US commercial talks with the European Union do not bring results, which will result in the introduction of 50 %. customs duties on imports from community countries – this is the opinion of President Donald Trump. The escalation of the conflict can lead to the reduction of Polish GDP by 0.43 percent. – in turn indicates the Polish Economic Institute. At the same time, a court battle is underway in the US regarding the exceeding of the rights by President Donald Trump and the legality of recently announced duties.
The financial market expects decisions in this matter. Meanwhile, the euro from the beginning of 2025 strengthened the dollar by almost 10 percent. And this already worsens the situation of exporters from the euro area to the USA, but also from other EU countries, whose currencies are strongly related to euro economic contacts.
The uncertainty related to the US customs policy is a serious risk factor for Polish companies, including those that operate in the e-commerce sector on an over-border scale. The situation is not improved by the economic condition of Germany, i.e. the largest foreign recipient of goods from Polish online stores – according to the latest forecasts of the European Commission, Germany will end 2025 with zero dynamics of economic growth – believes Ebury analyst.
“It is worth developing a space in other markets and taking advantage of the e-commerce growing trend that is still rising. The ECDB analysis from March this year indicates that while the global revenues of the cross-border sector e-commerce exceeded in 2024 the amount of $ 1.1 trillion, the forecast at 2025 indicates the possibility of exceeding $ 1.2 million (+25 percent against 2022) ” – he explains.
The Polish sector E-Handel Foreign will grow in Central and Eastern Europe
Increase in the costs of conducting operations translating into the price of goods prices, and also changes in global supply chains, leading to delays in transport and deliveries – these are the basic effects of the customs war that entrepreneurs trading online abroad are afraid of entrepreneurs. They often compare the current situation to turbulence in trade with Great Britain, which took place as a result of Brexit – indicates Maciej Michalski.
“At that time, Polish exporters came out of a defensive hand.
Observations of Ebury experts indicate that Polish entities present in the Cross-Border E-commerce sector will definitely look for their chances in Central and Eastern European countries. These are markets with great potential compared to the saturated, highly competitive and dominated by the Amazon market of Western Europe.
Countries such as Romania, Bulgaria, Slovakia, as well as the Czech Republic known from the significant participation of e-commerce in retail trade create a greater chance for safe development and higher margins. At the same time, they allow you to optimize the costs of transporting goods.
“This can be seen even after the growing activity of Polish e-stores on the Marketplace popular in these countries, e.g. EMAG-according to the” Cross-Border from Poland 2024 “report (prepared by IDOSELL in cooperation with Gointernational), e-commerce seller in Romania and Bulgaria, they record sales increases in the order of 20-39 % annually”-we read in analysis.
“It is worth noting that the desire to develop cross-border sales channels by domestic entrepreneurs is part of a clear general European trend-only last year as much as 36 percent of e-commerce purchases in Europe were implemented in the cross-border model (TOP 500 B2C Cross-Border Retail Europe)”-adds the analyst.
In turn, in the Polish e-commerce sector, according to Eurostat, in 2024. The share of cross -border sales to other EU countries reached 6 percent, and to non -EU countries – over 2 percent (Eurostat: Percentage of Turnover from e-commerce).
Polish companies are more and more boldly looking over the ocean. Chances in Canada
The uncertainty related to the US customs policy remains enormous. It can be assumed that companies from the cross-border sector e-commerce, currently present or planning investments in this country, will look for alternatives and opportunities for more predictable development-says Maciej Michalski.
“Our talks with entrepreneurs indicate that for e-stores who want to sell outside Europe, Canada may be a perspective market in North America. Trade relations with this country are regulated by the CETA agreement, which eliminates duties for most of the goods in the exchange between Canada and the EU. And the potential of the Canadian market is very tempting – it is enough to mention almost 30 million consumers buying online and over 30 percent. participation of cross-border in the e-commerce market “-indicates the analyst Ebury.
And although in the cross -border online trade in Canada the exchange of goods from the US dominates, according to him, entrepreneurs see their chance in deterioration of these relationships, for the sake of customs duties or high uncertainty associated with them. They hope that they will be able to develop part of the market and offer goods to Canadian customers.
“What product categories are successful? ECDB indicates in the report from April this this year that the largest of the category sold in North America in the e-commerce channel is: electronics, hobby and entertainment, fashion”-says Michalski.
According to ECDB data (April 2025) The e-commerce market in Canada is developing at a rate of 7.1 percent. annually. Sales on it is focused around the largest Marketplace platforms – 57 percent The turnover is generated by the top five, including Amazon, Walmart and Costco.
Currency risk very high
The analyst also indicates that the threat of a global trade war has led to very high variability on the currency market. This can be seen primarily at the exchange rate of the most important currency pair of EUR/USD. Since the beginning of the year, the euro has strengthened the dollar by about 10 percent, also without affecting USD/PLN. The zloty exchange rate towards the American currency is currently on the border of the exports indicated by the NBP – he emphasizes.
The ratings of the zloty to the local currencies of the aforementioned countries look much more stable, i.e. Hungarian, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic or Canada.
“Ebury experiences show that a favorable solution for entrepreneurs selling on Marketplace platforms abroad are settlements in local currencies via local IBAN numbers (it is also possible to use virtual iban). Companies in this way av significant fees for converting ” – describes Michalski.
He also emphasizes that in a period of high variability on the market, it is worth considering securing the exchange rate using appropriate financial instruments (e.g. Forward contracts) – they allow you to plan revenues without fear that the unfavorable change of the course will deprive the entrepreneur of the expected margin.
“During the market confusion related to the mentioned Brexit, Polish entrepreneurs showed that they can find themselves in a difficult situation and even strengthen their position in Great Britain. Therefore, also at the customs war of Donald Trump, it is worth looking not only – of course – in terms of threats, but also emerging opportunities” – we read in the analysis.
