A fierce clash in Romania. They will face the “devotee of Trump”
Georgescu cannot run this time, and his role was taken over by the 38-year-old leader of the Unity Union of Romanians (AUR) George Simion, who came to the position of the leader. Survey forecasts indicate that he will almost certainly advance to the second round of elections, which will take place on May 18 and in which two candidates from the first round will compete.
According to Politico, the support for Simion is currently around 30 percent.
The fight for second place promises to be fierce.
According to surveys, the candidate of the ruling coalition, Crin Antonescuis to get 24 percent votes, central independent mayor of Bucharest, Nicusor Dancan get 22 percent, leftist nationalist and former prime minister Victor Ponta She has a chance for 10 % and the reformist Elena Lasconi at 7 percent
However, the surprising result of the November election showed that in recent days before the election in Romania a lot can still change. Diaspora's voices, which are usually not included in the polls, may matter, and many voters still have not made the final decision.
Anti -system moods
Although many voters are not looking for a candidate who could destabilize the important position of Romania in the EU and NATO, this is probably not the most important issue when it comes to internal affairs.
Radu Magdin political analyst says that it should not be assumed that voters will mobilize against the candidate about extremist views, taking into account the deep The dissatisfaction of society in corruption and ineffectiveness of the main parties -Social Democratic Party (PSD) and the National-Liberal Party (PNL).
– Simion is the main representative of strong anti -system moods in a Romanian society, so it will only turn out whether those who do not necessarily support the system, but are looking for more mainstream options, manage to oppose the anti -system wave – says the expert.
Here's what a potential second round of elections may look like on May 18.
Mainstream man: Crin Antonescu
Former leader of PNL Crin Antonescu has A good chance of promotion to the second round and represents the ruling coalition consisting of PSD, PNL and the Democratic Union of Hungarians in Romania.
The disadvantage of Antonescu is that it will be seen as the face of the old order PSD and PNL – parties to which the patience of public opinion has exhausted. On the other hand, these groups focus on experienced activists who can influence influence throughout the country and mobilize voters.
Flashdata and Atlasintel polls suggest that Antonescu can overcome Simills in the second round.
Theoretically, his political origin provides him with wide support of voters, as well as a party apparatus and regional bastions, which can be a powerful force. – Together [PNL i PSD] They have over 75 percent Mayors in Romania – says Remus Stefureac, political analyst and director of the Inscop Research poll.
Mayors of small towns and villages They can mobilize voting voters for candidates of their party, emphasizing easier access to financing local projects if the country is ruled by one of them.
Crin Antonescu, April 2025.
Regional policy in Romania can be an absolute business. Some local politicians are threatened to reduce the minimum income guaranteed to those who do not support them. Others offer money, often around 20 euros (85 PLN), especially in the countryside, for voting for their candidate. Although these practices are illegal, the authorities often turn a blind eye to them.
Political business
A person who was provided with anonymity because of security describes how tactics were used to make tens of thousands of people to support Antonescu during a rally in a city in the south of Romania a few weeks ago. Politico contacted the organizers of the event, but did not receive an immediate answer.
However, Antonescu's three -party support can also be his weakness. According to Stefureac, one candidate is difficult to speak to supporters Three different partiesespecially since PSD and PNL are usually enemies.
Wide local party networks did not help their candidates in the victory in the November election. When PSD and PNL issued their candidates, “they obtained a total of only 30 % of votes,” says Stefureac.
Siegfried Mureșan, MP of PNL to the European Parliament, expected that in the first round they voted for Dana, the mayor of Bucharest, in the second round they would support Antonescu to block Simills. – This is not their first choice. However, no matter how much they like him, They don't want George Simion to become president – says the politician.
Antonescu also uses equal support both women and men – While men prefer Simills, as explained by Andrea Roman, general director of the Atlasintel poll.
Antonescu also has the greatest support among people over 60.
Selection of city residents: Nicusor Dan
The Flashdata survey indicates that Dan will lose to Simion in the second round. In turn, the latest Atlasintel data show that the candidate is slightly.
