Donald Trump is unable to understand what Putin's war really is about
Russian leader Vladimir Putin looks more and more accused. Ukrainians have just carried out a stunning drone attack on strategic bombers in distant Russian air bases. Putin's battered troops are fighting for a significant territory in Ukraine, and In two years the front line has barely moved. His economy is a dangerous mix, and inflation slows down growth.
Given all these challenges, why will Putin not abandon his goal, which is the conquest of Ukraine? In recent days I have asked former American officials to various versions of this question. In the end I realized that this was the wrong question – and the wrong way to think about the whole war.
Putin will never give up his ambitions of the conquest of Ukraine, and convincing him to do so should not be the goal of global supporters of Ukraine. Instead, the goal should be preventing Putin from fulfilling this ambition. Simply put: Putin cannot be forced to leave Ukraine alone; You have to make Ukraine be out of its reach.
On the occasion of the proposals of new sanctions of many Russian observers, Trump will use this moment to show Putin that Even if he cannot control his ambition, it can make their realization too painful for him. The same analysts warn, however, that the new sanctions themselves will not make Putin back back. Just like continuous military assistance for Ukraine or sharp statements in social media.
It seems that Trump and some of his most important advisers do not understand this in relation to Putin. They sent mixed signals about their views on the authoritarian President of Russia, and Trump behaved as if “carrots” of economic contracts and posts on the Truth Social platform could convince him.
Showing Putin that he can absolutely not subordinate Ukraine, will require all these tactics and more. It will also require patience.
– That is why missions such as the shooting down of some strategic bombers by Ukraine are performed. It hurts. It is expensive-said Andrea Kendall-Taylor, a former clerk of American intelligence. – Can we impose sufficient costs to finally say: “I can't do it forever”?.
Trump lacks a coherent method
I am not the first person who claims that Putin will never change his belief that Ukraine belongs to Russia. From the writings of Putin himself, it is clear that He is convinced that Kyiv must be under Russia's controlif Moscow wants to reach new peaks on the international arena. Former secretary of state Antony Blinken suggested that Putin's view is “theological”. A certain analyst claims that the best strategy of the West in this war may be to wait for Putin's death.
The White House clerk, in response to the request for a comment from the administration, told me that Trump “was always hard towards Putin.” An official who was granted anonymity so that he could delicate diplomatic issues, he added: – The foreign policy of this president is unique because it can be hard for our opponents, but at the same time is able to look everyone in the eye to try to provide peace.
However, many words and actions of Trump indicate that he limited how hard Putin is in striving to gain Ukraine. During the campaign, Trump has repeatedly declared that he could end the war within the first 24 hours after returning to the office – now he claims that the claim was a joke, but still made Putin easier to convince. In the following months, the president seemed amazed that Putin was not inferior to Ukraine. Trump has recently been surprised that the Russian leader “completely went crazy”. Trump also seems frustrated by the lack of Putin's seriousness in conversations about the suspension of weapons.
Trump's hard words are striking, taking into account his earlier efforts to get Putin. However, his methods are not always consistent. In Wednesday's post in social media after talking to Putin Trump he became passive. He claimed that the Russian made him clear that he would have to retaliate for drone attacks in Ukraine. “It was a good conversation, but not a conversation that would lead to an immediate room,” Trump wrote, not to say if he called Putin to avoid escalation.
Donald Trump on the balcony of the White House. Washington, June 4, 2025
Comments and moves of other people in administration also suggest a lack of clarity about the head of the Kremlin, who for the first time attacked Ukraine over a decade ago.
The rejection of Ukrainian fears by the vice president of JD Vance that Putin will not maintain a peace agreement – the most significant example is an awkward meeting in the oval office with the Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelnski – he indicates that he does not fully understand the depth of Putin's desires. This probably also increased Russia's certainty that her efforts to drive a wedge between Washington and his allies, including Ukraine and the European Union, bring results.
The statement of the Secretary of State Marco Rubio that the United States can simply give up attempts to solve the crisis, also did not help Kiev. This suggests that the USA lacks patience and that the Russians should strive to gain a decisive advantage in the war. And if Putin believes in something, it's time that it's time to play in his favor.
“Taco” versus Putin
What exactly is Putin's critical point? The point where he will give up the takeover of Ukraine? – These kinds of things are very difficult to estimate. This is the psychology of one man – Eddie Fishman told me, a former official of the State Department who dealt with sanctions imposed on Russia.
Some of these Russian specialists say Putin is probably aware of the “Taco” concept [“Trump Always Chickens Out”, czyli Trump Zawsze Tchórzy]which has gained popularity on Wall Street and among other spheres. The inconsistency of Trump's policy and his frequent withdrawal, e.g. in the case of duties, may suggest to Putin that the US President will try to finish off the market, but ultimately he will bend, giving Moscow a field of maneuver.
The Sanction Act is a kind of test for Trump and whether he really understands Putin's thinking. Gained the support of most American senators and contains strict regulations aimed at Defeating the last main source of Russia's income: Energy Export. Legislation would impose a 500 % duties on countries that still buy Russian oil, gas, uranium and other materials.
It is doubtful whether the amount of 500 percent It will survive to the end of the talks between the White House and the Capitol. Customs tariffs would affect the main trading partners of the USA in Europe, China and India, having havoc in the global economy. Nevertheless, regardless of which version of the act survives, it can deal a serious blow to Russia.
If Trump signs the act, the Kremlin should worry because This will mean that the president is not afraid of the escalation of the conflict with Moscow. But if he signs the law and then delay, withdraw or otherwise enforces sanctions and duties, Putin will believe that Trump is withdrawing again and that he can use the capriciousness of the American leader.
If Trump also does not take other significant steps to help Ukraine, especially on the front of military assistance, it can strengthen it even more Putin's belief that he and his troops can eventually defeat Kyiv.
Carrot without a stick
Of course, the Kremlin ruler can still agree to peace conversations – in a sense he has already done it, although he tends to send powerless subordinates to sessions on his behalf. It seems that these movements are aimed at buying time from Trumpself -proclaimed expert on concluding contracts, which is willing to compromise. Even if Putin agrees to a permanent suspension of weapons or other type of break in the fighting, Russian analysts I talked to think that he will use the stopping downtime and will eventually make another move against Kiev.
One of Trump's tactics, which will not work on Putin, is promising him economic contractsif it comes to an agreement with Ukraine. For honesty – Putin himself raised this perspective, trying to relieve sanctions from Trump, which largely perceives the world through the prism of business.
The reality is that the Russian economy has been transformed since the full invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Currently, it is highly driven by the war itself. There are signs that it cannot last forever, but it lasts longer than expected by many Western officials and analysts.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is chairing a meeting with government members via video conferences. Nowa-Ogarowo near Moscow, June 4, 2025.
Putin probably also realizes that even if Trump abolished all American sanctions against Russia, American companies are unlikely to enter the Russian market in the near future. There are too many threats, including the possibility that the future US president may impose sanctions again. In addition, European sanctions will probably remain in force.
-Considering the sanctions and export controls that must be abolished, not to mention the reputational risk and the operating environment in Russia, it is difficult to see that Western companies would hurry back to this market-Randi Levinas, former operational director of the currently resolved US-Russia business council told me.
Putin is in the corner. But while everyone is watching him He still has an eye on Ukraine. All of Ukraine.
