The culmination of the Tuesday meeting of the government was the adoption of the “report on the implementation of the medium-term budget and structural plan for 2025-2028” and “many years of macroeconomic assumptions for 2025-2029”. This is an important document, which is forced by EU regulations.
In the communiqué of the Ministry of Finance, which we describe here in more detail, However, we only find predictions of the main economic indicators for this year.
In short: forecasts assume that Polish GDP in 2025 will increase by 3.7 percent, while the budget was assumed by 3.9 percent. growth. Total investments in 2025 are to increase by 8.9 percent. in real termsinflation will amount to 4.5 percent, the BAEL unemployment rate will stay around 3 %, and The sector deficit will be reduced to 6.3 of 6.6 percent. GDP.
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In an interview with Business Insider, the Chief Economist Santander Bank Polska Piotr Bielski admits that the concentration of the Ministry of Finance's message only this year is puzzling.
The reduction of the deficit can be extended
– The most interesting are forecasts for the coming years. I miss the trajectory of the deficit reduction in the following years – indicates Piotr Bielski. Expects a slide in the field of lowering deficitswhich will probably be more difficult than before. This is related to, among others with a trade war. The Ministry of Finance itself admits that this is an important risk factor in forecasts.
– These are not very comforting news. The current plan assumed a lowering of the deficit to 3 percent. GDP within four years. I'm afraid it won't work – warns Santander economist.
It reassures that he does not expect major repercussions on the part of the European Commission, which should understand the situation.
The government is very optimistic
– Looking at the government's forecasts regarding GDP dynamics (3.7 percent this year – editor's note), although they are lower than in the budget assumptions, they are still optimistic. I expect economic growth at a level of less than 3.5 percent, and the median in Bloomberg was recently around 3.2 percent. In the context of what is happening in the world, the government's forecast is quite brave – comments Piotr Bielski.
The economist also draws attention to another “ambitious plan”. It is about investments that have failed for a long time and did not allow the economy to move even more dynamically.
– We think it won't be that good. In our forecast, investments this year do not grow faster than 7 percent. The government has almost 9 percent Fingers crossed. This is an ambitious plan, especially with much weaker performance in the previous year – says the expert.
He admits that the end of the year may even be double -digit in the event of an increase in investment, but the beginning was weak. For this reason, the average for the whole year will certainly not be so good.
