We would like to remind you that President Adam Glapiński sounded very pigeon at the April conference. – Considering the last data, it can be assessed that in the near future there may be a space for reduction of interest rates – said the head of the NBP, who at the head of a ten -person RPP, and in case of a draw while voting, his opinion is decisive.
The president asked if the reduction could take place in May or June, i.e. before the July projection (previously the market had seen at this moment as the start of discounts), he replied that Cutting can occur in May or in each subsequent month. He suggested that in his opinion two decisions “adapting” interest rates of 0.50 percentage points could be a better option. Anyway than starting a cycle (i.e. discounts at every meeting).
At least five people willing to reduce
The MPC, fighting with increased inflation, maintains high interest rates and April is 19. A month in a row, when the NBP reference rate, the most important for the Polish economy, is 5.75 percent. President Glapiński in April suggested that ultimately in 2026, if disinflation would lastfeet could be located around 3.5 percent, which would mean a total of 2.25 percentage points. discounts.
There is a lot of indications that finally in the MPC – and at the May meeting – there may be the right number of people voting for cutting the cost of money. The analysis of recent statements shows that at least Half of the members of the Council (including the President of the NBP, which can be crucial in the event of a draw) is ready to vote at a meeting in two weeks.
The MPC began the cycle of the largest rates for a long time in October 2021 from 0.1 percent. The reference reached 6.75 percent. In September 2022
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CSO, NBP, own study
Wiesław Janczykspeaking a week ago, he joined Adam Glapiński, Ludwik Kotecki, Cezary Kochalski and Przemysław Litwiniuk, who in recent days pointed to a high probability of reduction of interest rates at the next meetings.
He estimated that by the end of the year it is possible to cut the cost of money by 0.50-100 percentage points. He added that the descent with feet up to 3.5 percent. In 2026 it is currently a difficult to implement scenario. He pointed out that the US offensive customs policy, according to the currently available estimates, will cause the world economy to slow downincluding the economies of European countries, to which Poland exports goods and services, which may limit the economic activity of enterprises and reduce the tendency to shopping from consumers (last week's EBC decision on foot reductions and communication indicates that this bank sees this bank mainly a threat to the growth of the economy, not inflation). He emphasized that increased inflation is still a global challenge.
Ludwik Kotecki He said that in May the council would not be discussing or lowering the feet, But he will decide about two things: on the scale of the May reduction and whether it will be a one -time adjustment or the beginning of the cycle. If it is a one -time adjustment, then the scale of the reduction will be larger, in the case of the cycle, the first step would be more cautious. Kotecki himself suggested that he would be inclined to start a cycle of reductions, with a total scale of 1 percentage point. until the end of the year.
“Jastrzębomierz”, developed by PAP and published by PKO Research economists on April 15. The higher the note, the more the hawk attitude. The dot on the time axis signals the earliest moment of foot reductions.
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PKO Research, PAP
Przemysław Litwiniuk said that by mid -2025 there is a space to lower the feet by 0.50 percentage points, in one or two steps, depending on the data, and in the whole year a total of 1 percentage point. (After bringing the reference rate to 5.25 percent at the end of June, he sees another reduction by 0.50 percentage points around November). He referred to the pigeon return of the NBP president at the last conference, saying that prof. Glapiński “is currently without errors in the area of monetary policy.” According to Lithuania, the MPC was already in April the basics for the reduction of the feet, but the markets were not prepared for it, which was the main obstacle to making such a decision.
Cezary Kochalski He told the Bloomberg agency that in a short term the likelihood of interest rate reductions increases and that he may consider the reduction of NBP rates in May by up to 0.50 percentage points.
Two uncertain voices for a reduction in May, one excluded
Henryk Wnorowski and Ireneusz Dąbrowski presented more subdued positions, and Joanna Tyrowicz – reluctance to any discounts. In recent days, i.e. after the pigeon reimbursement of President Glapiński, we have not yet heard the comments of Iwona Duda and Gabriela Masłowska, whose attitude in the previous months was often convergent with the position of the head of the NBP (i.e. rather hawk).
