The United States Trade War with the rest of the world, started by Donald Trump, was gradually reduced to a traditional confrontation with the China themselves, which took on a truly Homerick form: from April 14, Chinese export to the United States was covered with duty of 145 percent, and American exports to China – 125 percent. It is difficult not to expect that in the next few months the trade turnover between the two countries will fall by at least 30-40 percent, which will mean a decrease in Chinese shipments to the United States themselves by $ 140-200 billion. [528-754 mld zł] annually.
At the same time, the list of countries covered by increased duties does not include Russia, whether because of “lack of trade with it” (which is not true), or because of the negotiations that Washington and Moscow are conducting the “Ukrainian” “problem”. Either way, nothing formally prohibits American companies to buy anything from Russia – except for crude oil sanctions, petroleum products, coal and gas, as well as fish and seafood, alcohol and diamonds. And here comes the tempting perspective of “deep modernization” of the Russian creative system of “import substitution”.
As many experts admits, this has not yet brought serious results, which is clearly seen in the aviation industry, where “fully national” planes do not start so far; in the automotive industry, where Chinese cars in Moscow have bolted rated plates and are presented as Russian; Finally, in electronics, where Chinese products have long known for a long time are often sold as domestic innovations.
Let's imagine, however, that the process of a fictitious location of production can be rethinkable, taking into account the changed American customs policy.
In this case, dozens of “high-tech enterprises”-furniture, toys, clothing and consumer electronics-may appear in Russian cities in a few weeks and months. Existing only on paper, these enterprises will start the mass production of various “imported” goods, which differ from Chinese consumer goods more or less as much as Moskwicz 3 [rosyjska wersja SUV-a JAC JS4 na chińskiej licencji] It differs from JAC JS4.
With the “Made in Russia” certificate, they can be offered to American retailers and – which should be emphasized – at extremely attractive prices in the conditions of the customs: more than twice cheaper than in the case of [produktów obłożonych] new duties. If there are problems with the organization of settlements along the way, the main seller of such products may be a company registered for this purpose in any country of the Eurasian Union.
I repeat American law finds nothing illegal in the purchase of Russian production of goods not covered by sanctionsand duties on such goods are either not applied or only 10 percent. In the case of re -export by post -Soviet countries. And if anyone doubts that during the war Russia has made exceptional achievements in the development of their own independent industry, let them read the statements of the highest officials who are very concerned that if relations with the West improved, these successes may be wasted.
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“Alternative globalization”
The proposed scheme looks fantastic – mainly because the zero customs tariff for Russian products sent to the US will not last forever: it will probably be revised as soon as Donald Trump convinces that Vladimir Putin simply plays with him in negotiations, not going to stop the war. However, even if this happens, The possibility of bypassing tariff restrictions by formal withdrawal of Chinese industry to Beijing jurisdiction should not be underestimated.
Of course, if Kazakhstan or Kyrgyzstan suddenly increase the supply of toys, fittings and furniture to America a thousand times in one year, and hats with the inscription “Maga” and American flags will prove to be produced not in China, and Armenia, it can arouse suspicions – but can a multiple increase in the import of mobile phones, office equipment or medical equipment to Member States of the Euroasian Union in the years 2022-2023 caused any restrictions on trade with them through Western powers? As far as I know, no.
The huge increase in customs duties made by the US authorities may have recently seemed to be an economic weapon, which is not there and cannot be defense. But Today, this can be counted with the elements of “alternative globalization”, which has developed as part of the sanctions regime – a system of semi -legal means introduced by you in order to circumvent the restrictions imposed on them and their partners.
“Capturing” Chinese exports to the United States is a historical opportunity for many Beijing countries and a key element of testing the reality of restrictions imposed by Americans. Tens of billions of dollars and the main retailers are at stake, so it would be stupid not to try. And it would be great to achieve in one goals all the indicators of the development of national industry and the increase in exports of goods other than raw materials desired by the Kremlin.
The more that there is no other possibility to ensure such success ….
I’m Ashley Davis as an editor, I’m committed to upholding the highest standards of integrity and accuracy in every piece we publish. My work is driven by curiosity, a passion for truth, and a belief that journalism plays a crucial role in shaping public discourse. I strive to tell stories that not only inform but also inspire action and conversation.
