ISW: The Kremlin does not prepare the Russian society for peace. Moscow relies on a long war

According to a recent analysis published by the Institute for War Study (ISW), the Kremlin does not sign that he would be willing to conclude a peace agreement or to stop the hostilities in Ukraine. On the contrary, the messages that support the idea of ​​a long -term conflict are multiplied in the Russian public space, until all the objectives declared by the Putin regime are achieved.

Vladimir Putin does not want to stop the war in Ukraine/Photo: Reuters

“The Kremlin did not prepare the public opinion in any way for the possibility of a peace agreement“, It is shown in the ISW report. In Russia, the army and civil society are increasingly mobilized around the narrative that the war should be continued until Ukraine will give up the requirements imposed by Moscow.

This rhetoric, fueled by officials and controlled press, is a component of the strategy by which the Putin regime legitimizes its aggression as an act of defense of the Russian state, presenting military objectives as “essential for national survival”.

Demonstrative, but devoid of real content, the Kremlin regime shows its military force around the 19 May telephone call between Vladimir Putin and former US president Donald Trump.

On May 18, a Kremlin affiliated journalist published sequences from a recent interview with Putin, in which the leader from Moscow claims that the Russian army has sufficient force to take the war “to a logical, favorable outcome.” In the same material, Putin reiterated the old propagandistic justifications: “eliminating the deep causes of the conflict” and “protecting the Russian population in Ukraine”.

The images are part of an anniversary documentary entitled “Russia. Kremlin. Putin. 25 years”, officially launched in early May, but which has been intensely redistributed only now, a sign that the Russian authorities are trying to send a message of force to both the internal public and to the West.

A fragile economy, huge human losses and forced optimism

ISW points out that despite Kremlin's trusted statements, the reality on the ground is far from supporting this rhetoric. The Russian armed forces undergo considerable losses, considered unsustainable in the medium and long term, while the Russian economy is facing massive pressures: excessive military expenses, increasing inflation, labor deficit and accelerated erosion of sovereign reserves.

“Continuing the conflict at this rate could force the Kremlin to make difficult decisions starting with 2026 or 2027”, warns American experts.

Despite the reality on the front, Putin bets on the total capture of the four Ukrainian regions claimed by Moscow until the end of this year. According to Bloomberg, the Russian leader is convinced that he holds the military initiative and that he should not rush the conclusion of a peace agreement. This perception makes him less willing to provide concessions in discussions with Donald Trump.

Europe looks with concern a possible “forced agreement”

The fears of European officials are increasingly visible: according to Bloomberg, there are real concerns that Trump, in the event of his return to power, could try to impose Ukraine, just to mark a “quick resolution” of the conflict. While Washington is trying to get a fire cessation, the Kremlin gives no availability for authentic negotiations.

“The general sensation is that American diplomatic efforts reach a criticalnotes the quoted source.

Interlocutors close to Kremlin confirmed that, despite the diplomatic statements, Vladimir Putin is prepared for a war of wear, with clear strategic stakes. Moreover, it seems convinced that Russia can cope with new waves of economic sanctions imposed by the US.

The difference in perception between Moscow and the West is increasing. Western evaluations, as well as those of sources inside the Russian army, suggest that Russia no longer has the logistical and technical capacity to obtain Putin's “total victory”.

One of the factors that limit the Russian offensive is, according to an official of the Russian Defense Ministry, the devastating impact of Ukrainian drones, which transform each major offensive into an expensive, risky and often inefficient operation.