Dan enjoys a lot of support in large urban agglomerations among voters who are usually well educated and wealthy – results from survey data. However, it is less popular outside of large cities, and in his current campaign he has not taken advantage of the opportunity to direct his message to the inhabitants of rural areas, small cities and low -income people – says Stefureac.
The votes of Romanians living may be decisive abroadwho usually reject the political establishment candidates – says Otilia NUTU, an analyst for public policy at the Think Tank Expert Forum. Voters from abroad can constitute up to 7-8 percent. voters, which has a significant impact on the election result.
Nicusor Dan, April 2025.
– Some vote for anti -system reformers, others for anti -system extremists – says the expert. – It all depends on who will go to the urns.
Dan is the second term of office of the mayor of Bucharest. Is known for many years Fighting with “real estate market sharks”which he accuses of collusion with political establishment in order to obtain the best areas for development and building on them with a lot of profit, often regardless of the preservation of historic buildings or areas.
Dan used it against Antonescu during television presidential debates this week, accusing him of helping in the privatization of large areas of public real estate at a time when he was the minister for youth and sport at the end of the 90s. Some of these transactions were later considered by the courts to be unlawful by the courts – said Dan.
Antonescu denied any collusion with the real estate market giants and accused the opponent of the inability to provide any evidence connecting him with them.
Dan founded the center -right Reformer party Association of Romania's salvation (USR), which he left in 2017, and won his first mayor's mandate thanks to the support of PNL.
Mureau Muresan predicts that in the second round fewer Antonescu voters will be facilitated than vice versa. – Some of the voters are liberals, others conservatives, and others are very conservative – and some, especially voters of the Socialist Party, are partly the elderly, less educated people, sometimes from rural areas – he talks about Antonescu voters.
Chameleon: Victor Ponta
Victor Ponta, former prime minister on behalf of the social democrats, who became a nationalist, achieves mixed results in polls. If he manages to go to the second round, the latest Atlasintel data indicate that he will lose with Simion.
However, Stefureac sees him as “a candidate who has a chance – theoretically and based on the data we currently have – create a wider one Coalition against Simion“He warns that the radically new dynamics of the second round makes the current polls on extra time to interpret.
Victor Ponta, May 2025
Pontty's old political views make him like the typical voters of the Social Democratic Party who may not be convinced of the PSD supported by the PSD, but the center -right Antonescu. His program “Romania in the first place” can also speak to voters who voted in Georgescu in November last year, say analysts.
Nutu from Expert Forum says that Ponta improved his results in the polls before he said at the beginning of this month that as the prime minister in 2014 he allowed the flood of several villages over the Danube to avoid floods in the capital of Serbia, Belgrade.
Ponta stated that he had chosen to save his life in Serbia instead of fields in Romania. He said that as a result he received honorary Serbian citizenship. This is not a classic move aimed at winning votes.
Weaker candidate: Elena Lascononi
The president of the USR Elena Lasconi, a former TV journalist, seems to lose a wave of support, which took her to the second round of elections canceled last year, mainly due to the entrance to the Dana race.
The leaders of her own party abandoned her at the beginning of this month to support Dan. According to them, he is the only reformer candidate with real chances for promotion to the second round.
NUTU says that it is not clear what impact on voters will be abandoned by Lasconi by party leaders. Some have considered this move unfair and will want to punish the USR, which may result in a fewer votes for both the candidate and Dana.
Elena Lascononi, April 2025.
On the eve of the first round, Lasconi published photos that are to show Dana and Ponta during a meeting with the former deputy director of the Romanian intelligence services, whose goal was to discuss this year's elections. Her goal is to present a given system as a man of the system and connect him with the controversial former spy in the country tired of the intelligence services in politics.
Both Dan and Ponta stated that The photos are fakeand the meeting never took place. They accused Lasconi of playing the main political trend. Dan and Ponta reported on Friday about committing a crime against her.
If Lasconi overcomes adversity and qualifies to the second round, according to Atlasintel, he will beat Simills with three points.
