The first case actually reflected the rapid revival of the flow of goods after locking through traditional channels, not structural problems. When everyone bought their first electric bikes and equipped their home gardens with new garden furniture, ports (and economy, to a greater or lesser extent) returned to normal.
If the US president softens his customs war against China or if there are ways to “wash” Chinese exports to the US through third countries, the opposite situation may occur. Only when Trump is determined to continue to tighten protectionism to stop importing, trade and economy will not rebuild.
In a medium -term perspective, the situation will look quite boring, regardless of what he does.
Empty store shelves and American children suffering from doll rationing according to the new Puritan approach of Trump will look terrible. And small companies that will fall due to a lack of delivery from China can lead to recession. Trump claims that he has nothing against such a situation, but it is unlikely.
Ryan Petersen from the Flexport logistics company, which has become a voice of the transport industry, as well as during congestion after Covid-19 pandemic They are for his smaller customers “an event tailored to the extinction of dinosaurs”.
However, the experience of recent years shows that both international trade and the United States economy are able to deal with large shocks without any damage.
EPA / Francis Chung / Pool / PAP
US President Donald Trump in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, USA, May 6, 2025.
Marc Levinson, an economist, historian and author of the book “The Box”, dedicated to the history of transport containers, claims that the shipping industry is able to anetleize the Chinese-American shock, even if it leads to a decrease in general demand, and not only to reorganize trade routes. Ironically, Levinson notes, the profits of the sailing industry increased thanks to the Huti Red Sea blockade, which caused container containers to bypass the southern end of Africa.
The shock caused by Covid, which hit the trust of households and economic growth, caused a global recession in 2020 and a sharp decline in world trade in goods and services. However, thanks to fiscal support and alleviating the restrictions related to lockdown, economic growth has quickly rebuilt.
Compared to other developed economies, especially European ones, the United States tends to leave the recession without major losses – that is, lasting effects on production and employment resulting from cyclical declines. The unemployment rate in the United States increased rapidly to almost 15 percent. In the spring of 2020, but at the end of 2021 it fell below 4 percent.
Continuation of the material under the video
It is not even about whether the United States and the commercial system are able to withstand the shock caused by Trump's introduction 10 % duties on almost all goods imported from other countries, and even much higher duties on goods from China. In time probably yes. As we saw during the trade war in the first term of President Trump – and as are currently preparing for this economy referred to by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as “connectors” – Chinese export still goes to the United States thanks to changes in marking or real transfer of production with a value added to third countries.
The United States is trying to limit such a circumventing regulations, But this is a huge market that has a strong motivation to find a way to circumvent duties. Meanwhile, high -scale value chains and susceptible to irreversible damage caused by shocks, in particular the automotive industry, are now quite well protected by exclusion.
The matter is whether Trump is really determined to block imports from all sources. Given their impact on trade, Trump's customs are compared to Great Britain's decision to leave the EU for a reason. The Great Britain's government chose the hard form of Brexit, which for an indefinite period put in an adverse situation of exporters (and importers) and weakened long -term productivity, probably by 4 percent.
In the case of Trump, it would be an equivalent to not only applying stable duties and leaving them unchanged, but constant attempts to patch holes and limit general imports in a way that would still cause damage not only existing, but also new trading models.
Nobody knows what position Trump will take, although it is becoming more and more obvious that many large trading partners of the USA – China, Japan, EU – It was impossible to foreseen the American president's bluffwho tried to force them to make concessions quickly. Considering that Trump is used to retreat in the face of resistance, this is the proper development of the situation. In any case, although American companies exposed to trade with China are waiting for painful changes in the coming months, serious permanent damage can only occur then, When Trump accepts the policy “at all costs” to limit all imports.
I’m Ashley Davis as an editor, I’m committed to upholding the highest standards of integrity and accuracy in every piece we publish. My work is driven by curiosity, a passion for truth, and a belief that journalism plays a crucial role in shaping public discourse. I strive to tell stories that not only inform but also inspire action and conversation.
