PKO BP analysts predict that at the end of 2025 the NBP reference rate will be 4.75 percent. According to them, the reductions will occur in the summer, when inflation drops to 3.5 percent. and in autumn, when tariff electricity prices for households will be known.
The Monetary Policy Council (RPP) reduced the NBP interest rates at 50 points at the NBP meeting at the meeting. base. The reference rate dropped from 5.75 percent. up to 5.25 percent The previous level of interest rates was maintained since October 2023.
PKO Bank Polski experts emphasized that the reference rate has been at the lowest level since May 2022, and the decision was in line with market expectations. They pointed out that the reduction by 50 points. Basic is a non-standard movement, because since 2010 a reduction on a scale of more than 25 PB has happened 7 times, including 3 times during a pandemic.
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“In our opinion, this non -standard movement reflects the fact that the council has been delayed for a long time with discounts, underestimating the force of disinflation and the scale of cooling the economy” – emphasized analysts.
In the opinion of PKO BP in a press release after the MPC meeting, “at this stage the council does not want to announce further reductions”. Despite this, the bank's experts expect the MPC to continue foot reductions. According to PKO BP, the next ones will be at the level of 25 PB and stretched in time. The next ones are expected in summer and autumn. In the summer – as representatives of the bank forecast – inflation will decrease to the destination of the National Bank of Poland and amount to 3.5 percent. rdr. NBP inflationary is 2.5 percent. +/- 1 point percent The autumn reduction is to be conducive to data on stable energy prices for households.
“In our opinion, at the end of 2025, the reference rate will be 4.75 percent next year we expect reductions by another 100 PB, ultimately up to 3.75 percent” – Analysts predict.
They noticed that the MPC in a press release still draws attention to the high uncertainty about, among others demand pressure, labor market, energy carriers and fiscal policy. PKO BP added that the council also assessed that the pace of economic growth in the first quarter of this year. It will probably be slightly lower than in the fourth quarter of 2024, although a month ago she thought the result would be similar.
Analysts Credit Agricole also focus on 100 pb.
The Monetary Policy Council in 2025 will reduce interest rates by a total of 100 points. base – assessed Credit Agricole analysts in a commentary on Wednesday's decision of the MPC. In their opinion, the next rate discounts will occur in July.
“The content of the message after the MPC meeting is in line with our scenario of further relief of monetary policy, which will most likely take place in July this year, when the Council gets acquainted with the results of the latest inflation projection and re -reduces interest rates by 50 pb. Support for this scenario is our short -term inflation forecast, according to which it will be a further significant decline in 3 percent, and the July projection of the NBP will again outline the prospect of returning to the MPC in 2026 ” – Credit Agricole analysts assessed. “However, we do not exclude the scenario in which the council will continue the reduction of the foot in June and July, and their scale will be reduced to 25 pb.” – they pointed out.
They emphasized that in accordance with the Credit Agricole forecast, in 2025 the MPC would reduce interest rates by a total of 100 PB. “We also consistently assume that in the coming quarters the increase in energy prices will be limited, which we justify the strong decrease in inflation we expect in the second half of this year and its return to the inflation target in III KW 2026” – they stated.
In the assessment of Credit Agricole analysts, the content of the Wednesday message after the council meeting is neutral for the gold rate and the profitability of Polish bonds.
Santander: Another reduction in interest rates can be in July
Another reduction in interest rates is possible in July – said the chief economist Santander Bank Polska Piotr Bielski. In his opinion, there will be a reduction in foot by 25 points. base.
“The decision was announced at 15:47, which is quite late, which in our opinion signals that the discussion about this movement at the council meeting was intensive. The official message published at 16:15 (a little later than usual) did not contain clear tips as to the next months – it wrote (as in previous months) that subsequent decisions would depend on the data, and the fact of the uncertainty was the situation of the market work, energy prices and subsequent decisions on the front of fiscal policy, as well as inflation abroad, including the effects of changes in commercial policy, “wrote Bielski.
The expert emphasized that in the announcement the change of feet was defined as “adaptation”. He assessed this as a signal that Wednesday's reduction was not the beginning of the monetary policy soothing cycle.
“We think that the most likely scenario is a break in June (because the next monthly set will not provide strong arguments according to us for further resolving politics). Another reduction in interest rates may take place in July, when a new NBP projection is published and this is currently our base scenario. However, the scale of today's traffic (-50 PB instead of cautious -25 pb) Signals of the initial commitment as to the further course of the feet may also mean that it was a one -time adjustment, “said Santander's chief economist.
He added that the Thursday conference of the NBP President Adam Glapiński will be important for market expectations, because he can give tips on further activities of the MPC.
“For now, we stick to our base scenario, in which the MPC will reduce interest rates by 25 PB in July and keep them unchanged until the end of the year, in a situation where inflation stabilizes slightly below 3.5 percent between July and Grudowo, and economic growth will be gently accelerating,” wrote Bielski.