Henryk Wnorowski He assessed that in the whole of 2025 the field for reduction of the foot is not large, However, he sees the premises that in May would allow him with great calmness and responsibility to support the application for a reduction of the feet by 0.25 percentage points. At the same time, he recommended waiting for the July projection. In his opinion, in the context of percentage decisions, further monthly inflation readings and data on consumption dynamics will be important, which remains the main driving force of the development of the Polish economy. H.wnorowski pointed out that the sluggish revival of the economic situation will be conducive to decisions to reduce the degree of monetary policy restrictiveness. He added that the issue of mandatory reserve level will be discussed by the MPC in the near future.
Ireneusz Dąbrowski He estimated that “only” July is a safe moment to reduce interest rates, although he did not rule out that the decision could be made earlier. He stated that wage dynamics will be a key factor. Indicated that The pace of disinflation is faster than assumed in the March projection, but it is still not certain whether it is fast enough to lower your feet in May. According to him, the decision on an earlier reduction carries a certain risk, and the US customs policy and the abolition of the government shield planned for the fourth quarter to the 4th quarter remain an important source of uncertainty. In his opinion, a possible reduction should initially be adaptable, with a possible start of the reduction cycle later, depending on the results of the July projection. A member of the Republic of Poland also pointed to the possibility of adapting interest rates for several degrees, as was the autumn of 2023, when the reductions were carried out in asymmetrical steps. A few days earlier he indicated that the MPC did not have to wait with decisions for the next (July) projection.
Joanna Tyrowicz, Known for her very hawk attitude (from November 2023, which is largely a demonstrative nature, she submits an application for a increase in foot by 2 percentage points), she saidthat in the light of March and numerous previous projections, any reduction (interest rates) would be today from the MPP mandate and it would be harmful to the Polish economy. Her latest statements suggest that it is closer to refraining from applications for increases rather than supporting foot reductions. A member of the MPC said that if the salary dynamics actually slowed down (as indicated by data on the company sector), then maybe now the NBP reference rate at 5.75 percent. It is enough to bring inflation to the target.
Economic data will affect the MPC. How many rates in 2025?
Already on Tuesday and Wednesday, April 22 and 23, we will learn important data from the real sphere of the real Polish economy, which may affect the attitude of the Republic of Poland members at the May meeting. – This is data on employment and payroll in the enterprise sector and retail sales. They are so important that they can confirm markets in the belief that interest rates in May will be reduced, and only the issue of the scale of this movement remains – said Monika Kurtek, the main economist of Bank Pocztowy.
Analysts have different forecasts regarding the tempo and scale of cuts. “We expect that the application for a reduction of the NBP rates will appear at May and it cannot be ruled out that they will reduce them by 0.50 percentage points later in the year we should be dealing with a continuation of the loosening of monetary policy. At the end of 2025, we expect a reference rate at 4.50 percent.” – ING Bank Śląski experts wrote. This would mean total loosening by 1.25 percentage points. this year.
Economists of PKO BP assume that the MPC will lower their feet by 0.50 percentage points in May. (Bank Millennium experts have a similar forecast), although they emphasize that a smaller scale scenario cannot be ruled out, i.e. 0.25 percentage points. They expect total reductions this year by 1 percentage point
“We expect that the soothing cycle will start in May, and the reductions will amount to a total of 1.25 percentage points in 2025. Although there is a risk that the MPC will decide to wait for the publication of subsequent NBP macroeconomic forecasts in July, we think that this will not affect our expected reference rate at the end of the year at the end of the year 4.50 %.” – Citi Commercial Economists wrote in the latest report.
Investors have greater appetites for cutting feet. The market values that by the end of the year there could be reductions in total by as much as 2 percentage points, which would bring the NBP reference rate to a ceiling of 3.75 percent, the lowest in three years. According to economists, Santander Bank Polska, however, these expectations are too exuberant.
Author: Maciej Rudke, Business Insider Polska journalist
