The end of the war will change a lot in the Polish economy. Half a million employees from Ukraine less
“The scale of system challenges in the period after the end of hostilities may surprise the principals. Will Ukrainians move back to their homeland to rebuild the country? Forecasting after the country is stubborn today, it can be estimated that it can be up to half a million people. If they really go, it can create pressure on the Polish labor market, especially in low -value industries, such as logistics or logistics, such as logistics or logistics Production ” – it was written.
Gremi analysts expect highly qualified entrepreneurs (IT sector, engineering) will most likely remain in Poland using access to the EU market.
– In my opinion Half of entrepreneurs will remain in Polandusing the dual taxation system. Those who come back will transfer technology through the Joint Ventures. I do not predict mass liquidation of economic activity as a result of exacerbation of visa policy – he said, quoted in the report Evgeniu Kirichenko, president of Gremi Personal.
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According to him, the transitional period must include a guarantee of legal stability for existing companies.
More obligations for other employees
As the Polish Economic Institute reported on Thursday, macroeconomic data shows that in the years 2021-2023 the average contribution of immigrants' work into the annual increase in Polish GDP was 0.5 points. percent, which is about 18 percent all height. Economists indicate that research shows that The lack of foreigners on the labor market would be associated with an extension of working time for other employees. Every third surveyed company has such plans in the event of peace in Ukraine. Only 13 percent companies believe that he would manage in such a situation, hiring a larger number of Poles. Until every fifth company reports that the trip of foreigners after the conclusion of the room will be a problem for them – said Pie.
Leaving the Polish labor market by such a large number of employees would certainly have an impact on remuneration. Lower supply of employees means the need for increases and a sharper fight for an employee. This would lead either to reduce companies' profits or to increase the prices of their products and services, and would eventually affect inflation. At the same time, the trip of such a large group of people from the country must be associated with a decrease in demand for apartments, and thus greater problems with the sale of apartments and a decrease in their market prices. Rental prices would probably also fall.
“The end of the war in Ukraine will create not only opportunities, but also serious challenges for the Polish economy. Ukrainian entrepreneurs, responsible for 9 percent of new economic activities, will face the choice between the continuation of the activity in Poland and the reconstruction of the country of origin” – the Gremi Personal report wrote.
