The latest war in the Middle East is already taking the fourth day. On Friday morning, Israel conducted a series of attacks on military and nuclear facilities in Iran, killing leading scientists and military commanders of this country. Since then, a fire exchange between two regional powers has been going on. Iran makes rocket shells of Israel's territory with rockets, and Israeli aviation bombards subsequent goals in Iran.
As of Monday afternoon in Iran, at least 224 people died, and in Israel – at least 24 hundred people were injured on both sides of the conflict.
The Israeli army reports that it obtained dominance in the Iranian airspace, and its planes move freely over the territory of this country. In the last hours they have carried out further raids to the capital Tehran.
– Iranian anti -aircraft defense is in a very poor condition if you can still talk about it as a coherent system. I did not expect Israel to destroy it so quickly – says Marcin Krzyżanowski, an orientalist from the Jagiellonian University and a former Consul of the Republic of Poland in Kabul, specializing in the subject of Iran. – I thought that Iranian defense would be able to resist for several or several hours. However, it was taken by surprise and turned off almost immediately – he adds.
Krzyżanowski points out that taking into account the Israeli dominance in the air, “Iran seems to be in a lost position.” He reserves, however, that it is too early to delete Tehran's military abilities.
-The only thing Iran has up his sleeve and for which he has built his potential for over a decade, is a drone-racket arsenal. It is already intensively used against Israel, although with a debatable effect – notes the expert. Most of the over 300 Iranian rockets fired so far have been knocked by Israeli air defense. Some of them, however, fell on Tel Aviv and Hajfa, causing significant damage and numerous victims.
– The open question is how many of these bullets still remained Iran, especially those hypersonic, i.e. the most modern – emphasizes Krzyżanowski. – It all depends on the effectiveness of Israeli raids. If Israel manages to significantly reduce the number of Iranian rockets, Iran will lose this conflict clearly. However, if Iran is able to maintain the ability to set goals in Israel for the next few or several days, he will be able to announce victory, or at least no failure.
– Most experts say that Iran has not yet used their most dangerous hypersonic rockets. And he certainly did not do it on a large scale – adds Onet interlocutor.
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Israel's pious wishes
The Prime Minister of Israel Binjamin Netanyahu on Sunday said that one of the effects of the campaign against Iran may be the fall of theocratic government in Tehran. Krzyżanowski, however, is skeptical of such a scenario.
– Israeli declarations that they want to overthrow the government in Tehran are partly part of the propaganda war, and partly piety. No political system is resistant to shocks and everyone can fall, and the Islamic Republic is struggling with many structural problems, including growing social resistance. However, the state apparatus is able to survive this conflict and rather survive it – says the expert.
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Smoke over Tehran after an Israeli raid
Krzyżanowski admits that he follows Iranian media on an ongoing basis. As he points out, “the mood in them is combat.” – Of course, these media is subject to state controls, but they are also an indicator of trends. You can hear about Iran's successes. According to the local media, the anti-aircraft defense was to shoot down three Israeli F-35 fighters and several older aircraft. There is also information about huge damage that Iran's rockets caused in Israeli infrastructure. There are also very frequent reports from the places of hits of Israeli missiles. They focus on how fast and efficiently Iranian services with destruction are doing. There are also images of Iranian civilians killed in Israeli air raids – says the Orientalist.
Iran hunts on sabotage artists
According to the media, the success of the first Israeli impact was largely due to the action of subversive groups on Iran's territory. They were to prepare previously armed drones, which at the right moment attacked and neutralized the Iranian anti -aircraft defense.
– Israel certainly has a subversive limestone in Iran and is in contact with organizations fighting Islamic Republic. Some of the Israeli successes are the result of sabotage. I see a lot of attention in Iranian media devoted to defense against sabotists. The authorities have launched a special helpline, which citizens can call and report suspicious behavior – says Onet Krzyżanowski.
He emphasizes that the Iranian army can also talk about certain achievements, although definitely more limited. Iran managed to penetrate the Israeli anti -aircraft defense and hit in Israel's territory. This is a success because they broke through an immeasurable iron dome. However, we do not know – due to the Israeli military censorship – what is exactly the effect of these strokes. Israel is far from throwing on his knees – says the orientalist from the Jagiellonian University.
“It will be a key factor”
Hezbollah, a Shiite armed organization controlling the southern part of Lebanon at the border with Israel, was considered a key advantage of Iran. She also has her rocket arsenal at her disposal and is closely associated with the government in Tehran. In the case of Israel's war with Iran, she was to help the latter. For now, however, this has not happened.
“Hezbollah may join the conflict, but for now it is unlikely,” says Krzyżanowski. – He is still licking wounds after the war with Israel. Perhaps some desperate movements could occur in a goalkeeper situation. But for now I think Hezbollah will sit quietly, he emphasizes. In the autumn of 2024, in conflict with Israel, the highest rank leaders of Hezbollah were killed, and the organization's military potential was significantly limited.
What can you expect in the coming days? – There is probably no breakthrough. The open question is the condition of the Iranian rocket arsenal. It will be a key factor – says Krzyżanowski.
– If Iran is not able to deal with severe blows to Israel, there is a greater chance to avoid escalation – the expert points out. – However, if he maintains his potential, he will continue firing up. Israel's first attack was also a great image blow. Iran is now trying to show that he is able to continue defending himself and even attack.
I’m Ashley Davis as an editor, I’m committed to upholding the highest standards of integrity and accuracy in every piece we publish. My work is driven by curiosity, a passion for truth, and a belief that journalism plays a crucial role in shaping public discourse. I strive to tell stories that not only inform but also inspire action and conversation.
