The future of work in Romania does not look good: “We will lose 1.7 million workers. Six million risks running out of job”

The European Institute in Romania forecasts a reduction of the population of approximately 2.5 million people, of which 1.7 million work, until 2040. In the context of an accelerated digitization of the economy, in Romania only 28% of Romanians have basic digital skills.

Romania will lose about 1.7 million workers in the next 15 years. Photo: freepick.com

“The population of Romania, according to Eurostat projections tends to decrease significantly by 2040, with an estimated reduction of approximately 2.5 million people“, It is shown in a study published last days, by the European Institute of Romania (IER), a public institution with legal personality, which supports, through the activities carried out, the formulation and application of the policies that arise from the Romanian State State Statute (EU). The purpose of the study was to analyze the future of work in Romania.

This decrease is caused by both the negative natural increase and the continuous emigration of the young and active population.

Romania, the most severe decrease in the EU population

“The most pessimistic scenarios suggest an even more accentuated decrease in the population, in the absence of effective migration policies. Within the European Union, Romania is among the countries that will face the most severe demographic decrease, thus affecting its economic position and long -term competitiveness.”is shown in the study.

The study analyzes the impact of demographic changes on the future of the Romanian Labor Market, until 2040, carried out in the second chapter, highlighted, besides the demographic decline, the following aspects:

Demographic aging. “By 2040, the median age of the population will increase significantly, exceeding the EU average. The increasing proportion of people over 65, compared to the active population, will lead to an increase in demographic dependence rates.the study shows.

Addiction rates and regional disparities. “The rate of economic dependence, according to Eurostat projections tends to increase considerably by 2040, both at national and European level. In Romania, these addiction rates are relatively lower than the EU average, but the growth tendency is obvious. There are significant disappearances between the different counties of the country, some urban regions being more economically diversified. For example, Cluj and Timiș counties have lower addiction rates, while mono -industrial and predominantly rural counties, such as Teleorman and Vâlcea, are facing high addiction rates and major economic and social challenges.”, The quoted source shows.

The impact of exogenous factors. “The random exogenous factors, such as the Covid-19 Pandemia and Russia's aggression against Ukraine had a disruptive impact on demographic and migration behaviors. These events accelerated some negative tendencies, such as decreased life expectancy and modifying migration flows, thus influencing the short-term and long-term population structure” shows the study.

The cumulative effects of the pronounced decrease of the total population (even in the case of the most optimistic scenario – with the null balance of migration), and the accentuated tendency of its aging, will be reflected both in terms of available work resources and in terms of productivity.

According to Eurostat forecasts, the working population (20-64 years) will decrease until 2040 by approx. 1.7 million people, which means a discount by approx. 15.4%.11 In the EU, this decrease will be only 6.4%. The proportion of the working population, 20-64 years, in the total population, will represent CCA. 54.9% both in Romania and in the EU, the source quoted shows.

“The active population of Romania is designed to decrease by approx. 15%, based on the decrease of the population aged and the constant maintenance of the activity rate, at a value of approx. 72.4%, well below that registered in the EU (81.5%)”, Concludes the mentioned study.

The future of work in 2040: fewer people, more technology

The study published by the European Institute in Romania was commented by the specialists from Hacking Work, the first social, civic and educational project in Romania who speak clearly, brave and honest about the labor market and about the relations between employees and employers.

“What jobs will disappear, which will appear and how we are preparing for a labor market at the intersection between the demographic crisis and the technological explosion? In a Romania where the active population decreases rapidly, and the digital skills are still rare, the future of work In 2040 it will depend on our ability to adapt ”is shown in an article published on the Hacking Work blog.

The estimates for 2040 are clear: we will have about 1.7 million people fit for less than now, according to the latest report published by the European Institute in Romania.

To this situation contributes to decrease the number of births, the continuous departure of young people in other countries and the rapid increase of the average population. The effects are already seen – the pressure on the public systems increases, and our long -term economic potential decreases.

“At the same time, there is a global technological change, one in which we risk staying behind if we do not adapt. This is because, in us, only 28% of people have basic digital skills, and only 9% have more advanced knowledge. We want a digital economy, but without prepared people, this will remain difficult to reach”, It is shown in the article.

“Over 6 million Romanians, regardless of age, will have to learn basic digital skills”

With the decrease of the active population, but also with the digitalization, many trades will disappear. The most affected will be repetitive jobs, which do not require high qualifications and can be easily automated – from industry, agriculture, transport or administration.

“In their place, new trades appear: data analysts, software developers, sustainability specialists, renewable energy engineers, digital educators or artificial intelligence experts. Change is not only inevitable, but already visible in the new industries that develop in the increasing requirements of employers”, writes the author of the article, Cristian Halați.

But it is not just about the young people who will enter the labor market.

“By 2040, in order to remain economically active, over 6 million Romanians, regardless of age, will have to learn basic digital skills. Recalification and continuous learning are no longer a bonus, but a necessity. This will mean a common effort from the state, employers and the educational system, to create an efficient learning framework.”, The quoted source shows.

“Romania could get to triple its income per capita by 2040”

“There are good news. Write Halati.

How? “Through investments in education, vocational training, innovation and digitalization. By attracting intelligent investments and policies that reduce the differences between developed and remaining counties. This increase is possible only if all regions are involved in the process of economic transform”, It is shown in the article.

Regions such as Bucharest, Cluj or Iași already benefit from innovation and education ecosystems, attract investments and offer good professional opportunities. In contrast, counties such as Vaslui, Teleorman or Mehedinti are facing the lack of infrastructure, jobs and qualified people. Without a strategy to directly target these areas, Romania risks becoming a two -speed country.

“Investments in education, digitalization and infrastructure must be directed where the most need is, not only where the profit is immediately. This balancing must become an important priority, if we want a Romania that evolves evenly and sustainable”, The quoted article shows.

“Technology will not replace people, change their profile”

“The future of work does not mean only technology and algorithms. Yes, the technology will continue to change the world world, but it will not replace people. What will change is their profile. We will need people who know how to adapt, who have access to education and who are supported to learn and evolve. changes”Writes the author.

Beyond innovation, the real challenge is that no one is left behind – neither in cities, nor villages, nor among the elders.

“The future of work in Romania will not happen by itself. It must be thought, supported and built through well-developed policies, strategic investments and a long-term vision. It is no longer just about economy, but about social balance, individual well-being and the ability of an entire society to go further without leaving people behind.”concluded the analysis.