Fuel prices are lowest since the outbreak of war in Ukraine. PB95 and he could cost less than PLN 5/l

The beginning of May brought further drops in fuel prices at Polish stations. Gasoline and diesel were refueled at the lowest average prices since February 2022. The average retail price of autogas for the first time since October was below PLN 3/l.

In the first week of May, the average retail price of PB95 gas was 5.80 PLN/l And it was 6 gr/l lower than a week earlier – according to BM Reflex data. Diesel oil was tanked on average after 5.84 PLN/l, So 7 groszy per liter cheaper than a week ago. In both cases were the lowest average retail prices from February 2022. In addition, autogas has made 6 gr/li an average of PLN 2.98/l. This is the first LPG price after October 2024 with two in front.

It was the fifth week in a row of a decrease in average retail prices of fuels in Poland. If you skip a small upward correction from the beginning of April, These prices at the distributors are falling continuously from the end of January. Thanks to this, we refuel much cheaper than a year ago. The average retail price of PB95 is already 87 gr/l lower than 12 months ago, while diesel at that time got cheaper at 84 gr/l. Only autogas prices remain at 14 gr/l higher than a year ago.

It is not the kindness of the kernels that stand behind lower prices

We owe lower prices at distributors to two factors. The first is a decrease in oil prices resulting from the weakness of fuel demand and an increase in extraction in OPEC countries. At the beginning of May, Brent oil cost even less than 60 USD per barrel (on Friday it was USD 63.78). These are one of the lowest records of this raw material since February 2021. As a result, the prices of ready gasoline on the New York Stock Exchange decreased to around two dollars per gallon. In turn, diesel oil on the London ICE Stock Exchange was valued at 605 USD/T, which is 13% lower than at the beginning of 2025.

It is true that in the autumn of 2024 the stock market prices of gasoline were even lower (even below USD 2), but then the dollar was much more expensive. Currently, the American currency is valued at approx. PLN 3.76 against PLN 4.00-4.20 in October and November. It is the depreciation of the dollar relative to the euro and the strengthening of the zloty is the second factor to which we owe lower prices at distributors.

The decrease in global fuel prices at a lower USD/PLN exchange rate translates into reductions in price lists in Polish refineries. On May 9, Orlen offered Eurosuper95 gasoline 4,422 PLN/m3, which after adding 23% VAT translated into 5.44 PLN/l. That is, 36 gr/l below the average retail price and about 7gr/l cheaper than a week earlier. Maintaining this situation in the coming days should result in a further drop in prices at distributors.

On the other hand, diesel in the Friday price list of Płock refinery was offered 4438 PLN/m3, i.e. 5.46 PLN/l gross (i.e. after ointment). It is 10 gr/l cheaper than a week and 38 gr/l below the average retail price.

Let's add that fuels could be much cheaper were it not for the taxes imposed by the authorities. From each liter of gasoline purchased or diesel, over 40% goes into the hands of the state. For example, if the VAT rate was still 8%, gasoline and diesel could cost about PLN 5.00/l. In addition, the rulers could bear the “emission fee” introduced by their predecessors, which would reduce gross prices by another 10 gr/l. So even below PLN 5/l.

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