From the January peaks, Brent oil has fallen from $ 83 to $ 64 per barrel, rolling back to the levels of March 2021. And the average price for January-May for a barrel of this variety was $ 72.73 versus $ 84.4 for the same period a year earlier.
The average price of Russian Urals oil in March and April amounted to $ 59 and $ 54.8 per barrel, respectively. But Russia's budget for 2025 was compiled on the average annual price of $ 69.7 per barrel, the publication says, and the cutting price at which the excess oil revenues go to the National Welfare Fund (FNB), is $ 60. The fall of world oil prices has already forced the government’s economic block to update economic forecasts.
The main shock for the oil market was the trade war declared by Trump in early April. Huge tariffs for imports reduced expectations for the growth of the global economy: for example, the International Monetary Fund revised the forecast for 2025 from 3.3% to 2.8%.
The introduction of tariffs hits in terms of trade and economic activity, as a result of which leads to a decline in global demand for oil, the publication says. In March, the International Energy Agency (IEA) expected that according to the results of 2025, oil demand would grow by more than 1 million barrels per day, exceeding the result of 2024 (+940 thousand b/s). In April, after the outbreak of the trade war, the forecast was reduced immediately to 726 thousand b/s.
Another important factor that influenced oil quotes was an increase in oil production for OPEC+ countries in April and May. The April rise was almost three times more planned (411 thousand b/c instead of 130 thousand b/s), Mayi – at the level of the updated April.
OPEC+ increases the proposal for two reasons, explained to The Bell senior researcher at the Center for Strategic and International Research (CSIS) in Washington Cleiton Sigl. The first is that the cartel seeks to return part of the lost market share, first of all, taking it from American oil companies. Against the backdrop of low oil prices, shale oil production in the United States cannot significantly increase the offer.
The second reason: with his policy, OPEC+ is trying to appease Trump to build relations with his administration.
For Russia, reducing prices means that the government will try to rely on the growth of Neneftegas income, which consist of taxes, excise taxes and duties – they may be increased, according to the article.
Context
In early December 2022, the countries – members of the “Big Seven”, as well as Australia and the EU introduced the limitation of prices for Russian oil, setting the maximum level of $ 60 per barrel. From February 5, 2023, these countries introduced The price ceiling for Russian oil products: $ 100 – for diesel combustible and $ 45 for different lubricants.
After the introduction of the first sanctions, as Reuters noted, Russian oil industry workers had difficulties with the search for tankers for transportation. But the aggressor country of Russia, as the Western media wrote, was looking for ways to circumvent sanctions. In particular, she translated her oil tankers registered in Liberia and Marshall Islands, under the flag of Gabon (before that, the USA, the EU and the UK The island of liability for violation of the sanctions regime warned Liberia and the Marshalls of the island)and also secretly overloaded oil from suction tankers to other vessels.
On May 19, 2025, the European Commissioner for Economics Valdis Dombrovskis said that the EU this week will offer G7 to reduce the maximum price for Russian oil to $ 50 per barrel As part of a new package of sanctions against Russia.
On May 21, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrei Sibiga said that the country calls for increasing economic pressure on Russia, in particular due to radical Reducing the maximum price of Russian oil to $ 30 per barrel.
