Nicușor Dan has a difficult mission in his attempt to overthrow the situation in the first round of the presidents, when George Simion imposed categorically. Professor Corneliu Bjola explains, in an analysis for “Adevărul”, which would be the double challenge to which Nicușor Dan will have to cope to overcome in round 2.
Nicușor Dan struggles in the attempt to overturn the situation in the first round, after the Catgoric victory obtained by George Simion. Basically, George Simion managed to convince almost 41% of those who voted in the first round.
Nicușor Dan can repeat the course of Traian Basescu and Klaus Iohannis
This is what things look like, apparently, but it is known that the paper calculations often do not transpose in reality, but new elements appear, which completely change things. This is also the reason why Nicușor Dan does not abandon a fight in which although he starts with the second chance, he can change the course of events and everything to run in his favor. It would not be a singular case. The very recent history of Romania is the best proof.
Just as today Nicușor Dan leaves only with the second chance, he left in 2004 Traian Basescu, after the prime minister, Adrian Nastase, won the first round. What followed is known: Traian Basescu defeated seemingly surprising and followed his first term of president at the Cotroceni Palace.
And as proof that nothing is nailed, over a decade, more precisely over 11 years, everything would be repeated almost indigo. Klaus Iohannis was shattered in the first round of the elections by another former prime minister, Victor Ponta, and things seemed as clear as possible. But Iohannis and his staff did not agree, and in the second round they won with a comfortable majority, causing Victor Ponta to recognize himself.
The verdict of a somite from Oxford
The political scientist Corneliu Bjola, a diplomacy professor at Oxford University, and director of Oxford Digital Diplomacy Research Group, is convinced that there were no simple coincidences and says that the situation can be repeated, exactly 10 years later since Klaus Iohannis's first victory. In an analysis for “Adevărul”, Corneliu Bjola explains and what will be the biggest challenge for Nicușor Dan in this regard, but also if he will become president. Even if things are not simple, the current general mayor of Bucharest can give the blow. In fact, says Corneliu Bjola, Nicușor Dan will reach Cotroceni if he meets a double challenge.
“For Nicușor Dan, the stakes of these elections come up with a double challenge. On the one hand, he must explain clearly and thoroughly how he intends to reform the weakened system in which the Romanian state works today. Not with generalities or campaign platitudes, but assuming great themes of national interest: relaunching the big files, the recovery of the corruption, The national modernization project ”says Corneliu Bjola.
And that's not all. Professor Corneliu Bjola talks about the fact that Nicușor Dan will have to be chosen, to move to another level. And it will be essential for him to do this, for a higher performance.
“This transition from the level of mayor to the presidential leader – a man capable of dealing with the big problems of the country is essential, not just administrative details.”explains the teacher.
Corneliu Bjola. Photo: Adevărul archive
The signs would be good for those who want Nicușor Dan at Cotroceni Palace. Corneliu Bjola believes he has already shown his qualities. Therefore, he has potential and anyway he would be most entitled to the position of president. Including Marcel Ciolacu's departure, the one who, from the position of prime minister, was also an effect of the pressure exerted by Nicușor Dan, says Corneliu Bjola.
“You already see the first effects of the public pressure generated by Nicușor Dan: In recent weeks he has said that Prime Minister Ciolacu has to leave, and now, this resignation becomes a reality. But the fundamental challenge is only now: Nicușor Dan has to mobilize at least two million pro-European votes. It is to be the vision for Romania.”says Bjola.
What happened in the first round
George Simion and Nicușor Dan obtained the most votes in the first round of elections for the post of president of Romania. According to official figures, at the first poll, on May 5, George Simion convinced almost four million voters, 3,862,761 people to stamp his name on the ballot. In percent, the chief of gold enjoyed almost 41% of the votes, ie 40.96%.
Nicușor Dan was second, but at a considerable distance. The independent candidate enjoying the support of USR gathered 1,979,767 votes, ie 29.99% of the total of those who expressed their preferences.
The difference between the two is almost 20 percent, which means 1,882,994. The calculations show that if Nicușor Dan were convinced by Crin Antonescu and Victor Ponta, he would gather over 3 million extra votes. There is another variant for the current general mayor of Bucharest. Thus, the experts say that Nicușor Dan will be obliged to convince the potential neutral voters, that is, those who did not show up for various reasons.
What does the first survey after round 1 say
Until then, a poll made public by Nicușor Dan's team shows that there is at this moment a slight change in the voting direction in the second round of the presidential elections. According to the survey conducted by Verifield, George Simion stays in the first place in voting, with a score of 38.9%, which means that in three days he lost two percent. However, Nicușor Dan stays in the back, although he went up, and if he was now to get 31.3%, that is, almost 1.5 percent more than in the first round. The second round of the elections will take place on May 18.
