The “spider” surgery scared the Russians. Col. Lewandowski: A prestigious blow for the Kremlin
The Ukrainians were still planning to attack the Ukrainian base in the Amur region, but the car transporting the drones did not arrive near the target and was probably burned by Ukrainian subversives. In addition, explosions were observed in the port of Siewieromorsk where atomic submarines are based.
The attack once again confirmed the high abilities of Ukrainian special services to conduct activities in the territory of the Russian Federation and compromised Russian intelligence and counterintelligence services. It is also a prestigious blow for the Kremlin, but how much will affect the course of the armed conflict at the Ukrainian theater of war operations and the general abilities of the Russian armed forces to projection of force?
The Russians lost from a few to several Tu-95 bombers, counting the machines completely damaged and damaged. These are construction aircraft from the 1950s, but deeply modernized in the 1980s, with a turboprop drive, were to be the equivalent of the B-52 American bombers that were still in use. In addition, several more modern jet bombers were hit by Tu-22M3 and one early warning aircraft (AWACS) type A-50.
The Russian industry currently does not manufacture these machines, but only modernized copies used for 30 years. Therefore, the Russians will not be able to supplement the losses. Russia uses Tu-95 and Tu-22M3 for rocket attacks primarily on Ukrainian critical infrastructure as carriers of maneuvering missiles CH-55, CH-101, CH-555 and CH-102. Missiles with a range of 1500 to 2500 km inflicted serious losses to the Ukrainian energy and heating system.
It is not certain how many Russian bombers are technically functional. It is estimated that about 30-40 bombers are kept in a “volatile” state Tu-95 and 50 TU-22M3. However, the Russians use a few to several machines of this type for attacks once. If, despite my doubts, the destruction or serious damage to over forty machines was confirmed, this would have a significant impact on the effectiveness of attacks, because the consumption of these machines quickly progresses. The loss of even a dozen or so will allow the Russians to maintain the intensity of the raids at a similar level.
In addition, long-range Russian aviation has much more modern Tu-160 bombers. Currently, they are not used by a combat because Russia has only a dozen of them and constitute a strategic reserve of the federation. However, their use cannot be ruled out in a situation of significant weakening of the ability after the Ukrainian attack.
An element of the Russian nuclear triad was attacked, which consists of strategic aviation, terrestrial long -range ballistic missiles (mobile and stationary) and nuclear submarines. Loss of up to a dozen or so machines, Ukrainian intelligence talks about over forty, which is unlikely, It will significantly weaken one of their elements.
However, globally, it will affect the Russian ability to conduct a nuclear conflict because their main ingredient are missiles located in rocket bases, on mobile launchers and under the decks of submarines.
The attack will significantly disorganize the action of Russian bases throughout Russia, not just aviation. An innovative way of conducting an attack, such scenarios have so far appeared only in the animations of arms companies, It will force the federation to introduce completely new solutions for the protection and defense of bases.
Finally, I will not refrain from reflection on the protection of Polish critical and military infrastructure against unconventional attacks. In my opinion it is at least insufficient.
