Russia gathers troops at the border. The expert indicates Putin's main goal
Mariia Tsiptsura: In recent days we have been witnessing massive air attacks on Ukraine. It looks like the escalation of Russia's offensive activities. How do you assess this situation?
Pawło Norożny: I would not say that there was a fundamental change in the Russian strategy. We just haven't been dealing with such massive attacks for some time. But earlier, Ukrainian intelligence reported that the Russians would soon be able to fire 500 Shahids at once.
There was also information about increasing weapon production in Russia. They do not stop producing ballistic and maneuvering missiles. Meanwhile, there was relative silence in Ukraine. Shahids flew every night, but not in such a number. So the Russians accumulated the supplies of drones and missiles and are now using them.
It may sound like a conspiracy theory, but we can assume that the Russians like symbolic dates very much. And last weekend was Kiev Day, so they “congratulated us”. This version can be adopted because Putin apparently hates Kiev and in this way wanted to “congratulate” the inhabitants of the capital.
Something changed in how the Russians carry out fire?
Shahids are now flying at a maximum height – up to 5 km. This is not a new tactic, but they flew at a minimum height for some time, so they were not visible from afar, although it was easier to shoot down.
Now the Russians are flying at high altitudes, and Shahid's hit from a machine gun is almost impossible. Above 3 km there is already an operational zone of cheetahs or short -range rockets. There is also an air option – from aircraft or helicopters, but all this is much more expensive. In addition, rockets require starting platforms, and the number of helicopters and aircraft in Ukraine is limited. We even lost the F-16 while defending cities.
However, generally the situation has not changed. The Russians just gathered a lot of equipment. If 30-50 shahids were launched before, it is now 300.
The situation on the front remains dynamic
What is the situation on the front line? Information about Russia's offensive appeared in the SUM area. What's going on there?
The situation in the sums is really very tense. The Russians concentrated 60-65 thousand there. soldiers and apparently prepare for further offensive. They are also trying to destroy the Ukrainian abutment in the Kursk region. But so far there is no indication that they have succeeded. They also storm several small villages in the SUM area.
Their main goal is to reach Junakiwka. It is a large village in which there was once a border crossing. If the Russians manage to get there and get a foothold, they will be able to create a powerful fortress there. There are many houses, there is a place to defend.
Why the summary circuit?
First of all, it is logistically convenient. There is a very short supply chain there – staff and resources can accumulate right off the border. When they work deeper in Ukraine, this is an expedition surgery and everything must be brought from Russia. And in the summary region logistics facilities are literally 20 km away.
Secondly, the summary circuit itself does not have a great strategic significance – there are no major enterprises there. The main goal is the Kharkow region. However, this is a very distant goal. At the current pace of progress, reaching them will take them five years. And this is doubtful. It is also a difficult area, with many rivers and forests.
For example, a large forest begins behind the town of Juniowka, which continues to the city of a sum. It is difficult to conduct combat operations in such an environment. Let's recall the Sieriebrian Las in the Lugansk region – the Russians got stuck there for a long time, losing a huge number of people. And they still can't get through this forest. So I doubt that they would succeed in the summary region. The ratio of losses is already about 1 to 15 or even 1 to 20. Ukrainian artillery and drones are very close, effectively eliminating both people and equipment.
What about other sections of the front?
The situation in the Kharkiv region is also very tense, but the Russians exert less pressure. Ukrainian forces tried to enter and gain a foothold in the Belgorodu region – it was a preventive operation, aimed at ensuring that the fights are taking place in the territory of the enemy.
In other regions, the largest number of clashes occurred in the vicinity of Pokrowsk and Torecka (Donetsk region). This is the hottest part of the front line. The Russians are trying to conquer Pokrowsk to cut off the path of Myrnohrad-Konstantinowka. It is a route that Ukraine uses to deliver its strength to the Slavic-Mustratorsk agglomeration. If the Russians get the way, they will be able to paralyze logistics. This means that Ukraine will be very difficult to maintain these territories. We control about 20-25 percent Donetsk region. The loss of the logistics trail will significantly complicate the situation – the supply of ammunition, food, water, rotation. That is why they are so persistently attacking Pokrowsk.
What is the probability that Russia is brown?
Forecasting is an ungrateful task. The situation may change tomorrow, for example, a new supply of weapons may come. That is why I will refrain from any assessments. However, I hope that our army will keep Pokrowsk. Very strong units are fighting there – one of the best in the country. The commander -in -chief of Oleksandr Syrski reports that we have stabilized the situation and even took the initiative.
“Putin will not give up the plan to destroy Ukraine”
You mentioned that there are no signs for the Russians to be able to destroy the Ukrainian abutment in the Kursk region. How big is he?
Small. And he is constantly attacked. On the front scale it is 15-20 km long and 3-5 km wide. But this abutment is on hills, which gives us an advantage in defense. The Russians must go uphill – this complicates the use of equipment and slows down the offensive. The storm on the hill is a difficult task. Despite constant attacks and massive bombing, our units persist.
From what you say, there are no signs of a possible truce.
Peace is only possible in one case – if Russia is unable to continue the war. For example, because of economic exhaustion. There are no other options. It is clear that Putin will not give up the plan to destroy Ukraine. There are no signs that he has changed his goal: the intention to kill every Ukrainian.
