According to the document of the Ministry of Finance, the average annual dynamics of the prices of consumer goods and services in 2025 will amount to 4.5 percent. This, thanks to a positive inflation surprise at the beginning of the year, less than 5 percent. founded in the budget. Let us remind you that in the first three months CPI inflation was 4.9 percent. year to year, and according to the initial reading in April, it fell to 4.2 percent.
The Ministry of Finance estimated that in the following quarters a gradual decrease in inflation is expected, resulting from a lower dynamics of labor costs and a gradual decrease in base inflation.
“Energy prices will contribute to the maintenance of inflation above the NBP target, in particular gas prices for households, which from January 1, 2025 increased by 6 % of energy prices for individual recipients will not change due to the development of raw materials prices on world markets. Therefore, there will be no need to extend the discs. An additional factor affecting the increase in inflation, is written.
It was added that in 2026 consumer inflation will be on average 3.8 percent. “The main factors that will affect the decrease in inflation in average annual perspective will be a further, gradual decrease in base inflation and a limited increase in import prices, related to the decreasing prices of energy raw materials in global markets. In addition, further gradual excise duty increases are envisaged, in accordance with the amendment to the excise duty act adopted this year (so -called road map).
According to the Ministry of Finance, from 2027, the rate of increasing consumer prices will be permanently in the permissible band of deviations from the inflation target of the National Bank of Poland. The average annual inflation according to the assumptions of the Ministry of Finance is to amount to 3 percent. in 2027, 2.8 percent in 2028 and 2.5 percent in 2029 The NBP point goal is 2.5 percent, but the tolerated compartment of deviations is 1.5-3.5 percent.
See also: The minister comments on the latest economic data. “Signs of revival”
More on the report on the report on the implementation of the implementation of the medium-term budget and structural plan for 2025-2028 and many years of macroeconomic assumptions for 2025-2029 we write here.
The ministry also revealed data on the expected pace of economic growth. Forecasts assume that Poland's GDP in 2025 will grow by 3.7 percent, which is slightly slower than the 3.9 percent assumed in the budget.
In 2027, the growth rate of GDP will be similar to the potential and will be 3.0 percent, and after this year there will be a slowdown in growth by, among others, the announced fiscal consolidation-assessed the Ministry of Finance in the document “Long-term macroeconomic assumptions for 2025-2029”.
“Economic growth will still be supported by strong domestic demand, powered by the further use of funds from the KPO loan part, EU funds under the financial perspective 2021–2027, as well as a continuation of the supply of military equipment” – wrote MF.
“According to the current state of knowledge, a significant part of these impulses will expire in 2028–2029, which will contribute to the slowdown of the economic growth dynamics in the final years of the forecast horizon” – added.
As a result, the GDP growth rate will lower to 2.7 percent. in 2028 and 2.6 percent In 2029, “planned fiscal consolidation will also affect the economic growth path” – it was written in the document of the Ministry of Finance.
