds of Armenian soldiers. Armenia, as a member of the organization of collective security (ZAMB), under the leadership of Russia, expected solidarity. Instead, she met with silence.
From the perspective of Armenia, Azerbaijan would probably not take action in Górski Karabakh if Russia did not invade Ukraine. The war exhausted the Kremlin's resources and attention, leaving the vacuum of power in the southern Caucasus. Baku used this moment, knowing that Russia was too dispersed and weakened to react.
The refusal to intervene on the part of Zakb destroyed the illusion that Russia would fulfill its part of the contract. When in 2023 Górski Karabach, the region, long supported by Armenians, was blocked and then quickly occupied by Azerbaijan, Russian soldiers of the peace forces stood idly.
It was a betrayal for Armenians. Prime Minister Nikol Paszynian has already suspended the participation of Armenia in the activities of the Zakbb and refused to participate in the last peaks. Last week, high -ranking representatives of his government admitted that Armenia would never be a full member of the organization again, and could even come out completely.
At the moment, Armenia quickly breaks with prolonged dependence from Russia as the main guarantor of his safety and goes to the strategic policy of diversification.
Erying, which is no longer content with the role of a geopolitical satellite, strives to deepen relations with the European Union, strengthening cooperation with the United States and normalize relations with Turkey. This change is not exclusively symbolic. This is a definite step towards anchoring the future of Armenia in a multi -speed world, in which security is not commissioned to an indifferent patron, but built through sustainable, pragmatic partnerships.
At the end of May, the second edition of the Ery of Ery of Ery of Dialogue, an international forum dedicated to peace, security and cooperation. Attention was caught not only by who was present there, but also who was not. The speakers included high -level politicians from India, France, Great Britain, Germany, Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, the United States, Iran and the European Union. However, there was nobody from Russia – which is a clear sign of the changing geopolitical landscape of the region.
Tym -ranking members of the Paszyniana party even claim that “entities supported by Russia are trying to destabilize democracy in Armenia.” One of them even joked that the only advantage of Armenia's relations with Russia is that they do not share a common border, which limits the direct influence of Moscow.
Fight for regaining influence
What could have been a subtle influence once looks like a psychological operation from the Cold War. Moscow is trying to regain Armenia – not with tanks, but channels on a telegram, paid influencers and older loyalists.
According to “Wedomosti” Sergei Kirijenko, the first deputy chief of staff Vladimir Putin, was given the task of restoring Russia's influence in Armenia before the parliamentary election in 2026.
It will not be easy. Russian sources themselves admit that there is no one in Armenia “who could speak on behalf of Russia.” Not counting the aging former presidents Robert Koczarian and Serż Sarkisjan, both marked with corruption and nostalgia for authoritarianism, the pro -Russian camp is practically extinct.
Kirijenko is supposed to start with “information work”. In other words, propaganda. Moscow also prepares opposition figures approved by the Kremlin, bringing them quietly to Moscow for consultation.
However, it is difficult to win hearts with empty promises, especially from a country that abandoned you during the war. Armenian public opinion, especially young people, is more interested in visas to Paris and work in the technology industry in the Silicon Valley than Soviet fairy tales.
Armenia not only moves away from Russia. Actively builds new bridges. There is getting closer to the peace agreement with Azerbaijan, which can eventually open closed borders with Turkey and transform Armenia from access to the Sea of the foreground into a regional communication node.
French President Emmanuel Macron and Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Paszynian at the Elyseed Palace in Paris, France, February 10, 2025.
Erivation also deepens relations with the European Union and the United States. Armenia adopted the civilian border mission of the European Union, rejecting Russia's similar offer. This is a consequence of last year's agreement on the withdrawal of Russian border guards from the airport in Yerevan and key border areas near Azerbaijan, which emphasizes Armenia's departure from Moscow's direct control.
European assistance, investments and dialogue on security are getting wider, and American diplomats are increasingly visiting the country. In April 2024, the United States and Armenia began a new strategic dialogue focused on democratic reforms and security in the field of security. These are not just diplomatic courtesy, but issues of key importance.
Armenia understands that her future is not in the shadow of the falling empire, but among liberal democracy that value sovereignty and partnership.
Nobody misses the Russians
Society's trust in Russia has fallen sharply. A survey conducted in 2024 by the International Republican Institute showed that only 31 percent Armenians positively assesses relations with Moscow, compared to 93 percent. in 2019 In the eyes of most Armenians, France became the main political ally of their country, and the United States is right behind it.
However, Putin will not give up so easily. The appointment of Kirijenka is part of a desperate attempt to stop the wave, but it is probably too little and too late. The voices favorable to the Kremlin in Armenia lose their credibility, and Armenian society is no longer afraid to question the motives or the competence of Russia.
On the streets of Erenana, the influx of Russians who came after mobilization has already decreased. Most of around 100,000 Russian refugees returned to the country or left, disappointed with limited possibilities. Nobody misses them.
Armenia may and is thinking about his alliances in the field of security, but will not become a separate planet in the southern Caucasus. Geography is crucial here. Russia remains a neighbor – even without a common border – and trade with Moscow is still a key pillar of Armenia's economy.
From the left: Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Paszynian, President of Kyrgyzstan Sadyr Dżaparow, China leader XI Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin participate in the celebration of the victory day, Moscow, May 9, 2025.
Russian brands, such as Bank WTB, Gazprom and Yandex Taxi, still testify to the presence of Moscow in Armenia. This country also remains largely dependent on Russia in the field of natural gas and electricity.
Even the last increase in trade, driven by celebrating sanctions, is seen as temporary. Under the surface, Russia's influence weakens, and even in the center of Erenana many young people no longer speak Russian or understand this language.
Paszynian's visit to Moscow on the occasion of the victory day on May 9 was a thoughtful gesture to ensure that the Kremlin's return that Armenia's return towards the west does not mean a complete break of relations with Russia.
However, last month, the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov went to Erenana for conversations with the Pasynian, which was widely recognized as an attempt to restore Russia's weakening influence.
The signal was clear: Armenia no longer treats Moscow as his default protector. Lavrov came not as a trusted ally, but as a messenger of the power whose security guarantees have repeatedly failed.
If Russia really wants to remain a significant player in the southern Caucasus, it must accept the fact that coercion no longer works.
Armenia became convinced that Moscow's promises are conditional, unbelievable and ultimately serve only her own interests. Now Erywan is setting his own course. Russia may still be present, but there is no more decisive voice.
