Donald Trump and his great puzzle. “It's like Mikhail Gorbachev”
Donald Trump for years claimed that too strong dollar weakened the American economy because it reduced exports and at the same time increased imports. Therefore, the dollar should be weakened. Only that by introducing duties, Trump has launched a mechanism that, as to the essence, should lead to a completely opposite effect, i.e. appreciation (strengthening), not the dollar depreciation. The fact that this mechanism did not give such an effect (because the dollar loses, instead of gaining) is probably the result of other factors, including primarily a decrease in trust in the stability of the American capital market, and the prospects of the American economy. This does not change the fact that the logic in Trump's action is difficult to find in this one matter.
The puzzle gets even more complicated when looking at another long -preached Trump's thesis, i.e. the one with excessive debt of the United States.
In fact, the US is gigantically indebted, except that they have never had any problem with financing their debt, because the dollar remains the basic reserve currency of the world. A question that the administration does not have or rather has, but a few mutually exclusive answers is how to reconcile the weakening of the dollar (assuming that it is the goal) with maintaining its hegemony.
Bravado theses that the US will force the world to finance their debt in exchange for security guarantees, could theoretically be the answer, Only that also assumes that the dominance of the United States in the world is only a cost for the US, and not – as it is in fact – also a source of their strength.
There is not even clarity as basic as this is the purpose of weakening the dollar at all. Stephen Mirren, who is the head of the Economic Advisors of the White House, before he took his function in administration, exactly defined the purpose of the policy, claiming that a strong dollar weakens America, and what's more, adding that it also weakens the US hegemonic position of the dollar as a reserve currency. The thing is that for a change, the treasury secretary Scott Bessent He says something exactly opposite and makes it clear that the administration wants to maintain a strong dollar.
Donald Trump and contradictory reasons for imposing high duties
For a penny, there is also no consistency in (otherwise without any logical base and, as everything indicates, calculated in a completely voluntary way) by Trump, and then suspended and hung. For if the purpose of the duties is to punish users, just as China really does, patronist practices, why do the USA put duties on countries that never did anything like that?
There is also no shadow of logic if you look at the customs as a tool for practicing the policy of stopping China. If the purpose of the White House were to stop Beijing, it is impossible to logically explain the imposition of duties to the state of Southeast Asia, which are an increase in Chinese power at risk.
Donald Trump
Trump's goals declared by Trump are completely contradictory – on the one hand, the reduction of customs in the event of commercial agreements and the desire to bring jobs to the USA. If this happens the first, the latter will not happen.
It is also difficult to understand how Trump could believe that he would be able to throw China on his knees with duties, since only 15 percent Chinese exports go to the United States (with a significant share of electronic goods, which have already been suspended).
In a thicket of contradictory signals, mutually exclusive decisions, lack of logic and chaos, the market to administration reacts with the simultaneous weakening of both the value of shares and the profitability of American bonds. This is an alarm signal. Until now, it was in principle that whenever the shares were falling, the bond market grew (and when the shares were growing, the bonds lost).
The situation in which they lose and shares on the American stock exchange and bonds prove that investors lose confidence, but not in action or bonds, but to the dollar and the United States.
Of course, the media are full of analyzes, which may show that perhaps Trump's goal is to complete the reconstruction of the world market architecture (bringing to the mythical so-called MAR-A-LAGO agreement), or building a free trade zone with Europe. The problem is that nobody really knows if it is in fact or maybe it is exactly the other way around.
Trump like Gorbachev – he has intuition, but there is no plan
Mikhail Gorbachev
Perhaps, therefore, the only true answer to the question what plan Donald Trump has, provides a meme that appeared on the internet a few weeks ago, and which he juxtaposed in one picture of Donald Trump and Mikhail Gorbachev.
The signature contains the text: “Two people who started reforming the system they did not understand.”
The above does not mean, of course, that the United States will share the fate of the USSR, because unlike the Soviets, they remain the strongest and, what is important, the most innovative economy in the world. This does not change the fact that the scenario cannot be ruled out in which Donald Trump, like Gorbachev once, has – sometimes – otherwise correct – intuitions, but there is no plan.
Better not to do anything than to make a mistake
If this is the case, Trump's actions would be best described by the BBC comedy series entitled “Yes, Mr. Prime Minister”. In this series, he appeared, later quoted many times in the House of Municipalities, two much from their political superiors of smarter, old, experienced officials. When talking about the principles of politicians, they state that they act according to the following logic: “All dogs have four legs – my cat has four legs – so he is a dog”, which in translation into the language of politics results in action according to the principle: “something needs to be done – this is something – so let's do it.”
The conversation ends with the statement that in politics making a mistake is always worse than not doing nothing.
Polish policy, whose essence is in a sense a dispute between politicians reflexively preferred to do anything with politicians, who usually wandering completely in the blindfold, they want to do “something” over and over again, temporarily has a pendulum leaning in this first direction.
In a situation where the rate for Poland is, given the US's importance for our security, so huge, and the predictability of the US president and its emotional stability are so doubtful, maybe this is an optimal solution.
Although bitterly from the perspective of anyone who dreams of ambitious politics, so that it does not sound, perhaps the best idea for Trump is to wait until he falls on the market in the clash and not play either at him or against him.
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