Glapiński: Polish debt may exceed 60% of GDP for the first time for the first time

After the May cut of interest rates, the June pause came. The decision of the MPC was covered with predictions of analysts and earlier announcements of the President of NBP Adam Glapiński, who during the conference organized a day later assessed the current economic situation in Poland.

Nearly a month ago, the Monetary Policy Council decided on the first reduction in interest rates since October 2023 and at once by 50 base points. However, the president of NBP Adam Glapiński left no illusions that the decision there was a “adaptation” of the monetary policy, and not the beginning of a permanent cycle of reductions.

The statements of President Glapiński became the fulfillment and interest rates remained unchanged in June. In accordance with the decision of the Monetary Policy Council, published on June 4, 2025, they form as follows.

• reference rate: 5.25 percent on an annual basis (previously 5.25 percent),
• Lombard foot: 5.75 percent on an annual basis (previously 5.75 percent),
• deposit rate: 4.75 percent on an annual basis (previously 4.75 percent),
• Bill of exchange rates: 5.55 percent on an annual basis (previously 5.55 percent),
• Discount rate of bills of exchange: 5.60 percent on an annual basis. (previously: 5.60 percent)

The Thursday press conference of the President of the NBP may provide some answers to questions about the further steps of the MPC and will be closely observed by economists and market commentators.

In addition, during the speech planned for 15:00 June 5, prof. Adam Glapiński will make a customary assessment of the current economic situation in Poland. We invite you to track the bankier.pl report from this event.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eh7ow8bcyt0

According to the declaration at the June meeting, the Council analyzed new available information that indicated that inflation has decreased, but remaining below the NBP target. The Monetary Policy Council recognized after a lively discussion that interest rates should be left unchanged – the NBP president Adam Glapiński began the conference.

Throughout 2025, we expect faster economic growth than last year, which is good information, but from the NBP point of view, it can be pro -wire. […] The wage growth dynamics in the economy have slowed down, but still is 10%, which is also a proinflation factor – said Adam Glapiński.

As for the inflation itself in May, the annual price dynamics was 4.1%, which is still above the NBP target – said Glapiński. According to the President of the National Bank of Poland, projections indicate that inflation may go down to 3%this year.

There are signals from the government that energy prices for individual recipients will not change due to favorable conditions on global energy markets. However, the loose fiscal policy of the government remains a risk factor – noted Adam Glapiński.

According to the EC forecasts, the fiscal strengthening will not occur next year, and the forecast struct deficit will remain high. According to these forecasts, Poland's debt may exceed 60% of GDP for the first time for the first time – said the president of the NBP.

As for the next decisions, we can say as we will make them by analyzing current flowing information. The situation is variable, uncertain, the signals coming from the market are mixed. In July, we will have a new projection in the MPC, which will allow you to better forecast the inflation path in the long run. Unfortunately, in July we will still not know energy prices in the fourth quarter or budget project next year – said Glapiński.

Answering the question of the Bloomberg agency, President Glapiński said that some members of the MPC are willing to think about a reduction in July, making this dependent on the incoming data, and some spoke about autumn, assessing that the budget design and knowledge of the shape of electricity prices are necessary.

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