Calculations. How many parliamentarians need a future president George Simion to have a majority of government to make Călin Georgescu Premier. “Marcel Ciolacu made a gift to Simion”
At this moment, George Simion is favorite to win in the second round of the presidential elections on May 18, according to the votes obtained last Sunday. After the resignation of Marcel Ciolacu from the head of the Government, the future president will have a difficult word in the designation of the future prime minister. George Simion has repeated in recent weeks, that he will bring Calin Georgescu to power. Last night, at Digi 24, he said clearly in what position: the prime minister, with a majority in Parliament. For this, however, he needs to recruit many parliamentarians. And there are few.
“I will probably insist on going with Călin Georgescu to some early elections, but I expect to find 50% plus one of the Parliament (…) honestly, I would like to avoid …”, explained George Simion on Tuesday night, at Digi24.
What the calculations in Parliament look like
At this moment, the PSD-PNL-UDMR-NATIONAL WINNORITIITIES Coalition, which has just lost Marcel Ciolacu from the prime minister's forehead, has the majority in Parliament, both in the Senate-68 senators from 134 and at the Chamber of Deputies 174 of 330. In total-242 parliamentarians from 464.
And the pro-European camp also has a party in the Parliament, even if in opposition-USR, with 59 parliamentarians.
Simion needs at least 117 votes, meaning double than they now have gold and can
On the other hand, the gold-party camp has only 116 votes together. In order for a government to be validated, it needs 50%+1 of the votes of the parliamentarians, ie 233. Under these conditions, gold and may need 117 votes.
To these could be added the votes of the MPs Romania Romania of Diana Şoșoaca, declared an opponent of Simion-33 parliamentarians, but 149 votes would not be sufficient. There are 12 non -affiliated deputies, which would lead to the number to 161 and the representatives of the national minorities, who usually vote with the power – 17. In the best case 178 compared to the need for 233.
The variant of a government next to the PSD
The scenario was constantly excluded by Marcel Ciolacu, who said that as long as the PSD president will be, the formation will not make a gold alliance. The future in the position of PSD president of Ciolacu is uncertain, in the party he spoke about the resignation of the entire leadership after the failure in the elections, but it has not yet been held.
Along with PSD, gold and may have a comfortable majority, but it remains to be seen to what extent the largest party in Parliament – PSD – would accept to give up the position of prime minister to Călin Georgescu.
In the event that PSD would join gold and can, together a parliamentary majority of 238 votes, where there is also the possibility that the group of national minorities will join, which would offer the sovereigns 17 more votes. 255.
What could happen after the second round
“Marcel Ciolacu, giving his resignation, made a gift to George Simion. Namely the opportunity to nominate from the beginning a prime minister and to create the main governing tendencies.
After the president is elected on May 18, there will be a whole procedure that will end somewhere at the end of May, he adds.
There is a process of validating the elections, and then the president takes the oath in Parliament, after which the mandate and official consultations with the parliamentary parties begin.
“Mr. Simion has announced that he will nominate for the position of prime minister Călin Georgescu. There is one if-if Călin Georgescu will accept this. If he accepts, then Georgescu will start negotiations for the formation of a majority. I think Georgescu will be very careful, because if he cannot obtain this majority, he will not accept this nomination.”
How could the designated prime minister form a majority
The political scientist also says that in the event that Georgescu will accept, he will create problems of legitimacy to Simion, who could try to compromise this solution.
Cristian Pîrvulescu also talks about the parties that could make a possible majority:
“At this moment, gold together with SOS Romania and may not have the majority to form a government. I doubt that national minorities will be eager to support such a government in the absence of PSD. Those who can give Simion most are PSD. It is possible only with PSD cooperation to impose a prime minister. Such a political formation ”.
What tools does the next president have
They must be appointed three judges at the Constitutional Court, and one of them is appointed by the president.
Also, the future head of state will be present at the NATO summit in June.
“Simion's problem is that he does not have a parliamentary majority. He needs popular support. If the actions he does will not be radical, for example anti-Ukrainian, so that his electorate is satisfied, he will not be able to withstand much,” says Cristian Pîrvulescu.
He also reminds the fact that the president can be suspended, if he does not enjoy popularity:
“” I have heard many people say that the president is a lawyer, prime ministers, controls the services, only that the President of Romania can be suspended very easily. What happened. So, when the president is improper, he can be landed at any time. A president as Simion will be very good. institutional ”.
The political scientist says that Simion is expected to force a regime change from the Cotroceni Palace, using the few tools that they have to try to modify the Constitution, to upset the Parliament, to bring it to the option of the early elections.
“Let's go on the Georgescu scenario: he is proposed and then rejected in the Parliament. Simion proposes once again to Georgescu. He is rejected again in the Parliament. The third time the Parliament will have to decide in advance that Aur wins at this time, in the fanfare, or Georgescu Prime Minister, what will you think about Parliament?”
