publication
2025-04-28 11:42
The Ministry of Finance decided not to wait for the expected reduction of interest rates at the National Bank of Poland and in advance reduced the interest rate on retail tax bonds. This is probably not the last such move this year.
From April 3, it is basically determined that at the meeting next week, the Monetary Policy Council will reduce interest rates. What's more, it will most likely be two sharp cuts, 50 pb. Each. In the opinion of most economists, the first of them is to take place next Wednesday, May 7. The second is probably waiting for us in June or (sooner) in July. After this 100-point reduction, the Council is to make a pause to see if the scenario assuming a decrease in CPI inflation to a 2.5 % target will actually materialize.
While the reduction of interest rates in the NBP is a good and long -awaited message for debtors, for savings owners it means a significant deterioration in the possibility of defending capital against inflation. This will not fall to zero. It will only be a little lower than today (or will not be). And interest on bank deposits has been melting for months. Now the same happens with the interest rate of retail bonds of the Treasury.
The advice takes a cleaver, the minister uses a scalpel
By the end of April, the same interest rate of retail tax bonds is the same as in the previous months. Supporters of secure percentages can still “tap” permanent interest in the amount of 5.95% offered by 3-year TOS bonds. Also, the papers in the following years indexed with CPI inflation in the first interest period (i.e. for the next 12 months) offer over 6% of interest. This is a lot above the expected CPI inflation for the next four quarters. The March projection of the NBP shows that in the second quarter of 2026 it will amount to 3.8%.
| Bond | Interest in the first interest period | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Offer from April 2025 | Offer from May 2025 | Change of MDM | |
| Annual ROR | 5.75% | 5.75% | 0.00% |
| 2-year-old Dor | 5.90% | 5.90% | 0.00% |
| 3-year-old Tos | 5.95% | 5.75% | -0.20% |
| 4-year-old COI | 6.30% | 6.10% | -0.20% |
| 10-year-old Edo | 6.55% | 6.35% | -0.20% |
| Source: Bankier.pl based on the information of the Ministry of Finance. | |||
Until last Thursday, there was hope that the April interest rate of retail tax bonds would also apply in May. Unfortunately, the Minister of Finance decided not to wait for the MPC decisions and in advance reduced the interest rate on the papers he offered. Interest offered by 3-year TOS, 4-year-old COI and 10-year-old EDO have been reduced by 20 PB. in the case of the first interest period. Inflation margins in the case of COI and EDO remained unchanged, as well as drastically increased fees for early redemption last year.
– Interest rate correction in May is aimed at adapting the offer of savings bonds to current market conditions. This involves a small reduction in the interest rate on bonds with a incidence of 3 years and above. At the same time, we kept attractive margins in subsequent interest periods for all offered bonds with variable interest and preferences for the retail segment relative to the wholesale market – wrote in an official communication of the Ministry of Finance, Deputy Minister of Finance, Finance, Jurand Drop.
The interest rate on the variables of annual (ROR) and two -year (Dor) has remained unchanged. However, in the case of these papers, the amount of interest is calculated every month and is a derivative of the NBP reference rate. And this in just over a week will most likely be reduced by 50 pb. So in the case of these papers, their future interest rate will probably fall even more than bonds with a longer maturity.
The end of the times of real positive interest rates?
The April decision of the Ministry of Finance is part of the trend of a decrease in the interest rate of bank deposits visible for two years and a successive reduction in the interest rate of retail bonds of the Treasury. The latter constituted (and often still constitute) a more favorable alternative to a constantly deteriorating banking offer. Therefore, in 2024 a new sales record was broken. The Ministry of Finance issued retail bonds for PLN 82.6 billion, and even despite the deterioration of the offer in September 2024.
It is also worth remembering that this is not the first reduction in the interest rate on these papers in the last quarters. The first reduction of interest offered by retail MF papers took place in November 2023, after violent and very surprising “pre -election” interest rates in the NBP. Also in 2024, the Ministry of Finance cut the coupons of its papers, a total of 45-65 PB. depending on the series. The last such reduction took place in September 2024.
So there was a lot of time to prepare a wallet for lower interest rates in Poland. According to economists, the NBP reference rate in the perspective of another several months can fall up to 3.5% (and maybe even lower). In such a situation, the interest rate on relatively safe ways to place capital will be close or even below CPI inflation. Therefore, we are threatened with a return to the situation of 2017-24, when it was impossible to save savings from inflation in a safe way.
