American expert in Security: Russia is a foci gas station. Where Putin's strategic weakness is hidden

Security expert and formerly an official in the US Army, David H. Carstens spoke in an exclusive interview for “Adevărul” about the peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, about how Russia and Vladimir Putin's vulnerabilities can be defeated.

David H. Carstens had an impressive career in the US Army Photo Personal Archive

Between 2018-2023, David H. Carstens worked in the US Embassy in Bucharest as a civilian civilian, where he was the head of the military connection office.

Between 1988–2018, he worked in the United States Army. He obtained the rank of colonel and held management positions with a high degree of responsibility in the 30 years of his career. Before withdrawing from the active military service, he led the protection efforts for the US Army Europe, as director of the Department of Anti-Terrorism and Emergency Management. An important moment in his career was between 2012–2014, when he was the commander of the US Army garrison in Wiesbaden, Germany: a military community of 20,000 people and the headquarters of the US Land Forces Command in Europe. He also worked in CIA and NSA.

David H. Carstens is the founder and general manager of Carstens Consulting Global Inc., an American company specialized in planning and implementing solutions for market development, risk assessment, business intelligence and assets protection.

The reputed American expert lives in Romania, is married to a Romanian and will apply to obtain Romanian citizenship.

David H. Carstens has received numerous distinctions throughout his military career and a government civil servant, including the United States Defense Medal, the US (twice) Army Merit Legion (twice), the Bronze Star, the Honor Cross of the German Army in Romania and, recently,

Do the truth expect the US and Europe to impose stronger sanctions to Russia if Moscow does not sign the fire?

David H. Carstens: Well, yes, although there are some discussions on how much effect the sanctions had. Indeed, what I hope happens is to start targeting the allies of the Russians with sanctions. Here is the real lever. The sanctions had an impact. But do not forget, no one knows how to suffer better than Russia. After three years of war, Russia's GDP is about 10-12% under the trends before invasion. And when you combine the inflation rate with Russia's domestic interest rates, which are about 20%, as well as all other factors, losing the foreign exchange, growing bankruptcy in internal enterprises, lowering prices at real estate, increasing difficulties in interbank transactions, Russia's economy seems extremely weak. The problem is that Russia is still getting money through the back door, and the back door is Asia. Honestly, China produces much of what Russia needs and can buy much of what Russia sells. Thus, China actually stopped the bleeding that the sanctions were imposed to cause. Kazakhstan is an example. Kazakhstan delivers Russia's electronic equipment worth hundreds of millions of dollars.

What are the chances of a real peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia in the next period?

I think extremely low. Russia believes that it negotiates from a position of force. And this is strange because Russia has had some amazing losses in the last four months. The Ministry of Defense in the United Kingdom of the Great Britain has estimated 160,000 victims from Russia in the first four months of 2025. This would put Russia about to have the highest victims this year than in any other year since the beginning of the war. But Russia continues to insist. Putin feels no real pressure to come to the negotiation table. I just saw that. And, honestly, I think Putin feels encouraged by the lack of US long -term commitment to Ukraine. And what they see are some cracks in the perspective of the European Union regarding Ukraine.

Is NATO accession an impossible mission for Ukraine?

Well, I don't think it's impossible, but I think it's question. But I see no real reason why Ukraine could not be granted NATO security guarantees. Apart from the fact that Russia does not want Ukraine to be in NATO and probably creating what Russia would see as a buffer area, an unmixed area, an area of ​​dispute, something like Ossetia, Abhasia and Georgia, the truth is that NATO members must support a new member, 100%. And I simply do not see countries like Turkey and Hungary coming and saying that I agree with Ukraine's entry into NATO.

How can Russia be defeated?

First, NATO must remain united. Together we are stronger. And I strongly believe that NATO is the greatest military alliance in the history of mankind. He has kept us safe since the end of World War II. It can be said that NATO led to the end of the Cold War and to the disappearance of the Soviet Union. NATO has its challenges. However, NATO has maintained peace. They did this for decades. So I truly believe in the power of NATO and its ability to change the course of this war. But we have to stay together. We are stronger together. Therefore, the comments of any president or future president against NATO and – well, against NATO and against the support given to Ukraine, I think it diminishes the power of the Alliance and make it a little stronger. He gets it. NATO versus Russia is three to one or greater, much larger, in terms of superiority. We need to sanction Russia's allies. We must raise sanctions on those countries that continue to feed the Russian economy.

EVladimir a little invincible? Does he have a heel of Achilles?

No one is invincible, is it? And I think that if we look at 2025, which could be the most expensive year of the War for Russia in terms of losses, troops are not an unlimited resource. So this is, to say, the number one risk for Putin. The number two as a risk is that Russia's economy is very fragile. If there is a kind of economic shock, such as a massive decrease in fuel prices or losing a strategic commercial partner, I think the system could be destabilized. The third risk or threat to Putin is that Putin depends on this restricted circle. His security services, FSB, his oligarchs, some loyal military commanders. If there are continuous war failures, if you exist, you know, the continuous use of the soldiers, you know, in the mass, hurrying the Ukrainian defense, creating these events with many victims, the lack of confidence will increase, and this could fracture the inner circle. And, to be honest, I have to look for in history the threat number four to Putin. I simply do not think Putin has read history when it comes to exaggerations. So Russia is incredibly extended in Ukraine. And exactly this type of exceeding the limits finally defeated Hitler in the conquest of Europe. So, I think Putin has fallen into the same deadlock, he gets stuck in a conflict he cannot support, and this is part of Achilles' heel.

“Romania must learn to exploit the huge economic potential it has”

How do you see Russia's economic prospects in the medium term?

Well this is the easiest question. Weak. Russia's GDP is the size of Italy. Russia is like a cheap gas station with nuclear weapons. They do not have a diversified economy. Are fuel dependents. And yes, I think they are, I think if I do not decide to become part of the rest of the free world when it comes to trade, if I do not stop this war and do not allow Western nations to open the economy, I think their prospects are extremely bad.