The real stake of the elections in Bucharest: calculations, risks and echoes up to the Victoria Palace or Cotroceni
While the leaderships of some parties have made their calculations, ensuring that they will not settle too much as a result of an electoral failure, others go into the race for the Capital City Hall with risks. However, the electoral cost can reach the Victoria Palace or Cotroceni, where the president Nicușor Dan seems to have an interest in the victory of a candidate.
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The political battle will be tough for PSD, PNL and USR, the parties that are currently together in the governing coalition, says political scientist Cristian Pârvulescu. But some have more to lose than others: “PNL and PSD, if they don't have victories, they will have small problems. PNL bigger, because there is already a power structure there that is largely affected by the Government's unpopularity. At PSD we now understand why they postponed the Congress. Because if Baluță wins, then it is the credit of the new leadership. If it loses, it will be the old leadership's”.
But the PNL candidate will have a serious problem. “She will be asked the question, as in the first round of the presidential elections, of the useful vote. I remind you that the useful vote made General Ciucă lose important votes that went in favor of the best placed candidate, Lasconi. This does not mean that Mr. Ciucă retired, just as Mr. Ciucu will not retire either. But I think a similar strategy will take place”Cristian Pârvulescu also points out.
The cost for the president Nicușor Dan
In the case of USR, the calculations are completely different. The cost will be settled by the president Nicușor Dan, who recently attended the launch of the USR candidate, Cătălin Drula, thus designating him as his successor.
“At this moment, the best-placed candidate is Cătălin Drula. And that's because President Dan designated him, with all the risks that his presence at the launch entailed, as his successor. Anyway, President Dan had an electorate. It doesn't mean that that electorate will follow him entirely.” Cristian Pârvulescu also explains.
The motivations of the head of state may not be related to the legacy left at the Capital City Hall. “I think that the president wants a victory of the USR candidate to create the possibility of building a presidential party“, is the opinion of the political scientist.
Benefits for the Prime Minister and the President
“For the liberals, if Mr. Ciucu were to become mayor, it would strengthen Bolojan's power. And here is a very important stake for the liberals”, explains political analyst Ion M. Ioniță, editor-in-chief of Historia. Otherwise, the prime minister “he would have contested because there is a wing in the PNL that is just waiting for Ilie Bolojan to make a mistake in order to remove him from the leadership of the PNL”.
The situation is even more special in the case of USR. “The candidate of the USR, Cătălin Drula, is supported by the president Nicușor Dan, precisely so that he has a political ally validated by the votes of the citizens of Bucharest, let's say. So it would be in favor of Nicușor Dan, if the USR candidate wins.
Here we have the Nicușor Dan-Drula relationship and by no means the Fritz-Drula relationship. So here comes the question of a loss for the president. In case of failure, the failure will fall on the president because the president went to launch Drula's candidacy. If the president still goes and is invited to other parties, we saw that at the PSD, at the Congress, he is not invited, surely he could dissipate this negative influence if the candidate he supported by attending the launch loses. So we also have a special situation at USR because we are not talking about the leadership of the party, but about the president Nicușor Dan”also shows Ion M Ioniță.
GOLD, no political costs
In the case of the party led by George Simion, who announced his support for Anca Alexandrescu, the calculations are less complicated for the party. George Simion, who is now heading to a Congress for reconfirmation as party president, does not lose anything and remains intact, because he does not get involved, explains political scientist Cristian Pârvulescu.
The electoral cost will be settled entirely by the independent candidate Anca Alexandrescu: “AUR supports her, but a failure of Mrs. Alexandrescu is a failure of an independent candidate, a success is the success of AUR.”
Călin Georgescu's interest
We must not lose sight of the interest of the former presidential candidate Călin Georgescu in the calculation of the elections on December 7, which “does not support a candidate and considers the elections illegitimate”, the political scientist emphasizes.
“It means that the assessment made by the leaders of the extreme right is that the turnout will be reduced. Călin Georgescu wants to claim the reduced turnout as a result of his boycott, and Simion hopes that the reduced turnout, if it does not lead to the mobilization of the far-right electorate, will at least delegitimize the upcoming elections”. Cristian Pârvulescu also points out.
