Video interview “Nicușor Dan seems determined to address exclusively to the electorate who voted with him. I do not know if it is the best approach”

“Both candidates need the electorates of traditional parties,” explains, in an interview, Sorin Conqueri, an expert in political communication, philosopher and publicist. He analyzes, for the public Hotnews, the way George Simion and Nicușor Dan are trying to get votes from outside his own electoral basin.

Sorin Conqueri believes that George Simion has included topics such as attachment to European values, NATO or the Strategic Partnership with the US to seem less dangerous for those who were not determined whether or not to vote on his counter -candidate. “He wants to demobilize the opposite electorate,” says Conqueri.

On the other hand, Nicuşor Dan speaks exclusively to his electorate, made up of “realized people”, but his campaign topics do not have a national major, but remain at the level of a mayor's campaign. “Really, I do not know if it is prepared for the position of president,” says Sorin Conqueri.

• Sorin Conqueri is an expert in political communication and a harsh commentator of daily political realities. It is Junior Research Fellow of Centro per l'orro-Oriental Europe, the Balkan University, Italy and a founding member of the Romanian Political Science Society.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=synjxco_qgy

“They need the electorates of traditional parties”

HotNews.ro: Do ​​you think you can change the views of the voters before the Sunday vote?
Sorin Conqueri: In any case, it is possible that a person who voted with Antonescu, Ponta or Lasconi to focus on Nicușor Dan. Probably George Simion's electorate is quite firm in the decision he made, he is already determined with whom he goes to vote. But there are other electorates that can be convinced to vote with Nicușor Dan.

– So it all consists of the ability of each of the two candidates to attract the electorate from the traditional parties, given that their rhetoric is the fact that they are antisystem?

– This is irony, one of the irony of this spring elections. They need the electorates of traditional parties. How will they do? It depends on each one. Instead of Nicușor Dan, I would be willing to accept and open a discussion about poverty and social inequalities. If George Simion only convinces his own electorate, his maximum is 4 million votes.

In fact, gold had 3 million votes in parliament. These 3 million were clear to George Simion and collected another 1,000,000 votes from different electorates: little from PNL, little from PSD, even from USR and so on. However, his hard electorate is 3 million. He can only grow if he manages to address other electorates and convince them to vote with him.

George Simion's “mainstream” message

– How well do the two candidates succeed in addressing those outside their electorate?
– For now, it seems to me that none of them manages to do that at all. So far, Nicușor Dan seems determined to address exclusively to the electorate who voted with him. He even comforted him and said he was the electorate of the people made and asked for these people to come out and convince others. So it seems to be, from his point of view, a debate between realized and unrealized. I don't know if it's the best approach.

George Simion does two things. On the one hand, it is addressed to his electorate, with the traditional messages: the second round, back, I referendum and so on. But it is also addressed to the electorate Nicușor Dan and the other parties, with a very mainstream message: that it supports Romania's belonging to the European Union, that they support Romania's belonging to NATO and the strategic partnership with the US.

Messages that obviously do not want to convince “Nicușorist” electorate to vote with him, but he wants to show this electorate and our external allies that he is not a danger. As presented, this type of speech is made to demobilize the opposite electorate. Because, if you do not perceive it as a danger, you think you can stay home, that if you become president, it is not the biggest misfortune in the world. But none of them addresses other electorates than their own, to get votes from them.

About the elections of 2024: “The only one who did not upset that he was fraudulent was Simion”

– Is George Simion the candidate who reinvented? Is it more moderate or remains the same to parade in all kinds of nervous scenes?
– I think it's both at the same time. This is the hardest to understand it. It looks like a very fluid person, capable of resting on different types of electorate wishes to reach their goal. From this perspective, we could call it opportunist, but not a pejorative meaning. It is good to be an opportunistic, to be able to fold yourself on the expectations of others if you are a politician.

It is very difficult for me to talk about George Simion, because it's very hard to catch. We do not know exactly who he is and what he is willing to do. Unfortunately, if the president will become, then we will see, because then he will have all the necessary levers to do what he wants to do. Now, from his speeches, whether they are addressed to his camp or the Western camp, we can not draw any conclusion.

He is a character. Think of lost the previous first round, beaten by Georgescu, although he won the previous first tour through electoral fraud. The only one who was not upset that he was fraudulent was Simion! It's a completely abnormal reaction. He candidate honestly, followed all the rules, like his other counter -candidates, except Georgescu. Georgescu cheated on the whole line. He did not upset that he lost, being fooled, on the contrary, he took the winner in his arms. That doesn't suggest anything good.

