What next with loan installments? The first meeting of the MPC after the presidential election today
In May, the Monetary Policy Council reduced the reference rate by 50 base points on Wednesdayi.e. half a percentage point, which was in line with the expectations of most economists.
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“It was a long -awaited decision. Before today's reduction, the real interest rate (ex ANTE) was the highest from the beginning of 2015 and amounted to 2.4 percent” – the economists of the ING bank wrote on the X. platform at that time.
– We did it [cięcie stóp] Neither late nor early, and when it belonged. I pointed out a month ago that inflation prospects improved – the president of the National Bank of Poland commented on this decision Adam Glapiński. He added that there was a strong pressure of developers on the MPC to lower the feet earlier.
He noted, however, that such a May movement of the MPC “However, it does not automatically mean the beginning of the reduction cycle. “
So economists assume that the Monetary Policy Council will keep interest rates at an unchanged level. In the case of the NBP reference rate, it would remain at 5.25 percent.
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“We expect Pause in June and the MPC transition to a series of interest rate reductions in movements by 25 pb. In our opinion, the next rate reduction will take place in July, and the next in September and November. As a result, at the end of 2025, the reference rate should be 4.50 percent – economists of ING wrote in their commentary.
As they added, in 2026 we expect further foot cuts on a 75PB scale, up to 3.75 percent. at the end of next year.
The impact of the political situation on the decision of the MPC
It is worth noting, however, that in the long run, monetary policy can be complex to some extent by politics. It is about the last win of Karol Nawrocki, which can be a stimulus for the government to conduct an expansive social policy to encourage further groups of electorate.
“The results of the presidential election intensify the risk of turmoil on the Polish political scene, and high support for right -wing groups increases the likelihood of changing power in the next parliamentary election in 2027. In such conditions, the current government may be reluctant to fiscal consolidation before the election “ – Bank Millennium economists assessed.
This situation would mean pumping borrowed money directly into the economy, which is a phenomenon that increases inflation. Then the sharper monetary policy is desirable.
