Expert: Trump plays good clay. “Bibi went crazy, so sit down to negotiate, Ayatollah”
“The abilities that once again demonstrated the Israeli intelligence services in a stunning way, showed that Israel completely penetrated the Iranian national security infrastructure,” said the diplomat. – It should therefore be assumed that if he wanted, he is also able to attack political leaders. If the Israelis do this, it can lead to the reaction of the Iran resembling Armagedon – he warned in an interview with Politico, meaning the attack aimed at other countries, including the United States.
How do Israeli attacks on Iran change the situation in the Middle East?
We are at a completely new stage of the problem with the nuclear reinforcement of Iran. Israel will not withdraw until he thinks that he has achieved its goal, which is the liquidation of the nuclear potential of Iran. And this raises another question: is he able to do it? It is striking for me that so far they have attacked the uranium processing center in Natanz, but apparently not at the Uranus enrichment plant in Ford, which is a deeper and more difficult -to -accessible goal.
At least for now. Israelis say that it may take several days or weeks and cover commandos.
The question arises whether Israel is counting on the United States to destroy Ford? This, of course, leads to the third main issue: what will the United States do?
Initially, it seemed that Trump wanted to continue nuclear negotiations with Tehran and could be against these attacks. But at the same time he did not give any clear signal to “stop”. The Israelis claim that this meant that he really gave them green light to attack.
Apparently the United States has been informed about the attack plan. We saw the decision to withdraw the embassy in Baghdad, a trip of American soldiers from the region – in retrospect, these are quite clear signals that we knew what was being prepared. So I have to assume that Trump did not give red light. Common sense suggests that he plays the role of good clay, suggesting: “My Bibi buddy [Netanyahu] It completely went crazy, and you, Ayatollah Chamenei, better sit at the table and conclude a contract before something worse. Trump may expect Iran to come back to negotiations.
But do you think there is any chance that the Iranians will actually come back to negotiations?
What would be a reaction reminiscent of Armageddon in this situation, taking into account serious doubts about the real retaliation of Iran?
I think they would include attacks on your region and the United States in the region. In the second case, if not in the first, it would of course cause the need to take a definite response from the USA. Iranian drones and missiles are not effective. They were deprived of many asymmetrical abilities and allies.
US Ambassador in Kabul Ryan Crocker (L) and Minister of Foreign Affairs of Afghanistan Zalmai Rassooul during the ceremony in Kabul in Afghanistan, 4 July 2012.
Israel decimated Hezbollah and Hamas. Israelis are now clearly taking action just because they believe that retaliation abilities [Iranu] have been decimated. What damage can Iran really do?
I do not think that in the short period he caused great damage to Israel. I think that the list of goals would be on the list of goals. The defense of the Persian Gulf is not so strong and they could probably cause significant damage there. But other sites, including the United States, are reluctant to engage in this conflict. You saw a statement [irackiego przywódcy szyitów] Moktady al-Sadra? Of course, he vigorously and loudly condemned this open aggression of Israel, and then stated that Iraq must stay away from this fight.
The question remains whether Israel believes that it is able to immobilize Iranian energy infrastructure. This would certainly cause Iran's retaliation against the energy infrastructure of other Persian Gulf countries, and this is something that the United States could not accept, taking into account the economic damage that would cause for the economy.
Iran has very limited possibilities. Does this mean that there is no other choice but to undertake negotiations – and quickly? Especially if Chamenei suspects that if he doesn't, he can also be killed?
Perhaps this is an attempt to change the regime by Israel?
It would be a very optimistic assumption from the Israeli. As experience shows, authoritarian regimes are very strong until they lose power, as in Syria, but the degree to which this can be predicted or even definitely influenced from the outside is doubtful. Can it cause a revolution? Let's recall the green revolution from 2009. [protesty po wyborach prezydenckich, w których władze zostały oskarżone o fałszerstwa]. It seems to me that the same dynamics still persists, that there is common dissatisfaction with the regime in Iran, but the problem is the same: there is no visible leadership of real opposition.
Smoke from oil refinery over residential buildings in the southern part of Tehran, Iran, June 15, 2025.
What do you think what will happen now? Will there be a war on a larger scale, which many are afraid of, or Iran will hesitate to get into it by the United States and instead conduct attacks on more susceptible Arab states? Just to show that he can do something?
In addition to symbolic shots of rockets and drones towards Israel, in my opinion Iran will answer in some other surprising way, probably not against Israel and probably not against the United States, for fear of getting us into conflict. Arab countries remain the most likely goal. I can imagine rocket or drone attacks on capitals in the region. We do not have any anti -missile shield that would cover the entire Arabian Peninsula. For example, in the Persian Gulf countries, air defense capabilities are limited and uncoordinated. So if I made decisions in Tehran and were determined to take action, I would like them to have a significant impact.
What would this goal be? Only to show that they are able to do it?
Yes, I think that is the point. Because, to be honest, not taking any action would be a complete failure.
This raises the question of how the competition between Sunniths and Szyites can join in this situation. Until now, Iran seemed to strive to get close to Arab countries, especially with Saudi Arabia. Can voltages between sunnit and Shiites explode again?
This would not be so related to religious divisions, but rather with the perception of these countries as Western allies to show that the countries with which Israel maintains relations are attacked by an Islamic republic. Because this is the only thing they can do. The only other option is sitting and enduring it. And this would undermine the fundamental ID of the Islamic Republic.
Looking at the way Biden's administration coped with this situation, do you think that it failed in attempts to negotiate with Iran?
I think JCPOA [porozumienie nuklearne wynegocjowane przez administrację Obamy w 2015 r.] It was probably our best chance. Yes, and when Trump broke them off, I'm not sure if there was a real diplomatic plan B, which would work at all or would be worth trying.
So do you think that Iranians are preparing for a long war with Israel? In other words, maybe they can't answer now, but in five or ten years they will be?
I can easily imagine a script in which Iran simply digs up, does not give up nuclear ambitions and is still looking for ways to develop the program. Along with the defeat of other elements of the Iranian expansion policy, first its allies, and then a rocket program, only this one option remains. It is impossible to kill all Iranian scientists dealing with nuclear weapons. Nuclear potential exists, it cannot be completely eliminated.
How would you assess the current balance of power in the Middle East? ANDZrael now seems to occupy the position of a definite dominator thanks to its military power and intelligence skills.
We saw Israel's tactical brilliance, which was favored by happiness in Syria. The Israelis had nothing to do with the Syrian revolution, but they certainly used it [na usunięciu Baszszara al-Assada, sojusznika Iranu, co pomagło im wyeliminować zagrożenie ze strony Hezbollahu]. Whether this will translate into strategic success, remains an open issue. We do not know where this game will lead to decisively eliminate the nuclear potential of Iran. I am not sure if they can achieve it, I am not even sure if we are [Stanom Zjednoczonym i Izraelowi] It will work together.
I would even go to say that the most likely result will be that regardless of the damage in Iran and the region, Iran will still be determined to strive to obtain nuclear weapons, regardless of everything. I don't think this determination has changed. It will probably be strengthened.
