A new phase of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine begins. “The basis of Trump's plan”
Mariia Tsiptsura: The decision to talk between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelnski in the Vatican can we consider it successful?
Volodymyr Fesenko: Of course, it is of positive importance. First of all – this is important for relations between Ukraine and the United States. Secondly – this is important for personal relationships between Trump and Zelanski. After meeting in the oval office, we heard many sharp grades regarding the fact that these relationships were completely destroyed and that Trump hates Zelanski. The meeting in the Vatican, however, confirmed that Trump is much more pragmatic than to write about it. It is also flexible enough to change your mind.
In addition, we must understand that Trump has its tactics, which is part of aggressive pressure. But if you withstand this aggressive pressure, it begins to negotiate. It is known that the initiative of the meeting in the Vatican came from Trump. And it is important that Zelanski drew conclusions after the events in the oval office and conducted this meeting constructively. He was able to establish optimal communication with Trump. At least for now. And this brought a positive result.
What?
We managed to overcome the new phase of the conflict – finally there was a certain tension between the USA and Ukraine in connection with peace conversations. At the beginning of last week we heard the exchange of sharp comments, but now the situation has clearly improved. Therefore, there is no doubt that the conversations in the Vatican were productive and provided a positive trend in bilateral relations between Ukraine and the United States and in negotiations on the end of the war. However, it is too early to draw conclusions.
Improvement of US -Ukraine relations. “Trump is better to listen”
Can we say that this meeting can bring a positive result in strategic issues related to the end of the war? Did the American president start listening to the arguments of Ukraine?
Trump has become better in listening to Ukraine. He was critical of Putin and suggested that Russia could try to cheat him and intentionally delay negotiations. Trump also spoke about the fire of Ukraine, which Putin intensified. As for the peace plan, a new phase of these negotiations begins. Talks will take place around the plan proposed by Trump. It is quite harsh, abstract and is subject to corrections, but will be the basis. There are reasons to expect the US to negotiate more or less compromise and will not make demands only to Ukraine.
But Russia still presents the same list of demands. We just read this in an interview with foreign minister Sergei Ławrowo.
The Russians began an active counteroffensive. On the one hand, they say they are ready to negotiate without any preliminary conditions. At the same time, Lavrov gives interviews and says that Russia's position when it comes to “regulating” the conflict in Ukraine has not changed. However, we must understand that Lavrov is not Putin. There are contradictions in the positions of the director of the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RFPI) Kiriłła Dmitryijew and Sergei Ławrov. The first claims that negotiations with Trump are a priority. The second says that the war against Ukraine should be the most important. In this case, Putin intentionally applies the tactics of a good and bad negotiator to the USA. The good is Dmitriew, who focuses on business and active contacts. And the bad is Lavrov.
All Russia's statements are proof that serious negotiations have begun – both private and public, between Russia and the United States. It is not important what is presented in public, but if and how negotiations start. And most importantly, what they will apply to: suspension of weapons or a peace agreement taking into account Russia's demands.
What will the agreement look like? “There is no other way”
Peace agreement or surrender?
Submission is when the demands are presented and you need to sign what was laid on the table. There is nothing and there will be nothing like that, but there will be concessions from both Ukraine and Russia. There is no other way to end the war. The most realistic scenario is a weapon suspension agreement. Peace talks will be continued in parallel. In key issues, for example territorial, I do not see the possibility of compromise between Ukraine and Russia. This applies to the status of regions annexed by Russia.
We see statements of the USA, Russia and Ukraine. Are we closer to the suspension of the weapon?
I think so. A chance to start negotiations on the suspension of weapons opened. But whether this chance will turn into real agreements still remains an open issue.
