2025-05-08 17:40
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2025-05-08 17:40
The next reduction in interest rates will take place in July, the next will be in September and November – wrote ING Bank Śląski economists in Thursday's commentary. In their opinion, each reduction will be 25 points. base.
On Thursday, the president of the National Bank of Poland Adam Glapiński explained the reasons why the Monetary Policy Council reduced interest rates on Wednesday. The MPC reduced all NBP feet by 50 points. base (i.e. 0.5 percentage points).
The economists of ING Bank Śląski Adam Antoniak and Mateusz Sutowicz drew attention to Glapiński's statement, who called Wednesday's reduction of adaptation and emphasized that it does not mean the start of a cycle of interest rates.
“Subsequent decisions of the MPC will (…) take into account the incoming data and forecasts. The chairman of the Council stated that a possible reduction in the feet at the next meeting in June is doubtful. He added that the declarations of MPP members indicate that subsequent decisions may occur during the July inflational projection, or only in autumn. According to Glapiński, subsequent reductions will mean rather a transition in a cycle and movements in a 25pb scale” – representatives of ING BSK wrote in the commentary.
They noticed that the President of the NBP announced that at the June meeting the Council would discuss, among others About the amount of compulsory reserve rate (banks are required to deposit some funds from deposits at the central bank). Another topic is also to be adapted to the width of the corridor of interest rates, i.e. – as the economists of ING BSK explained – the deviation of the deposit and lombard rate from the reference rate.
“We expect Pause in June and the MPC transition to a series of interest rate reductions in movements by 25pb. In our opinion, the next rate reduction will take place in July, and the next in September and November. As a result, at the end of 2025, the reference rate should be 4.50 percent in 2026. End of next year. (PAP)
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