A year after peace in Ukraine, Russia will attack NATO? The Dutch intelligence warns

Russia can be ready for armed conflict with NATO within a year of the end of the war with Ukraine – says the head of Dutch military intelligence, MIVD Peter Reesink, quoted on Thursday by Politico.

According to Reesink, this scenario may happen if the arms production in Russia persists at the current level and the Kremlin will retain their appetite for military activities. “The Netherlands, like the rest of NATO, is in a state of the highest readiness to ensure that we will be prepared (for a military confrontation with Russia),” Reesink told the portal.

Russia currently produces much more artillery than it needs for war with Ukraine, supplementing exhausted supplies and transferring new artillery units to the borders of the Baltic States and Finland – noted Reesink. “For us it is a signal that they are building potential,” he said. At the same time, he emphasized that his intelligence services do not have clear information that Vladimir Putin is planning military activities against the North Atlantic Alliance.

Earlier, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte called on NATO members to prepare for a possible war with Russia for “four to five years”, and the head of German intelligence Bruno Kahl warned that Russia could attack NATO countries by 2030. He argued that Putin was seeking not only to expand Russia's influence in Europe, but also to pose the American military presence from the continent. In his opinion, Moscow's goal is not only to occupy Ukraine, but also to shape a new world order – noted the Moscow Times portal.

Although Putin focuses on the attention of most European interviews, the Old Continent cannot lose sight of a potential threat from China, “said Reesink. “China has a very complex, organized cybernetic system. And we are not able to fully understand what they are able to do. (…) I would say that this is a greater threat than Russia.”

In its annual report, published at the end of last month, MIVD emphasized the deepening geopolitical, economic and military connections between Russia and China – and the growing risk they create for Europe.

Dutch officers noticed that Russia intensifies hybrid attacks against European countries to weaken their societies, while American intelligence agencies revealed last year that the Chinese cybernetic group Salt Typhoon has infiltrated the main American telecommunications service providers for at least a year. “We saw something similar in Europe, although not at the same level as in the US (…) But what we can observe is only a limited part of the complex Chinese cybernetic system.”

According to the Stockholm International Institute of Peace Research (SIPRI), Russia's expenditure on defense is estimated at $ 149 billion in 2024, which means an increase of 38 percent. Compared to 2023 and twice the level of 2015. In addition to increasing the production, Moscow moves new artillery units towards the borders of NATO, including the Baltic countries and Finland. “It is a signal for us that they are building potential.” (PAP)

Os/ Mal/