Two in hand to stay in Georgescu, Georgescu was demonstrated to be at least an agent of influence of Russia. It does not matter that I say this, or that the Romanian services or that different journalistic investigations say this. The Russians themselves said this through the statement of the Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service! So, we can no longer challenge as long as the Russians and have assumed Georgescu as such. However, when Georgescu was explicitly assumed by the Russians, and you, George Simion, you say you are a Romanian patriot and, simultaneously, promote an agent of Russia, something is not linked.

“The Romanian society from Ceausescu has been fundamentally anti-Russian. It was denying to take a favorable position of Russia”

– Can we call Călin Georgescu an agent of Russia or is it just a character whose ideas serve Russia?

– This distinction is irrelevant. In both situations, he is an influence agent of Russia in Romania. As a proof that the least predictable thing that happened after the November canceled tour is the normalization of the pro-Russian discourse in the Romanian society. The Romanian society from Ceausescu has been, so in communism and in democracy, has been fundamentally anti-Russian. It was to take a favorable position to Russia and not to become instantly a non-grated person, at the outskirts of society.

After the canceled tour of November, the pro-Russian speech became mainstream, something to do in Romania. An amazing mutation took place at the society level and Simion benefits from this mutation. And then his patriotism can be legitimately discussed: how are you patriot, if you defile with a filius? He is willing to put on a prime minister an agent of Russia, such as this patriotism?

“It will not matter the real danger that if George Simion becomes president, Russia agents can obtain key functions in the Romanian state.”

– How much do you think this theme for the general public is important? A research by the sociologist Barbu Mateescu shows that, in fact, people are rather concerned about the operating problems of the Romanian state, from poverty to the poor functioning of the public administration. Less the theme of Russian influence …
– Noting with amazing this change of mentality at the level of the Romanian society, it will not be true, unfortunately, the idea that Simion promotes an agent of Russia.

It will not matter the real danger that if George Simion becomes president, Russian agents can obtain key functions in the Romanian state by significantly vulnerabilifying the state. Again, it is a theme that will undoubtedly not make most Romanians vote with Simion. But I also have the right to say what are my concerns about Simion.

– What don't you like in Nicușor Dan?
-I really do not know if Nicușor Dan is prepared for the position of president. Certainly he demonstrated that he is prepared for the position of mayor. But sometimes you wonder if the president's hat is not too big for him, because he does not always seem at the height of this function he wants.

His campaign in the first round had only one idea: I took the disastrous financial Bucharest and brought it to the waterline. Even Bucharest now has a much better rating than Romania, as a country. So you trust in Bucharest that I am good and vote for me. Very little and as a kind of campaign of mayor of Romania, not as President of Romania.

“Nothing could do predictable that Zelenski will be the super-president of Ukraine if you looked only in his CV.”

-Nicușor Dan says that in order to discern between the two candidates, people should look in their past, at the achievements they had …
– This argument is for Bulă, because we, in our bubble, have this fetish with the achievements. If the CV shows that you are a professional, yes, you are a professional! However, nothing could do predictable that Zelenski will be the super-president of Ukraine if you only looked at his CV. The job of politician is a distinct job! In vain you were a good manager, mayor or teacher, this is not a guarantee that you will be a good politician or a good president. There are two completely different things.

-What are the key themes in the Romanian society that you have heard in the speech of Nicușor Dan?
– Probably only one, tested including the result of the vote. It was demonstrated by the vote from the first round that most Romanians really want a change. And Nicușor Dan presented as a representative of change. But they both recognize themselves as candidates for change. There were also pictures, and stories from 2012, when Nicușor and Simion were together, and Simion was campaigning at the town hall. So they also have a partial part -common activism history.

– Can Nicuşor Dan get more than 4 million votes?
– will capitalize more when he will address other electorates than his own electorate. When it will be addressed to the PSD electorate and the PNL electorate, not only to the USR electorate and the Bucharest people who voted him mayor. It can continue to present the difference between the two types of change, but it could be more attentive to the wishes of the electorates of traditional parties.

He still presents himself as a right -wing man, when he, in reality, is a centrist. And from a centrist position you can address both branches, and to the right, and to the left.

Pro Nicușor Dan or Anti Simion votes?

-Do you think the extra votes they would get will be Pro Nicușor Dan or will they be Anti George Simion votes?

– A mix between them. I could not say the proportion, but with certainty it will also capitalize on anti-syion votes. People will say, “Sir, Nicușor annoys me, I would not want to vote, but I am afraid.” As it was, let's say, the vote in favor of Lasconi, when many people were completely disappointed with her performance, but had no other option.

– What happens, after the vote, with the supporters of the two?
– I think, after the vote, both camps will be peaceful: they will not protest, they will not challenge. It would be extraordinarily good to be able to dialogue. Although I doubt it. The rupture seems too deep to be solved in the near future.

But I think it is one of the main tasks of the next president, whatever it is, to start creating a dialogue between the two big camps and to rebuild a kind of social contract, which at the moment seems broken.